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Cardinals Loaded With Cardinal Killers

Feb 15, 2012 - Via the Cardinals blog Fungoes, I found a discussion of hitters who, over the years, have hurt the Cardinals the most. Now, generally these lists are a combination of the expected great hitters and the unexpected flukes; in other words, trivia. However, sometimes teams pay, umm, a little too much attention to such trivia. Not to point any fingers but ...

Oddly enough, three of the biggest Cardinal killers now play for them. Lance Berkman (.313 .415 .601) and Matt Holliday (.394 .475 .750) both have better-than-career marks against their current team. And although he doesn't have the regular-season bona fides (.258/.344/.463), Carlos Beltran has ripped the Cardinals in the playoffs (63 PAs) to the damage of .357/.476/.815.

But maybe it's not so strange, after all. It's possible that John Mozeliak and the front office have fallen prey to a bit of confirmation bias. That is, they (like all of us) tend to privilege their own experiences. So when the Cardinals have witnessed the likes of Big Puma, Big Country and Big-Game Beltran raking the Cardinal pitching staff, those players' performances are elevated in the their memories. Not that they're not accomplished players, of course. But even in the case of Rafael Furcal, it's possible that the Cardinals have an undue appreciation of his gifts based on how much better he performed in his career against them: .344/.388/.444 compared with a career line of .282/.348/.408.

I really doubt if Mozeliak would consciously acquire players because they'd done well against the Cardinals. However, it would be difficult to remove that sort of thing from one's subconscious. As much as some baseball men might try to strip the subjective feelings from the equation, they're always going to be lurking somewhere in the background, doing their dirty work. But it's not like Berkman and Holliday haven't been really good since joining the Cardinals. And I expect Beltrán to be really good, too.

There must be many, many examples of this over the years, though.

In March of 1972 the Red Sox traded Sparky Lyle to the Yankees for Danny Cater, who'd batted .347 in 54 road games at Fenway Park. Of course that deal was a spectacular success for the Yankees and a spectacular disaster for the Red Sox.

But my favorite example is Rich McKinney. Playing third base for the White Sox in 1971, McKinney batted .367 in eight games against the Yankees. After the season, the White Sox traded McKinney to the Yankees for Stan Bahnsen.

In 1972, McKinney batted .215 and fielded .917 in 37 games with New York. The Yankees traded him to the A's, and McKinney's career faded quite quickly. Meanwhile, Bahnsen won 51 games in the next three seasons. The Yankees finished two games out of first place in 1974, and you could argue that trading Bahnsen for McKinney cost the Yankees a division title.

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio


Comments

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Don't Berkman, Holliday, and Beltran "kill" about every team they hit against?

All three are excellent players.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Feb 15, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

Well, not exactly

There always are teams a player seems to do better against for whatever reason — some of it may be park effects when playing that team in its home park, some of it may be the type of pitchers that team tends to acquire, and a lot of it likely is random chance even in larger sample sizes. But these variations do exist, and they can have an effect on how the player is perceived (particularly by the folks who pay a lot of attention to the team in question, whether it’s the fans or the GM).

Take Berkman — he may be “good against everybody,” but he crushes Cincinnati (27% better OPS than his career average in 706 Plate Appearances) and sucks against the Cubs (24% worse than his career OPS in 725 PA). If he’s a killer of anything, he’s a killer of Reds.

Likewise Beltran beats up the Nationals but has had poor showings against the Phillies; as noted in the article, he’s anything but a Cardinal-killer in the regular season (he has hit them even worse than the Phillies; on the other hand, he really destroys the Cubs, but both of those are very small samples). Holliday is the real Cardinal Killer in the bunch (61% above his career average) but in not enough PAs to be meaningful. Looking at just the teams he has more than 400 PA against, he’s a Dodger-killer (and the Giants are his kryptonite)

Again, nobody is consistently good against everybody; as far as I know, there are no players in the league born in Lake Wobegon. So while we’d expect these things to even out to looking like little more than park effects over time, the amount of time (and PAs, when split up in an unbalanced way amongst all the other teams) is more than most careers can provide. Thus, in the moment, we see transient ripples in the data we tend to magnify into team-killing tsunami in our minds.

by J0SER on Feb 15, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Weren't all three in the MLB top 20 for OPS in 2011?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Feb 15, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Giants fans always suspected that Al Rosen did this.

Mark Portugal is the name brought up most often as an example.

by Grant Brisbee on Feb 15, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

Beltran, Berkman and Furcal

These three seem more likely to indicate a strategy of valuing injury-risky but productive veterans than players who have done well against the Cardinals in the past.

by HitTheCutoff on Feb 15, 2012 12:27 PM EST reply actions  

Berkman's injury history

apart from the infamous flag football incident of 2005 and a spring training injury in 2010, Berkman’s been pretty lucky with injuries.

by AstroB on Feb 15, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

also switch hitters

Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Feb 15, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I notice

the Pirates didn’t end up with Pujols.

Theory fail.

by bucdaddy on Feb 15, 2012 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Big Country

will always be Bryant Reeves.

by Fronk Baumer on Feb 15, 2012 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

Recent example

This is exactly how the Yankees ended up with A.J. Burnett and that ridiculously stupid contract.

by ribender12 on Feb 15, 2012 10:26 PM EST reply actions  

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