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The Oakland Athletics' Crowded Outfield

The signing of Yoenis Cespedes means at least one talented A's youngster is going to end up on a bus to Triple-A in 2012.

Feb 14, 2012 - The Athletics had more outfielders than they knew what to do with before they made Yoenis Cespedes their highest-paid player on Monday. Given that distinction -- plus the fact Cespedes has far more upside than anyone else in Oakland's lineup -- it's obvious he's going to be entrenched in one of the outfield slots. But what about the other half-dozen outfielders and DH/first base types on the roster, who are now even more unsure of their role on the 2012 Athletics?

Prior to the Cespedes acquisition, Oakland's outfield looked to be Seth Smith (acquired from the Rockies for Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso) in left field, Coco Crisp (re-signed for two years, $13 million with a 2014 option) once again manning center, and Josh Reddick (part of the return package from the Red Sox in exchange for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney) setting up in right. It wasn't perfect, but it was an outfield.

The A's also signed Jonny Gomes at the end of January, picked up Collin Cowgill in the Trevor Cahill swap, and already had Michael Taylor and Jermaine Mitchell in tow. Acquiring every outfielder they could get their hands on should tell you how the organization feels about Taylor and Mitchell, but the pair is taking up roster space somewhere regardless.

Who gets bumped now that Cespedes is aboard? Crisp is the only real center fielder on the team, and ranks below Cespedes in terms of contract value. That leaves a fight for the remaining corner outfield spot.

Seth Smith is a career .275/.348/.485 hitter, but that line comes with multiple caveats. For one, Smith can't hit lefties at all: nearly all of his production over the years has come against righties, a group he's hit .290/.364/.518 against in 1,210 plate appearances. Flailing against lefties is preferable to the other way around, given there are far more innings thrown by right-handed hurlers, but Smith has never shown much of a bat outside of Coors Field, either. He's a career .296/.366/.559 hitter at Coors, and has hit just .257/.332/.418 on the road. His 2012 home line, if anything, will be worse thanks to the pitching-friendly environment of Oakland.

Josh Reddick is less proven than Smith, but given what we are expecting out of the latter, that's not a bad thing. Reddick hit .280/.327/.457 for the Red Sox in 2011, good for a 109 OPS+ and .286 True Average that bested the right field average. His glove is also productive, as he has a great arm for right field, and enough range that he can fake it out in center if need be. His bat was inconsistent, with Reddick hitting much better early on, but he also played through September with a wrist injury that required off-season surgery, and has a track record of success in the minors.

He doesn't have the walk rates that you've come to expect from the Athletics, but he's not impatient, taking 3.83 pitches per plate appearance in 2012. He fouls a lot of pitches off, and tends to work the count until he gets a pitch he thinks he can hit. Sometimes, though, he thinks he can hit everything, and that's when he gets off track. He might end up needing some days off against lefties, too, but he's been fine against them to this point in his career, whereas we already know where Smith stands with them.

Reddick has upside, and while his floor is also lower than the more-established Smith, that upside makes him the smarter play out of the two. Throw in that he's the superior defensive player, and he's more likely to contribute on those days where his bat doesn't have it.

Those two aren't the only ones vying for playing time, though. Cowgill was in line to try to earn a big-league job after a .354/.430/.554 season with the Diamondbacks's Triple-A affiliate. As a career .299/.383/.490 minor league hitter heading into his age-26 season, Cowgill, like Reddick, is going to have to be given a shot to succeed or fail soon. Unlike Smith, but like Reddick, Cowgill has the defensive chops to make playing him while he figures things out offensively worthwhile, and could also stick in center momentarily should Crisp go down with an injury.

The A's essentially have two Reddicks sitting around (or two Cowgills, depending on your preferences): two well-regarded lottery tickets who could turn out to be pretty useful pieces for a team willing and able to give them the playing time. We're not quite sure if the A's are either of those things, though.

This is without getting into where Gomes' bat is going make its appearances, how much the rent in Taylor and Mitchell's Sacramento apartment is going to cost, or when Chris Carter will get a chance to show whether he is or is not capable of hitting 30-plus homers in the majors. Carter isn't an outfielder in anything but name, but his path to playing time as a DH isn't clear either, thanks to the presence of Gomes, Brandon Allen, and Kila Ka'aihue.

The A's have options, and that's not a bad thing. They've got insurance policies taken out on their insurance policies when it comes to outfielders and first base/DH types. There are only so many plate appearances and starts to go around, though. Oakland's roster situation just doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now, since at least one of Reddick or Cowgill is going to be the odd man out on a team that's trying to figure out that pair's future.

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Marc Normandin

Contributor

I got my start writing about baseball for an audience with Beyond the Box Score back in 2005, and have spent the subsequent years writing about the game for Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Sports... Read full bio


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I’m not entirely sure why Reddick or Cowgill is automatically the odd man out. With your hypothesis that Cespedes starts the season in an outfield corner (let’s call it RF), we’ve got a few sure things: Crisp, Cespedes, and Smith (as the LF or DH). Smith could definitely use a right-handed hitting caddy, but I’m not sure why that should be Gomes over someone like Chris Carter or Collin Cowgill.

