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The Hall Of Fame: An Immodest Proposal

Jeff Bagwell addresses the media during a press conference as the Houston Astros announced that Bagwell was replacing Sean Berry as hitting coach in Houston Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

In which your humble scribe devises a mechanism that should allow nearly every Hall of Fame voter, even most of the skeptics, to support Jeff Bagwell's candidacy in good conscience.

Jan 9, 2012 - By now, you know: Jeff Bagwell, one of the six or eight greatest first basemen who's ever played this game, failed to gain election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. You need to be named on 75 percent of the ballots; after being named on 42 percent of the ballots a year ago, this time around Bagwell reached 56 percent.

Well, at least Jayson Stark voted for Bagwell:

What we have here is a guy who has vehemently denied he used any illegal PED, and who didn't appear in the Mitchell report even though star witness Kirk Radomski worked for the Astros. What we also have here is a player whose Hall of Fame qualifications couldn't possibly be more clear-cut. How many first basemen are in the 400-homer, 200-steal club? Just one: Jeff Bagwell. How many first basemen have ever ripped off at least 12 straight seasons with an OPS-plus of 130 or better? Only two: Bagwell and Gehrig. Not to mention this fellow was a rookie of the year, an MVP, a Gold Glove winner and the Simba-esque leader on a team that went to the postseason six times. So why are so many people NOT voting for him again?

Two hundred and fifty-two people didn't vote for him, to be perfectly precise.

There are two reasons why so many people are not voting for Jeff Bagwell.

Some people simply don't understand how well Bagwell played. Stark says Bagwell's qualifications for the Hall "couldn't possibly be more clear-cut," but that's grandly hyperbolic. First basemen don't get elected to the Hall of Fame because they steal 200 bases. They don't get into the Hall of Fame because of their OPS+'s, either. A lot of Jayson Stark's best writing pals, the guys he hangs out with every year at the All-Star Game and World Series, would, if given a chance, beat the living bejeezus out of OPS+ with a pointy stick.

Jeff Bagwell hit 449 home runs, which is not a particularly impressive figure for a would-be Hall of Fame first baseman. Granted, Bagwell ranks ninth all-time among first baseman. The problem is that he also ranks beneath Fred McGriff (sixth) and Carlos Delgado (eighth) on that list. Oh, and sometime this spring he'll be passed by Albert Pujols.

Stark's right about Bagwell deserving to be in the Hall of Fame, of course. Based on his performance. But I'm absolutely sure there are at least a few voters who honestly (if foolishly) don't believe Bagwell's got the numbers.

Of course, we suspect most of Bagwell's non-supporters have another reason.

What we have here is a guy who has vehemently denied he used any illegal PED, and who didn't appear in the Mitchell report even though star witness Kirk Radomski worked for the Astros.

There it is. We have Jeff Bagwell's word that he never broke any rules, and there's certainly no paper trail. Ergo, there's no drugs-related rationale for leaving Bagwell off your Hall of Fame ballot.

Or so Jayson Stark would have it. Obviously, his argument hasn't exactly carried the day yet, and presumably won't anytime soon.

I think a lot of voters would like to vote for Jeff Bagwell. They really would. But they do get caught up on the steroids, and so they're waiting ... for what, exactly, it's hard to say. Maybe they're waiting until 2025, Bagwell's final year on the BBWAA's ballot; if there's no solid evidence of cheating by then, they'll vote for him. I really don't know.

That's a long ways away. Jeff Bagwell shouldn't have to wait that long for his fate, and the Hall of Fame really shouldn't have to deal with the massive logjam of candidates that's going to build up over the next decade as all these Steroids Era guys become eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Fortunately, I have a solution.

BBWAA voters are concerned about electing someone who might have cheated. Of course they've already elected players who have cheated, and most of us agree that trying to figure out who cheated and who didn't quickly becomes a fool's errand. But this is the real world. If I thought we could convince every voter that steroids aren't really a big deal, I might try. I think that's a fool's errand, too. So I'm trying to offer a way out of this mess that might actually get some deserving candidates elected.

I propose that the Hall of Fame create a mechanism whereby the BBWAA, after electing a player, may subsequently remove him through a recall election.

