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Jan 30, 2012 - Over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, they've posted the 2012 standings based on Marcel projections, which are really "dumb" but do a surprisingly good job. Here are the American League postseason teams, assuming Commissioner Bud gets his way and each league has two Wild Cards ...
ALE: Yankees
ALC: Tigers
ALW: Angels / Rangers (tie)
WC1: Red Sox
WC2: Rays
As the author admits, he doesn't attempt to project MLB performance for anyone who hasn't played MLB baseball. Instead he assumes league-average performance. This obviously might be understating the Rangers' chances, as Yu Darvish figures to be better than league-average. The Rangers are paying for a lot more than that, anyway. Who else? Matt Moore, who did pitch in the majors very briefly, and one wonders what his 2012 projection looks like.
Of course, what's notable in those projected standings is that nothing's particularly notable. With the exception of the Angels tying the Rangers out West, this is exactly what would have happened last season if there had been two Wild Cards available. Well, except the Red Sox and Rays would have been flipped, just barely.
It's not like there's anything there to quibble with, though. You probably would have come up with essentially the same answers without running a single number, based purely what happened last summer and what's happened this winter. Of course, we know we'll be surprised somewhere. We just don't know where. It's nice to see the Royals (not pictured here) making the playoffs 17 percent of the time.
Not many surprises in the ol' Senior Circuit, either ...
NLE: Phillies
NLC: Reds
NLW: Rockies / D'backs / Giants
WC1: Braves
WC2: Rockies / D'backs / Giants
No real surprises here, either. But if you dig a little, you'll see that the Reds actually win their division by more games -- five, ahead of the second-place Cardinals -- than any other team in the majors. In no other division does the winner win more by more than two games.*
* That is, when you combine all the seasons in the simulation. We wouldn't actually expect everyone to be so bunched up, but to get reasonably close results you have to regress everything, and when you regress everything you lose most of the highs and lows. Just the nature of the beast.
I honestly don't know why the Reds would finish so far ahead of the Cardinals -- projected to win only 84 games, with the Brewers winning 81. Last season the Cards outscored their opponents by 70 runs, the Reds by only 15. The Reds have added Mat Latos and bolstered their bullpen, but the Cardinals have added Carlos Beltrán and get Adam Wainwright back, which figures to balance the loss of Albert Pujols.
I'm not saying the projection is "wrong"; I'm just saying I don't immediately understand it. But of course projecting a team's performance is about a lot more than three or four players. It's about 50 or 60. So I don't distrust something that says the Reds will be five games better than the Cardinals. Well, no more than I distrust everything else. It just makes me curious.
Anyway, this is just one set of projections. There will be others, just as rationally constructed but some of them significantly different than the above. I'll bet you somebody smart comes up with the Yankees in third place. Which could, of course, actually happen.
Strange things do happen, but of course it's hard to figure what they'll be. That's why they call them strange.
Anyway, this is all good fun in January. We'll check back a few times before Opening Day, I'm sure.
11 comments
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My guess is Marcel isn't fond of Wainwright
As I understand, it’s just a simple projection from the last three years, with the last year most heavily weighted. Which means as far as Marcel is concerned, Wainwright didn’t pitch last season — it doesn’t care why not. It’s probably also projecting Beltran to miss a hunk o’ time because of the two years before that.
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by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 30, 2012 4:30 PM EST reply actions
It probably doesn't really believe in Berkman, either
And I don’t know that I disagree with it. He’s a 36-year old coming off the highest OPS+ of his career. 2009 and 2010 were each years of decline for him, and 2011 was the bounce-back. If I was a computer, I’d probably expect him to continue his overall decline. In fact, I’m not a computer, and I expect him to continue his overall decline. He should still be good, but I bet he won’t start the All-Star game again, and his bat won’t be as impressive at 1st base as it was in RF (though his defense will be better masked).
by ahhall on Jan 30, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions
So...
Rockies win the 2012 World Series?
