Feb 13, 2012 - Baseball Reference is clearly the greatest website on the Internet. But beware of the rabbit holes. Beware of the pages that occupy you for longer than you expect. One second you're looking at Ted Williams' stats, and the next you're sucked into the page, having a light-cycle race to the death around his stats from the 1957 season. You pop out a few hours later, dizzy and bleeding from the nose. Beware.
The page that always gets me is the 2003 Tigers. So bad. Amazingly bad. They were like a participant in the World Baseball Classic from a country that you didn't think played baseball. "Luxembourg? Well, okay." Astoundingly bad. Once-in-a-generation bad. Here's what Baseball Prospectus wrote about them in their 2004 annual:
Aiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenonononnononononoohohohonnononononononoaiieearrccggkkkk
Well, they could have. That could have been the whole chapter. Instead what they really wrote was …
They were the worst major-league baseball team without an excuse in 100 years.
The 1962 Mets were an expansion team. That's a pretty good excuse. The Tigers had several years to acquire players as they saw fit. They assembled the 2003 Tigers. That was a team without an excuse.
But the '03 Tigers being so bad is only part of the reason their team page on Baseball Reference is fascinating. The other half of the story is just as important: 36 months after losing their 119th game of the season, the Tigers were in the World Series. You know how the story of the '03 Tigers ends. That makes the prologue -- a team that might be the worst we'll see this century -- that much more fascinating. It's like re-watching Midnight Express, knowing that the unbearable misery just sets up a better payoff. Also, I haven't seen the end of Midnight Express, but I'm assuming he goes home to a warm reception and some cake. Don't ruin it for me.
It's not like the team was bad because they were rushing all sorts of talented prospects who would eventually be good. From that same 2004 Baseball Prospectus:
The Tigers' young talent wasn't just bad; it was, in many cases below replacement level. This not only hurt the Tigers on the field in 2003, it hurts them into the future, because their young players were so bad that few of them ever project to reach mediocrity.
It was a barren, scorched earth. An optimistic projection for a turnaround would have been at least five years down the road, if it happened at all. And yet in 2006, the Tigers won the AL pennant.
The 2003 Tigers, then, are one of baseball's greatest motivational posters. You can look at every team in the majors -- no matter how bad -- and know that it's possible for them to be interesting in two years, and in the World Series in three. Any team. The clear ace of the 2003 Tigers, Nate Cornejo, had a 4.67 ERA, striking out 46 of the 842 batters he faced. Their former top prospect, Eric Munson, was one of the worst defensive third basemen the game has ever seen over a full season. Chris Mears led the team with five saves. They didn't have a particularly good farm system.
They made the World Series within the next three seasons.
The Houston Astros, as currently constructed, are supposed to be miserable. The projections are beyond grim -- they've moved into performance-art territory. I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that not a single of the players projected to start for them in 2012 will be starting for any team in 2014. The farm system isn't great.
If the 2003 Tigers could turn it around in three seasons, though …
The Baltimore Orioles entered last season excited about their young pitching, which melted into a puddle of pitching goo by the end of the year. They have some interesting young pieces, but they're still the Orioles. They play in the AL East. It's probably not going to happen for them ever again, if you're feeling dark and cynical.
If the 2003 Tigers could turn it around in three seasons, though …
As pitchers and catchers report to camp, it's not wrong to feel hopelessly optimistic about your favorite team, which just might be an awful collection of current players. And eventually, your spirit will be broken, and you'll spend your August following exhibition football, or something equally as odious.
But if the 2003 Tigers could turn it around with a mix of prospects, savvy trades, free-agent acquisitions, and the like, any team can. The 2003 Detroit Tigers lost for your sins. It was the greatest gift they could have given baseball fans looking for a reason for optimism. A historically wretched team can contend a lot sooner than you think.
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Comments
More Proof BR is the best website in the world:
I found out that their leader in OPS in 2003 was Steve Avery. Steve Avery!!!
by another simpsons avatar on Feb 13, 2012 9:14 AM EST reply actions
I’m more amazed by the fact that Steve Avery was still in the Majors in 2003.
DON'T GO TO SLEEP EARLY OR JEFF FRANCOEUR WILL HAUNT YOUR DREAMS AND LOWER YOUR OBP.
by BullManUGA on Feb 13, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They were 19-18 in one-run games.
Benevolent despot, Hustle Belt — SBN's MAC blog
by Matt Sussman on Feb 13, 2012 9:59 AM EST reply actions
hahahaha
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 13, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Ahahaha.
"One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever."
- Ecclesiastes 1:4
by Kofiabiney on Feb 13, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Every time this wound scabs over
somebody gotta come along an’ pick at it. Then I have to think about the name Randy “Aiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenonononnononononoohohohonnononononononoaiieearrccggkkkk” Smith. Randy Smith was lucky that he could crouch, almost unnoticed, in the shadow of Matt Millen’s national headline grabbing epitome of General Manager suckitude.
by grath on Feb 13, 2012 10:11 AM EST reply actions
oh god Randy smith and matt millen in the same area
Why didn’t I think about that? I guess there was the Pistons and Red Wings, if that’s your thing.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 13, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
But how did the Tigers improve
1) The went from the bottom 1/4 of payroll to the middle of the pack by adding a well-spent $30,000,000.