I know that's a radical notion, and I suppose it's incumbent upon me to explain what such a thing might look like...

- Beginning five years after the BBWAA has elected a player, he become subject to a potential recall election.

- The process is triggered at the BBWAA's annual Winter Meetings get-together. Any member may suggest a recall election; with the motion properly seconded, a vote is taken immediately.

- If there are 50 votes for a recall election, the next winter each Hall of Fame voter will be sent two ballots: the usual list of candidates for the Hall of Fame, and a special recall ballot. If a voter does not return a recall ballot, it counts as a no for the recall.

- A recall election "succeeds" if 50 percent of the voters return a ballot with a check mark next to Yes. (Votes for Pat Buchanan result in the voter's summary expulsion from the BBWAA.)

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio


Comments

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Getting booted from the Hall...

…so would they have a ceremony for kicking out the recalled players? Who would make the phone call to tell them they’re gone? How about Rod Blagojevich?

--
‎"Never let your sense of morals get in the way of doing what's right."
--Isaac Asimov
---

by TLBKlaus on Jan 9, 2012 4:00 PM EST reply actions  

Gray Davis!

He couldn’t be up to too much these days.

by Ryan Frazer on Jan 9, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

And would media be present at the disenshrinees home to record the event?

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on Jan 10, 2012 12:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, just between me and you...

The odds are HIGHLY against a player actually being recalled. This whole thing is about peace of mind for the voters.

by Rob Neyer on Jan 9, 2012 4:04 PM EST reply actions  

But aren't most of the voters who left Bagwell off their ballot fairly simple-minded?

Their room temperature IQ’s should already afford them peace of mind if ignorance truly is bliss.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Jan 9, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I like it

I wonder if they would remove Bill Conlin from the writer’s wing too

Tony LaRussa- resident genius

by putmeincoach on Jan 9, 2012 4:09 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think Conlin should be removed

I think he should get a huge exhibit at the entrance of the HOF that details how he was a decent writer who was popular with other writers and in big bold letters A CHILD MOLESTER that way everyone who visits the HOF will know to keep their children away from Bill Conlin.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Jan 9, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Conlin

Actually, I suspect the BBWAA could recall Conlin if they like. The Spink Award is administered by the BBWAA.

by Rob Neyer on Jan 9, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Recall Ballot

One slight issue I have with the recall ballot: If it takes 75% of voters to get elected, it should take 75% of voters to be removed. No reason why the two elections should have different criteria, especially for something as embarrassing as a recall. (Even taking into account your surety that it won’t happen, it seems better to set the bar equally high in both directions.)

A further suggestion to limit nuisance elections: any BBWAA member who nominates or seconds a player for recall who fails to reach the 50 vote mark may not nominate that player again, and no player who is subject to a recall election may be recalled for a period of 5 years following the election.

That’d help limit situations where a couple guys with a grudge try to kick out a player they had a beef with every year until they get what they want.

by dilbert719 on Jan 9, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

Disagree, Agree

I’m happy with the 50 percent threshold for recall. Otherwise the mechanism really doesn’t have any teeth, and won’t be taken seriously.

I think you’re right about nuisance elections. I didn’t work through that part in my head, but you probably need something to limit the times a player can be potentially recalled.

by Rob Neyer on Jan 9, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Minor tweak

I’d make the requirement for a recall a percentage, not an absolute numbers. The number of HOF-voting BBWAA writers goes up every year, so something like 5%-10% would seem reasonable.

And I think a mechanism to remove a player is a solid idea.

by GBSimons on Jan 9, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the recall idea is dumb

Someone is either a HOFer or they’re not. Vote for a guy or don’t.

I’m not in favor of anything that helps the BBWAA members ignore their own hypocrisy. If keeping out great players like Bagwell or Piazza or whoever is next on the list puts a little more pressure on these jerks to come up with a coherent, consistent and fair position on steroids and the players who may or may not have taken them, then I say it’s worth the pain.

