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Boston Red Sox Go Bargain-Hunting

Earlier today, Jeff Sullivan wrote about Edwin Jackson's continuing search for a contending team willing to sign him to a long-term contract. A search that doesn't seem to be going real well. Nick Cafardo:

Lots of buzz out there about the possibility that free-agent righty Edwin Jackson may accept a one-year deal with a contender to improve his value and go back into the free-agent market next season.

--snip--

Boston, which has offered a one-year deal in the $5-$6 million range according to major league sources, is definitely in the hunt. But if they're the contending team that's going to land him, it hasn't happened yet.

--snip--

He's 28 years old and has No. 1 caliber stuff and can give you close to 200 innings, which is a need for the Red Sox. But while having No. 1 stuff, he's pitched more like a middle-rotation starter throughout his career.

I'm not sure how relevant his No. 1 caliber stuff is, without No. 1 caliber performance. Except there's always a pitching coach who thinks he can fix a guy. Except he usually can't.

Jackson did take a step forward in 2009, but even since then his strikeout-to-walk ratio is just 2.33, which would be real good for an extreme ground-ball pitcher but Jackson still gives up roughly one home run every nine innings. He's a good pitcher and pitchers are weird so maybe he'll be great someday. But probably not.

Still, Edwin Jackson's better than "the $5-$6 million range" and the Red Sox know that as well as anyone. He's been worth (roughly) three times that much in each of the last three seasons. If the Sox are really offering Jackson that pittance, they're either reading the market really well or are just fishing on a strict budget.

And if Jackson gets a penny less than $10 million to pitch this year, somebody on his side is doing it wrong.

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He's been traded a lot.

He’s been traded five times in his career, and three times (!) since the end of the 2009 season. I wonder if there’s something negative signaled from that.

Learn something new every day: http://dlewis.net/nik

by Dan Lewis on Jan 31, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds bad...

But if you look at each trade in isolation it doesn’t seem like a question of “character” or “locker-room issues” or “chemistry” or any other such cliche.

by bdjeff42 on Jan 31, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Rob, am I reading this right?

He has been worth $15 to $18 million in EACH of the last three years?

“Still, Edwin Jackson’s better than “the $5-$6 million range” and the Red Sox know that as well as anyone. He’s been worth (roughly) three times that much in each of the last three seasons."

by PentePro on Jan 31, 2012 5:14 PM EST reply actions  

Various WARs

Jackson’s various WAR numbers:
fWAR: 3.6, 3.8, 3.8
rWAR: 4.3, 1.7, 3.1
Hardball Times WAR: 4.3, 2.2, 3.6
BP WARP: 1.9, 2.3, 1.5

At $5 million per WAR, that’s:
$18, $19, $19 million per fWAR
$21.5, $8.5, $15.5 million per rWAR
$21.5, $11, $18 million per THT WAR
$9.5, $11.5, $7.5 million per WARP

If I’m his agent, I’m using fWAR. “Look how consistently terrific he’s been! Edwin Jackson is worth $18 million a year”

If I’m a GM, I’m calling BS. “He’s been mediocre and/or inconsistent. I’ll go two years and $16 million TOTAL.”

by GBSimons on Jan 31, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Kuroda went for 10M. Maybe Jackson will come cheap, too.

We heard that he supposedly has multiple three-year deals at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/edwin-jackson-has-multiple-three-year-offers.html.

I’m guess thing that THOSE might be in the 6 million dollar a year range. I’m sure that several teams in the league would be in on Jackson for 5-6 Million. Harang and Capuano got more than that from a bad GM, and there is more than one bad GM in the league.

by Real Tom on Jan 31, 2012 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

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