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Would A.J. Burnett Be Good For The Pirates?

The latest rumor has A.J. Burnett perhaps going to Pittsburgh for Garrett Jones. Which makes sense for the Yankees, who are looking for a lefty bat. But why would the Pirates want Burnett?

Feb 10, 2012 - At some point, the A.J. Burnett Situation will go from the sublime to the ridiculous, with a bunch of GMs in a diner pointing guns at each other and yelling to be cool.

What, what? The Yankees are trying to trade Burnett -- and presumably a stack of silver dollars that could stretch from the Earth to the Moon and back -- for Garrett Jones? I guess it's already ridiculous.

Look, the Yankees need a platoon partner for Andruw Jones. The once-future Hall of Famer does pretty well against left-handed pitchers, but you don't want him DHing for you every day. And if I had to choose between Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui -- all supposedly still in play for the Yankees -- I would probably look for other options, too.

But just this week the Yankees signed Russell Branyan to a minor-league contract.

Russ Branyan's got an 833 career OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Garrett Jones has an 838 career OPS against right-handed pitchers.

Granted, Jones can play more positions decently, and he's also six years younger than Branyan. One thing that would concern me, though: Jones has played in the majors in only three seasons, and his best season was his first. By a lot. Jones is a better, more durable player than Branyan, and probably a better hitter. But not by a lot.

Still, Jones would probably make the Yankees better than they are today, as would jettisoning Burnett and his Super Amazing Exploding Earned-Run Average. The question isn't, in the slightest, why the Yankees would make such a deal. Aside from the temporary embarrassment of the headlines -- You paid how much for what when you signed Burnett three years ago? -- this should be an easy call for Brian Cashman. Get rid of a player who won't help you and acquire a player who might, money be damned. Perfect example of a sunk cost. You're going to spend another $33 million on Burnett, regardless; might as well get something for your money.

Everyone seems to have been focusing on Burnett leaving the Yankees and Jones joining the Yankees, because Yankees. But that's not the interesting side of the equation. The interesting side of the equation is Pirates. Because why on earth would the Pittsburgh Pirates be interested in a pitcher like A.J. Burnett? Even if he's essentially free?

Because he would essentially be free. Because Garrett Jones has seen his best days, most likely, and almost certainly won't be a particularly useful player when (if) the Pirates are ready to really contend for a place in the postseason tournament (no, last year doesn't count). This spring might be the last time the Pirates can get much of value for Garrett Jones, and a pitcher who gives you 200 innings and strikes out twice as many as he walks does have some value.

Or might, anyway. Burnett's biggest problem in each of the last two seasons was home runs. He gave up 56 of them, fourth-most in the majors and all three guys ahead of him pitched more innings. Yankee Stadium is an excellent place for left-handed-hitting power hitters; Pittsburgh's PNC Park is unfriendly to lefty-hitting power hitters. It would be foolish to suggest that pitching half his games in Pittsburgh will automatically restore Burnett's once-formidable powers. But maybe Yankee Stadium is Burnett's red sun, and there's a yellow sun where the Monongahela and the Allegheny become the Ohio.

So what if Burnett pitches better as a Pirate? If he pitches better, he'll be both effective and cheap -- because the Yankees will be paying most of the freight -- and thus desirable to contending teams this summer, particularly considering that he's under contract through 2013. If he pitches better, and especially if he pitches well, the Pirates might then flip Burnett in July for a couple of prospects ... which is more than they could ever get for Garrett Jones.

Would I trade for A.J. Burnett, were I the Pittsburgh Pirates? That's impossible to answer without consulting my scouts and my doctors, and it's really early in the morning and I can't get any of those lazy bastards on the phone. But depending on how big a check the Yankees are willing to write, I sure would give it some serious thought.

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio


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2 additional things in the Pirates' favor

In addition to the different home stadium, the reduced level of competition in the NL Central vs. the AL East should also help Burnett’s home run numbers. With the departure of Fielder and Pujols, the most formidable sluggers who don’t play for the Reds in the division are either aging, oft-injured, and/or facing a suspension (Berkman, Beltran, Holliday, and Braun).

It also works out well in terms of replacements. Burnett would (hopefully) be replacing Kevin Correia, whereas the departure of Jones (he of 1.3 fWAR over the past two seasons) could allow for the interesting-prospect-if-you-squint Matt Hague to get some big league playing time (.310/.373/.460 in AAA last year with similar triple slash lines at every minor league level).

by Uli Kunkel's woodchipper on Feb 10, 2012 10:04 AM EST reply actions  

"Pittsburgh's PNC Park is unfriendly to lefty-hitting power hitters."

It is? You have some numbers that show it’s worse for LH than RH?

Because, since we’re talking about Garrett Jones:

Career, home: 769 PAs, 33 HR
Career, road: 804 PAs, 27 HR

Also this:

PNC Park dimensions:

Left Field Foul Pole: 325 feet
Left Field Power alley: 386 ft
Left-center field: 389 ft
Deep Left-center field: 410 ft
Center field: 399 ft
Right Field Power alley: 375 ft
Right Field Foul Pole: 320 feet

Backstop: 52 ft.

Foul territory: very small.

by bucdaddy on Feb 10, 2012 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

yankee stadium’s right field line is 6 feet shorter than PNC Park’s. and the RF fence at yankee stadium isn’t 21 feet high. look at this chart of Yankee Stadium and home runs hit there in 2011…..2.58 HRs per game and 209 HRs total. look at the dense amount of dots in RF
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_4462&type=ballpark

by rinsana11 on Feb 10, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I see your point.

But Yankee Stadium being an excellent (apparently) HR park for LH batters doesn’t make PNC a BAD one.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_4377&type=ballpark

I see a concentration of balls right down the LF line, but a fairly even dispersal around the rest of the park. And actually, the concentration in the LF corner makes sense when you consider there are, what, twice as many RH hitters as LH hitters?

by bucdaddy on Feb 10, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

If you want to trust Statcorner’s park factors, it rates PNC park a 99/73 (LHB/RHB) for home runs, whereas Yankee Stadium is 143/115. Now, the exact statement, ""Pittsburgh’s PNC Park is unfriendly to lefty-hitting power hitters." might not necessarily be true since PNC is about average, but there is a pretty significant decrease on both sides of the plate from Yankee Stadiu., So theoretically Burnett would give up less home runs in a much less homer friendly park in lesser division and league.

by Schide on Feb 10, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

But Burnett's problem hasn't been his home park

Look at his splits over the last two years. Burnett has been brutal on the road (5.97 ERA in 182.1 innings). So sure, he’ll probably get a bump from moving to the easier league, but his home park helped him the last few years.

by Tom Ruane on Feb 12, 2012 10:37 PM EST reply actions  

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