Andre Ethier Decision Looming For Dodgers

By Grant Brisbee - Editor

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Feb 16, 2012 - It's a weird situation, being one half of a long-standing duo, especially when the other half gets a huge long-term deal. It's obviously just business, but it must be hard for a player not to think that it means the team values the other player more. Andre Ethier is a free agent after this season. He's probably not sitting in a corner, pouting with his arms crossed. But if Sullivan got a big ol' raise and I didn't, that's exactly what I'd do, so Ethier's probably a bigger man than I.

It made sense for the Dodgers to target Kemp first, of course. It's not like Ethier is the Garfunkel or Oates of the duo, but it isn't a Lennon/McCartney thing, either, where you can have honest debates about who's better. It's closer to Wilco/Son Volt, but now we're really down the music rabbit-hole. Point is that Ethier has been good for the Dodgers, but Kemp has been a star. The Dodgers locked Kemp up; they'll need to decide what to do with Ethier soon.

Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times thinks that the Dodgers need to lock Either up.

Ethier is coming off the worst season of his career (11 homers, 62 RBIs, a .421 slugging percentage). He is coming off knee surgery.

He is unlikely to ever be cheaper to sign to a multiyear contract than he is right now.

Fair points, but the Dodgers' blog army isn't so sure. It's a tough, tough line to straddle for a fan, trying to remain practical and impartial while acknowledging that the sentimental part wants Ethier around forever. Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness sets the spectrum of desirable-to-freaky:

What interests me more right now is trying to figure out just how much a big 2012 could enhance Ethier’s value on the market, because there’s a big difference between a deal for, say, 3/$36m (which I’d certainly love to do) and something more like 5/$85m (which I’d run away screaming from).

And Chad Moriyama prefers logic over sentimentality:

So while I’ve always liked Ethier, as he felt a part of the young core, the timing is all wrong for me. Locking up a corner outfielder with a four year declining trend in wOBA, mediocre defense (despite the joke of aGold Glove), the inability to hit lefties, and questionable athleticism just isn’t a risk I’d feel comfortable with.

Some of the names that come up in the above articles: Brad Hawpe, Jason Bay. Those will give you chills as a Dodgers fan. You can keep going, too. Bobby Higginson. Rusty Greer. Danny Tartabull. There isn't a shortage of outfielders in baseball history who roared through their 20s before hitting a brick wall in their 30s. A good comparison for Ethier -- except for one minor detail -- would be Roger Maris.

But there are other comps, too. Ryan Klesko did just fine in the first half of his 30s, and he seems like a player with whom it makes sense to compare Ethier. J.D. Drew had some of his best years after turning 30, as did Brian Giles and Ken Singleton. Turning 30 doesn't mean that Ethier is going to end up in some Logan's Run nightmare automatically. Every player is different.

What the Dodgers have, then, is an outfielder who will turn 30 in April, who is coming off his worst season in four years, possibly because of a knee injury. They have to decide if the injury was a one-off thing, or if there's a family of raccoons living in there now, and this is the Ethier they can expect, only less so, over the next five years.

There's no right answer. If the Dodgers lock him up now, there's the risk that his knee will be a chronic thing. If they don't extend him before the season, there's the chance that he'll return to the Ethier of old, and either A) get too expensive for the Dodgers' taste, or B) force the new owners to give him a ridiculous contract just south of Jayson Werth.

The Dodgers already know that they'll have Matt Kemp around for the next decade. The Officer Baker to his Ponch, though? No idea. I'm glad it's not me who has to make that decision.

Read More: Matt Kemp (CF - LAD), Andre Ethier (RF - LAD), Los Angeles Dodgers

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