Rehabbing Starters Could Make Big Differences

By Marc Normandin - Contributor

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Feb 16, 2012 - All of the prognosticating, all of the simulations, and all of the off-season debates about which teams are best or better keep fans and writers going when there's no real baseball to discuss, but all it takes is an injury or two to render much of that meaningless. Ask the Cardinals, who last March announced that ace Adam Wainwright was going to miss the entire 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery. In the end, that didn't keep them from winning the World Series, but not everyone else was so lucky.

Many teams that didn't match expectations last year had to deal with the same injury issues to pitchers, but many of those hurlers are ready to go in 2012. Well, maybe. Injuries are tricky, you know.

Adam Wainwright: The aforementioned Wainwright didn't cost his team last year by undergoing surgery, but with Albert Pujols signing with the Angels, the Cardinals need his arm to keep pace in the NL Central this year. Wainwright averaged 199 innings as a starter from 2007 through 2010, and finished third and second respectively in the 2009 and 2010 Cy Young votes. He's always had control, but in 2009, he started to miss more bats, bumping his strikeout-to-walk ratio well over three. Wainwright induces tons of grounders, too, making him the ideal kind of pitcher.

Getting him back is a huge deal for the Cardinals if the surgery did the trick. Wainwright ranks 18th in pitcher Wins Above Replacement over the last three years, despite missing an entire season in that stretch. In other words, it took three years of Cole Hamels to be as good as two years of Adam Wainwright.

Josh Johnson: The 28-year-old Johnson has already had a career's worth of arm injuries, between elbow trouble that eventually resulted in Tommy John, and on-and-off shoulder woes that cost him most of 2011. The Marlins have loaded up this winter, signing Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Heath Bell to combine with young talent like Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton ... but they'll still Johnson healthy to make a run at the division.

Over his last three seasons, Johnson's ERA+ is 158, thanks to a 3.4 K/BB, low homer rates, and a persistently low hit rate. He made just 28 starts in 2010, though, and was finished in 2011 after just nine appearances. The Marlins have him under contract for two more years, but he's no longer cheap at $13.75 million per. Their best chance at October baseball lies with Johnson's shoulder; if it holds up, they have a legitimate chance at having their off-season spending spree pay off.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz threw just 82 innings for the Red Sox last year, before a mysterious back injury landed him on the disabled list. What was thought to be a muscle strain turned out to be a stress fracture in his spine. Once it was correctly identified, Buchholz had it treated and rehabilitated properly, but not before the Red Sox blew their season.

Despite the back injury, Buchholz was in the midst of another quality campaign. Since 2009, he owns a 3.10 ERA and 143 ERA+, and while he strikes out a below-average number of hitters, his evolving slider (now a cutter), mid-90s fastball and his excellent change-up have helped him induce grounders and remain hard to hit. With the Red Sox relying on Daniel Bard and the Rotationettes for the back-end of the rotation, a healthy season from Buchholz could tip the AL East scales in Boston's favor.

Tommy Hanson: A rotator-cuff strain interrupted Tommy Hanson's 2011 in June, then ended his season in August. He missed 62 games while on the disabled list, and, given the Braves were eliminated from contention on the last day of the season, his absence can be singled out as the reason -- just like with Buchholz in Boston.

Hanson picked the wrong time to get hurt, too, as the 24-year-old was in the middle of his greatest year yet. Hanson was striking out almost 10 batters per nine, a rate just four others matched or exceeded in 2012 (minimum 130 innings pitched). The Braves are loaded with pitching prospects, but while some of them might be as good as Hanson in the future, they aren't now. For this same reason, they will need Hanson's shoulder healthy in 2012, especially with the Marlins lurking.

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Not every starter coming back from injury is potentially playoff-bound, but a healthy year from them could mean a lot to their respective teams:

• Johan Santana is recovering from surgery on his throwing shoulder to repair an anterior capsule tear. He missed part of 2009 due to elbow surgery to remove bone chips, the end of 2010 due to that shoulder, and all of 2011 from it as well. The Mets owe him $24 million in 2012 and $25.5M in 2013, so at this point, anything from him is a positive.
• Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden combined for just 101 innings in 2011, thanks to elbow surgery for the former and a shoulder procedure for the latter. With Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill both traded this winter, the Athletics will need to get as much as they can out of these two young arms. Anderson, especially, as the now 24-year-old has shown loads of promise in the little time he's been healthy.
• Jake Peavy is owed $17 million this year, and while the White Sox can buy out his $22M option for 2013 for $4M, they have received just 238 frames and a 4.49 ERA from Peavy since acquiring him in mid-2010. Their total investment in the righty will end up being around $44M, so, like with Santana, anything that resembles production would be a welcome change of pace.
• If Erik Bedard isn't healthy then the Pirates can't trade him in July.

Read More: Erik Bedard (P - PIT), Dallas Braden (P - OAK), Jake Peavy (P - CWS), Johan Santana (P - NYM), Adam Wainwright (P - STL), Clay Buchholz (P - BOS), Brett Anderson (P - OAK), Tommy Hanson (P - ATL), Oakland Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates

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