2) In 2004, the San Diego Padres made one of the last truly awful draft picks when they selected Matt Bush. The first round picks alternated by year back then, but San Diego somehow felt bad, that they didn’t deserve to pick first overall and punted on the Scott Boras client, leaving Justin Verlander. Sure, that helps, but if you recall the Seattle Mariners in 1993, they had the first overall pick and they didn’t take Darren Dreifort – they went for A-Rod. If Seattle went for Dreifort and A-Rod went to the Dodgers, then they at least win the NL West. And what then? The World Series? They keep Piazza? O’Malley never sells the team? There is no mention of Frank McCourt? And let’s not forget that in the Moneyball draft of 2002, Curtis Granderson was a Tigers 3rd round pick.
3) They scrapped almost the whole team and started over. Verlander and Granderson came up. Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge are the only surviving position players. They traded for Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco, they signed Pudge Rodriguez, Kenny Rodgers, Todd Jones, Marcus Thames, and Magglio Ordonez. And Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson got better (k/bb of 1.86 and 1.43 respectively to 3.16 and 2.04). They had similar uniforms, and played in the same ballpark, and had the same logo, but those are two very different Detroit Tigers teams.
by StolenMonkey86 on Feb 13, 2012 11:05 AM EST reply actions
Yep.
It would have been another article to detail exactly how it happened, but …
…that’s the overall point. Because it will need to be a completely different Astros team if they’re going to make noise in 2015.
Also, don’t forget Carlos Guillen to the Marliners for 45 at-bats of Ramon Santiago, who went back to the Tigers anyway after two seasons.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 13, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
The Marliners?
Did Nintendo and Jeffrey Loria have a lovechild? lol
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
by Andrew GM on Feb 13, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
It's also worth mentioning
That Detroit’s best player in 2003, Dmitri Young, had nothing to do with their resurgence in 2006. Even though 2.7 WAR is hardly amazing for a 1B (you still have to go back to 1999 to find a Dodger 1B that was that valuable), he had value, but they didn’t trade him. Rather he developed off-the-field problems and couldn’t stay on the field in 2006, and the Tigers released him at the end of the season.
by StolenMonkey86 on Feb 13, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
you mentioned the Astros and Orioles
but not the Pirates. Do you have anything to say about the Pirates?
(That should be like the equivalent of a Mike Maroth hanging curve over the middle of the plate.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 13, 2012 11:19 AM EST reply actions
I try to spread the picking-on around.
But, yeah, the Pirates too. The Astros and Orioles have a new regime already, so they were a bit more analogous.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 13, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I was expecting something more along the lines of
“If the 2003 Tigers could turn it around in three seasons, though …
“Nah. Not the Pirates. Sorry.”
The Pirates aren’t the greatest comp this year, anyway, because of that weird thing where they were in first place that one time last year.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 13, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
They might not be good ...
… but they aren’t completely devoid of talent. The Pirates are usually 20/30 games better than the 2003 Tigers. Think about thaaaaaaat.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 13, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH IT.
Don’t we get enough of that without asking for it?
by bucdaddy on Feb 13, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
And incredibly, the Tigers won five of their last six to avoid being even worse than 43-119
by seattlebruin on Feb 13, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions
Well to be fair, it was an unlucky 43-119
Their pythag record was 49-113!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Feb 13, 2012 1:33 PM EST reply actions
Good stuff
I remember Trammel’s interview after their first win (~10th game) saying how good it was to get that first win and now they can relax and play good ball, expect a turnaround, etc…then promptly losing their next ~10 in a row. Classic.
"I have a dream that our twelve pitchers will one day play in a city where they will not be judged solely by statistics, but on the quality and consistency of their pitches." - MLK, Jr.
by someguy1 on Feb 13, 2012 1:43 PM EST reply actions
On Mariners sites I've been promoting the Tigers 2003-2006 turnaround
Since 2006. And I’m still doing it, with no real end in sight, and it’s now been two full cycles like that… (and more going back before 2006, before we even had this particular example that it was possible).
I mean, it is possible, right? (Oh, who am I kidding — the expansion teams in Las Vegas and Monterrey Mexico are going to play in the World Series before the Mariners ever do.)
by J0SER on Feb 13, 2012 1:44 PM EST reply actions
just for reference:
2010 Mariners: .236/298/329/637 R:513, HR:101 H:1274
2003 Tigers: .240/300/375/675 R:591, HR:153 H: 1312
Believe Big!
by Robert Praetor on Feb 14, 2012 12:07 AM EST reply actions
Memories...
I had the honor of writing the Tigers chapter in BP 2004. Few assignments have been more enjoyable. Garden-variety suckitude is one thing – believe me, I know a thing or two about sucky teams – but the 2003 Detroit Tigers were an absolute Perfect Storm of awfulness.
119 losses! Do you know how crazy that is? The gap between the 2003 Tigers and a 100-loss team is the same as the gap between a 100-loss team and .500. Needless to say, it was great fun to write.
Thanks for making me grab the book off my shelf and reliving that chapter once again. Good times. Unless you’re a Tigers fan.
by Rany Jazayerli on Feb 14, 2012 12:38 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I love this line:
"There is no sports event like Opening Day of baseball, the sense of beating back the forces of darkness and the National Football League."
—George Vecsey
by extavernmouse on Feb 14, 2012 2:53 AM EST reply actions
I was at Game #162 in 2003
The Tigers beat the Twins — 8-3 or 8-5, I think — to escape tying the record, and the place went absolutely berzerk. People were holding up signs that said things like, “We still love you Tigers”. It was truly a fantastic experience, and it made 2006 all that much sweeter.
by frisbeepilot on Feb 14, 2012 7:40 AM EST reply actions
Is the converse also true?
Could I be so lucky as to watch the Yankees implode in the space of a mere 3 years and lose 119 games?
There’s always hope!
by Craig from Az on Feb 14, 2012 5:03 PM EST reply actions
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