I’ve been done with the Baseball Hall Of Fame since they made Gary Carter wear an Expos hat when he was inducted, so maybe I’m not the best person to ask.

by Gary From The East End on Jan 9, 2012 5:59 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think the idea is dumb per se

but I think, as Rob has already admitted in the comments, the likelihood of someone being recalled will be very low, and I think the Baseball Writers will see that. And so I’m not sure how much it will actually help Bagwell’s case.

by aronofsky40 on Jan 9, 2012 6:32 PM EST reply actions  

I don't see it working

It’s not a bad idea, but there’s no way it would work in practice. The only players who would get recalled would be steroid-users. Gaylord Perry won’t be recalled for throwing spitballs, no one will get recalled for using greenies and no one will be recalled for being elected by the Veterans Committee despite not being good.

Ow! My oblique!

by Cantankerous on Jan 9, 2012 6:48 PM EST reply actions  

Not a bad idea, Rob.

I especially like this part:

and so they’re waiting … for what, exactly, it’s hard to say. Maybe they’re waiting until 2025, Bagwell’s final year on the BBWAA’s ballot; if there’s no solid evidence of cheating by then, they’ll vote for him. I really don’t know.

They’re waiting because a) they can — if the ballot were 100 years long, you know some people would take 99 years to make up their minds, it’s just the way people are — and/or b) the BBWAA is in love with its own power and just enjoys dangling this over the heads of ex-players.

Hey, why not just punt every player to the Golden Age committee? You never know what new evidence might emerge in Year 99. Who cares if the honorees are dead by then? coughRonSantocough

BTW, how do we know Barry Larkin wasn’t juicing? Look at that sudden power surge at age 32. Where did THAT come from? Maybe they should have waited for wisdom on him a few years or decades or centuries longer.

by bucdaddy on Jan 9, 2012 8:04 PM EST reply actions  

Recall?

Yeah, no.

________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 9, 2012 9:22 PM EST reply actions  

Why the rush to elect Bagwell?

That is, why other than to use his enshrinement as a gateway for known cheats like McGwire and Palmeiro to sneak in, break the logjam, and remove the issue of steroids from public consciousness?

It seems only reasonable to let Bagwell’s candidacy marinate a few more years. There will be more than enough clean candidates in that time to keep HoF induction ceremonies as an important part of the MLB season.

"Elder White! Look at the talent on those Cubs!" Harry Caray, KMOX Radio, 4/22/62

"And you have to wonder – What's the matter with Broglio?" Harry, KMOX, 5/24/64

by ernaga on Jan 9, 2012 11:56 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe because Bagwell was a hall of fame baseball player

and hall of fame baseball players belong in the hall of fame?

Time to update this: 2009 Did Not Happen. Neither did 2010. Or 2011. Sports suck.

by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

But IF he used roids

and Rob has said in previous articles that even he would tend to believe that Bagwell did, then he isn’t a clear cut hall of famer at all. At most he’s a possible hall of famer. IMO.

by aronofsky40 on Jan 10, 2012 4:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait

could they use this to recall the Freddie Lindstrom’s and George Kelly’s of the world?

Time to update this: 2009 Did Not Happen. Neither did 2010. Or 2011. Sports suck.

by cjmulrain on Jan 10, 2012 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

I like it!

It’s a very creative idea that won’t ever come to fruition simply because its too “radical”. But I think it really is a great idea, and not just because it could help my boy Bagwell get to the HOF.

It would allow the BBWAA members to put their vote where their mouths are. If they are anti-cheating or anti-“bad person” as some say, then they would have to at least consider recalling the Ty Cobbs and the Gaylord Perrys. I’m not saying they deserve to be recalled, but given what some of these writers are using as excuses, it would shine a light on the hypocrisy of it all.

by HTown4Eva on Jan 10, 2012 12:42 AM EST reply actions  

I've been pondering this idea,

and I think it’s much simpler.

Let’s extend the waiting period from five years to 10, and then make it a one-and-done election, keeping the 75 percent standard. Ten years should be plenty enough time to wait for new revelations or information or “wisdom” or whatever to occur. One-and-done eliminates the need to compare each player with the other members of his class; in fact, if you really want to spark new interest in the Hall, I’d propose that instead of one big election every year, with a realistic chance for at most three or four guys to get in, no matter how many are qualified, why not hold an election once a month, up or down on one player at a time? This should not be hard in this day and age, it could be done by Twitter, with every Tweet made public.

