What Does History Tell Us About Clayton Kershaw's Future?

Thanks for the kick in the balls, Neyer. One of 2 good things going on with the entire franchise, and you gotta tell us it won’t last? Jerk.

I’d kind of forgotten about Ismael Valdez because he’s been out of baseball so long, so I looked him up. He’s only 38 years old! Time for a comeback, Ismael!

As a Dodger fan, I have noted that our managers have gradually increased the pitch counts he’s been allowed to have, and I wonder if that may change his prospects for a better long term career (as opposed to Tommy Lasorda working Fernando into the ground). What we know is that in his first few years he was good, and last year he was great. If he can maintain his ability to limit walks, he has the talent to still be great for years to come. Only time will tell if he’s able to do so.

No need to put in the words American League in front of Cy Young for Dean Chance. Prior to 1967, there was only one Cy Young.

The sliders are definitely worrisome.

But basically the first thing Neyer tells us is that these comparables are not valid, since they don’t take context into account. Yet he uses them as cautionary tales anyway. It appears (at least from an ERA+ perspective) that Kershaw was better than any of these guys at age 23. I’d like to see a better set of comps.

There have been plenty of 23 year olds in recent years to whom you haven’t given this attention. Kershaw has many of the traits you like. He’s a former top prospect status and three solid years to back up this year’s performance. His age 23 season looks in line with what was expected. You’ll likely respond by saying you have nothing against Kershaw, which I believed when you wrote about the Cy Young. But now, I don’t know.

Bottom line: All pitchers are unpredictable. If King Felix gets injured tomorrow, he’ll resemble several pitchers that showed promise early on and couldn’t sustain. I sure hope that doesn’t happen. But why not write about him? Yes, Kershaw likely didn’t deserve the Cy Young (though he’s a fine candidate). But why this article?

In the six seasons from age 22 to age 27, Chance had a 2.69 ERA, and averaged 16 wins a year. He also averaged 265 innings pitched. During that period, he thrice surpassed 275 innings.

My bet is the Kershaw never reaches 265 innings in a season, much less averages that. Teams are smarter about handling pitchers than they were back in Chance’s day, which gives Kershaw an advantage. Anyway, we have no idea if Kershaw might blow out his arm at 27, so let’s enjoy him now.

If you use some more realistic raw numbers like ERA+ of 125 or greater, IP and Ks of 650 or greater through age 23 season you get quite a different list of comparables for Kershaw:

Smokey Joe Wood 152
Walter Johnson 148
Christy Mathewson 139
Bob Feller 137
Dwight Gooden 135
Clayton Kershaw 135
Bert Blyleven 134
Frank Tanana 131
Don Drysdale 128
Felix Hernandez 125

Granted Kershaw has significantly fewer innings and starts than all of these pitchers through age 23, but he lands dead center in terms of ERA+. Pitchers don’t come up as young as they used to.