/holds breath
by PioneerSkies on Jan 30, 2012 5:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yankees / Sox / Rays
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think this scenario is not incredibly unlikely if not this year than in the future.
Red Sox(100 wins)
Yankees (99)
Rays (94)
Yankees play the Sox the last 3 games of the season.
In that case the Yanks and Sox are in a dogfight for 1st, because the 2nd place team has to face the Rays in a 1 game playoff. The Rays end up favored because they get to line up their #1 while the Yanks and Sox have to burn theirs. The Rays win that game, upsetting what a 162 game season and 18 head to head games determined. They might even have the edge in the divisional series because they have their #2 starting while the winner of the division might be down to #3 or #4.
This gets even worse if the Yanks and Sox tie. Then they have a 1 game playoff against each other to determine who gets to play another 1 game playoff against the Rays before playing the winner of the division in a 5 game series.
Tell me again what problem we’re trying to solve. Sure it’s exciting, but so are lotteries.
by David Moore on Jan 30, 2012 6:06 PM EST reply actions
I doubt MLB would let that happen if it were a concern
If the Yanks and Sox decide that playing each other in the last series of the season would put them at a competitive disadvantage, then the schedule-makers will find a way to have them not play each other in the last series of the season.
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by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 30, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
Except
ESPN wants the Yankees and Red Sox to play on the final week of the season. This is even if the games are just for playoff positioning while the real news is that the Minnesota Twins have to win their final three games of the season and hope the Cleveland Indians lose at least one game, in order to have a shot at the division in a one game playoff.
That is the difference between the thinking of Bud Selig and the status quo. Whenever there has been a one game playoff, it has been as an expansion of the regular season and not to provide extra money for the owners. The greatest examples were the following:
1. The 1978 AL East race where Boston blew an 11 game lead and ended up losing the one game playoff on Bucky Dent’s home run.
2. The 2008 Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins who were basically involved in a tight battle for the division and couldn’t win at the opposing team’s ballpark. The game was won via Jim Thome’s sole home run.
3. The 2009 Minnesota Twins who won the Division after being down seven games in early September and then forcing a one game playoff with the Tigers and winning that game in what was viewed as a microcosm of the 2009 seasons for both teams.
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by Jessy S on Jan 30, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
It's not solving a problem
But it is potentially messing with the Yankees, or Red Sox, or both; and especially it potentially messes with their respective fanbases. Which is the one thing pretty much everybody else who follows baseball would be in happy and hardy agreement with.
by J0SER on Jan 31, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Don't get the love for the Rockies
I’ve got the Diamondbacks winning the West by quite a few games….
by Undocorkscrew on Jan 31, 2012 12:35 AM EST reply actions
I do and I don't
I’m a Rox fan and I see mostly unproven potential. Two of the three best starters on the roster are returning from serious injury, Moscoso is an extreme flyball producer, and White/Pomeranz/Rogers haven’t shown any consistency yet (except in their underwhelming mediocrity). I’m not sold on Cuddyer as much of an upgrade over Seth Smith—IIRC MC has some home/road and platoon split issues of his own. In my mind I see D’backs as at least slight favorites and slightly more talented, with Rockies and Giants hoping to outwit them with smoke and mirrors. In “reality,” we never know how anyone will truly perform, veterans and rookies alike, and that’s what makes the offseason fun for most of us. Or delusional.
by littleE on Jan 31, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
This outlook is crazy, It has the A's at 82 wins.
Which one of these projection sets do you best predict standings?
MARCEL, CAIRO, OLIVER?
I do a like piece on Athletics Nation about this.
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by David Fung on Jan 31, 2012 2:36 AM EST reply actions
Rob how about an article...
…going over the various projection systems, how they work, what they look at, and how accurate they are.
For a casual observer like myself Im vaguely aware of Marcels, Chone, Cairo, Pecota, etc… but not rly how they differ and why. You should look into that.
by Brendl on Jan 31, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions
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