That removes said deserving player from the competition created by loaded Hall classes and allows him to stand on his own merits. January 2013: Vote on Barry Bonds. February 2013: Vote on Mike Piazza. Etc. Imagine the buzz all year. You could have as many as 12 players a year elected. (This would necessitate eliminating many of the marginal players on the ballot, but the Hall does that already, deciding whether to put Omar Moreno on and keep Duane Kuiper off. This just cuts the list further. The Omar Morenos will not make the final ballot.)

This will also spare us sob stories about Jack Morris sitting by the phone for 15 years like some dweeb waiting for a prom date to call. Jack gets his shot (maybe) and closure. No Golden Age committee, 2nd/3rd/15th etc. chance, no dangling in limbo, it’s in or out and get on with your life.

Perhaps the 12 finalists could be determined in a vote of fans and broadcasters and ex-players, managers and executives, to get more people involved in the process and break the loathesome BBWAA monopoly. They can’t be the only people in the universe who know what a Hall of Famer looks like. The more people involved, the more voices join the argument, the more interest generated, the less the process gets dragged out until players on the ballot are forgotten or dead, the better for everyone, right?

by bucdaddy on Jan 10, 2012 2:23 AM EST reply actions  

What's the rush?

I think Bagwell belongs. I think he’ll get in. But what’s the rush?

A lot can happen in 15 years. A lot HAS happened in the last 15 years. An unprecedented assault on power hitting records occurred. Then, nearly every major player in that group was caught, admitted, or very legitimately suspected (and may be in current legal proceedings). Then, as scrutiny became more refined, that jump in productivity by individuals suddenly declined quite significantly.

We’ve learned a lot. I imagine many voters who did NOT vote for Bagwell are inclined to do so…and will — they just want to wait. You can learn a lot in 15 years. That’s why they have that extended time. To gain or develop perspective.

Unlike the knucklehead in the sidebar in this article (“Steroids/Morris”), many writers take seriously one of the not-very-many rules they have — Rule 5: “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, INTEGRITY, SPORTSMANSHIP, CHARACTER….”

Bagwell will get in — he’s polling far better than McGwire. He doesn’t seem to have that taint. Some just want to wait, and that’s eminently appropriate.

by Scarecrow13 on Jan 10, 2012 7:16 AM EST reply actions  

Nice post Scarecrow.

Totally right on. And I agree – if no new info comes out about Bagwell and roids, I think he will ultimately get in too, and deservedly so.

by aronofsky40 on Jan 10, 2012 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

What's the rush?

Well, for one thing, wouldn’t it be nice to see these guys go in the Hall while they’re still alive and while most people alive remember them? How many people would give a damn today if Bill Dahlen got voted in? (He’s still not in, right? Hard to remember.) I don’t know what the waiting period is for the NFL Hall ballot, but if you take long enough many of those guys won’t even be able to remember their own playing days.

Hey, why not make it 25 years, or 35 years, or 45? You can sure learn a lot in 45 years, you can go from primitive black and white TV to the infant Internet. Just think of how much more we’ll know in 2057. How exciting it will be to see all those great 100-year-old stars in their wheelchairs and walkers with their nursing aides hovering next to them to wipe the drool. What an attractive picture.

If the BBWAA had only five years to make a decision, they could make a decision in five years. If they had only one year, they could make it in one year. It’s in the nature of human beings to procrastinate, to put off the tough decisions until the last possible moment. I don’t think they want more time to ponder or cogitate or whatever. I think they just don’t want to make the tough calls until they’re absolutely forced to.

BTW, how do we know for certain that Barry Larkin wasn’t juiced? Look at that age 32 season, where did all those HRs come from so suddenly? Why does Larkin go in in three years while Bagwell gets punted again? No suspicions about Larkin? Why not?

by bucdaddy on Jan 10, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Reductio ad absurdum

“Hey, why not make it 25 years, or 35 years, or 45?”