The 13 guys on the roster could easily be Barton (1B), Weeks (2B), Pennington (SS), Sizemore (3B), Suzuki ©, Crisp (CF), Cespedes (RF), Reddick (LF), Smith (DH1), Cowgill (4OF / DH2), Carter (DH2 / 1B / 5OF), Recker (2C), Sogard or Rosales (IF). If the team needs both Sogard and Rosales on the roster, the team can drop Carter (most likely), Barton, or Cowgill to Triple-A.

Gomes, not Reddick or Cowgill, seems to me like the guy most easily replaceable, as he has limited upside, is only under contract for a single year, and even at his best won’t produce staggering offensive value (and no defensive value). Perhaps the Cespedes signing is really $7.5 million this year, when you factor in the sunk cost of Gomes’s $1MM contract, but I would think only a crazy person would give Jonny Gomes 200-300 ML PA instead of Chris Carter or Josh Reddick or Collin Cowgill…especially on a not-likely-to-contend team. Both Carter and Cowgill would probably (nearly) replace his platoon advantage.

Also, I think Brandon Allen is SOL, unless the A’s decide to cut bait on Barton. And beyond that, all it takes is one injury to clear things up pretty easily.

by Bryan Grosnick on Feb 14, 2012 11:40 AM EST reply actions  

For a team in the A's position, though

A team clearly loading up for when they think they can have a new park in a new town, it should be Cowgill/Reddick getting those PA, not Smith. I’m not super concerned about where Gomes plays, given it’s Gomes, but he’s on the roster, so ABs will come his way somehow.

by Marc Normandin on Feb 14, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Not As Jammed As It Appears

Marc, agreed, there is quantity here, but not much quality. I think you’re setting the expectations way too high for Reddick. Let’s look at his career AAA slash line:

.243/.300/.449 in 791 plate appearances, a decent sample size.

That’s not much of a hitter for a corner outfielder, and the numbers showed a regression from his relatively unimpressive career AA line: 257/.332/..492.

He just turned 25, so I’m not sure he has much upside. Injuries aside, his numbers tumbled as the league got to know him:

First 70 PA (first half stats): .393/.429/.672

That’s Al Simmons reincarnated. But, look at his next 208 PA (second half):

.244/.293/.389

That’s Richard Simmons. I think the Red Sox wisely sold while Reddick was at the height of his value, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he never hits as well as he did last season with the Red Sox. He looks like a utility outfielder.

I also don’t know that Cespedes is “entrenched.” If he doesn’t show a significant improvement over his Dominican League performance, he won’t be starting for very long.

Which is to say, the As better hold on to all this depth until things shake out, because they may very well find that there isn’t much “deep” in their depth.

by RichL on Feb 14, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Really limited duty prior to 2011

And Reddick had a big shift in his plate approach in the 2011 season, both in the majors and in the minors. He couldn’t lay off of anything basically his entire minor-league career until 2011, and that was the last piece of the puzzle for a guy who actually has a good deal of pop.

I think he’s got more potential than he gets credit for, basically. Thought so when he was in Boston, too. At least there I understand moving him aside, with Kalish waiting in the wings.

by Marc Normandin on Feb 14, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Same old

I have to agree with RIchL. The A’s seem to have this “problem” every year — every year since they were a good team, at least. Five Ryan Sweeneys is not an overcrowded outfield. And not all of these guys are going to pan out as decent major leaguers.

Crisp, if healthy, is at least a competent major leaguer although heading toward the end of his career.

Yoenis deserves every chance to start, and at least Smith has had ML success even if it is inflated from Coors. The rest should be given a chance to develop fully in Sacramento.

Sadly, I’m sure they’ll have plenty of chances to prove themselves in Oakland on what should be a very light-hitting 2012 A’s lineup. Also they should have plenty of chances if the team’s DL is anything like it’s been over the last five years or so.

Now, this is a good story and discussion, but I guess I’m just leery of the inevitable annual offseason “Rosterbation” threads that say how deep the team is and how the A’s are projected to win 88 games if so-and-so switches to SS, starts switch-hitting and is traded for Justin Upton in May.

by rBorba on Feb 14, 2012 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Oh, I agree

I don’t think the A’s are going to win a whole lot more by plugging in Reddick or Cowgill. But those seems like the guys they should be playing in a season where they are probably taking a step back and looking towards their future.

by Marc Normandin on Feb 14, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

A Word About Shifts

Well, we’ve seen hitters change their approaches at the plate and achieve strong short-term results, but the fact is Reddick’s hitting dramatically declined in those final 200 MLB PAs. We don’t know if that was the injury, or just a league of pitchers adjusting to him. If it’s the latter, he’s a utility player with average pop and below average OBP for a corner outfielder.

by RichL on Feb 14, 2012 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

I hope Reddick...

gets a shot. He’s a good little player. I’ve seen him play CF in AAA quite a few times, and think he could be average there as an everyday player, and makes a great 4th OF because he can play all 3 spots.

by MikeD76 on Feb 14, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

I like him a lot

He has definite holes in his game, but I think the positives far outweigh them, and that he can be a pretty useful outfielder in the bigs. Just maybe not a guy Boston would use given their usual expectations from prospects/minor leaguers.

by Marc Normandin on Feb 15, 2012 7:30 AM EST up reply actions  

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