Because that’d be silly. There’s a structure already in place. Bagwell is emerging from an era in which most of the top power hitters have been found, admitted to, or accused of cheating. A lot has been learned in a short time. Many voters may be leary about the things they don’t know.

It’s obvious that far more voters view him favorably than they do McGwire. They’re being cautious with any candidate from a tremendously tumultous era — and they have plenty of allocated time to BE reasonably cautious. What’s wrong with a little thoughtful caution? I’d far rather see that than a knee-jerk knucklehead like that one writer.

After all, Neyer’s “Immodest Proposal” aside, once they get in…they’re in.

I support Bagwell. One of my fondest baseball memories is seeing him as a rookie rip a screaming line drive over the wall at Baseball City off Cy Young winner Bret Saberhagen. Hardest ball I ever saw hit. I just don’t have a problem with a little caution.

by Scarecrow13 on Jan 10, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

"a little thoughtful caution"?

I’m I’ll for thoughtful caution, but 15 years? You can be born an 8-pound baby and grow into a 6-foot-6, 270-pound high school sophomore defensive lineman while you’re waiting for the BBWAA to exercise “a little thoughtful caution.” You can go from taking your first legal drink to buying your first midlife crisis toy while you’re waiting for the BBWAA to exercise “a little thoughtful caution.” You can go from your kid’s first-grade school play to your first grandkid while you’re waiting for the BBWAA to exercise “a little thoughtful caution.” You go from retiring at 65 to outliving the actuarial tables and dying an old man while you’re waiting for the BBWAA to exercise “a little thoughtful caution.”

“Reductio ad absurdum” my … left clavicle. There’s nothing absurd about it. There’s nothing anyone can say about why a 15-year period works best that I can’t say a 25-year period works better, or 35. There’s nothing magical about 15 years, nothing that says “Everything that needs to be known and will ever be known about this guy will be known in 15 years.” THAT is absurd. It’s an artificial time period that just as easily could have been five years, or 50.

As for being “leery about the things they don’t know,” again: These guys are REPORTERS. It’s their job to find out the things they don’t know. They have the tools, they have the training, they have the access, they have the knowledge. They can pick up the phone and get anyone associated with baseball on the line. Maybe they should get to work and quit waiting for someone else to do their fact-finding for them.

by bucdaddy on Jan 10, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Baby steps need to be taken first before they could grasp what you propose.

First thing that should get fixed about the HOF vote is players who DO DESERVE to be on a HOF ballot stay on the HOF ballot.I will mention 2 players who should of at least been on the ballot for 15 years elected or not, Both due to absurd wasted votes for players who should of never been on the ballot caused them to be removed from futeue consideration. For example Last year Harold Baines ( 2866 lifetime hits – thats 134 short of 3000 & it is more than that to point out about Baines ) was 1 was lost from the ballot . This year Juan Gonzalez ( Yea that Jaun Gonzalez ) These 2 players would should and desreved to be on the ballot for at least 15 years. Writers who voted for players Bill Mueller (4 votes) Brad Radke (2) Eric Young (1) Javy Lopez(1) caused the removal of qualified players.If these votes were cast for Baines or Gonzalez they would still be on the ballot with 6% or 7%. There needs to be baby steps in fixing this less than 5% and you are removed forever rule. I suggest that it should changed to be removed you need to have at least 2 or more years straight of less than 5% so you can weed out the un-qualified but don’t allow a player that is qualified to be removed by not gettiing a vote cast for a person who should never EVER should of been suggested on the ballot in the fist place. Maybe then could set a % of 4% as a safty net % to not allow this to happen. Lets fix this ploblem and then take a next step to fix bigger problems.

by CCMUFFIN2 on Jan 10, 2012 9:13 AM EST reply actions  

i love Bags, grew up watching him,

and i think he’ll get in just fine. and also, i know nothing about how the hall of fame works. so in my ignorance, and there not already too many people in the hall? seems like there has been a slight watering down over the years. again, i’m admitting complete ignorance on the subject. glad i found this blog though! SB nation et al rocks!

by Jameson Vernon on Jan 10, 2012 4:41 PM EST reply actions  

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