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Pitchers in the National League are really good. Some of the best in the world! Pitchers in the American League are even better, and now Prince Fielder gets to face them 144 times in one season.
Jan 27, 2012 - One of my hobby horses over the last some years has been the American League's obvious superiority over the National League, which of course some National League fans would just like to wish away.
Sorry. That doesn't work. MGL:
Since 2005 (an arbitrary beginning point mind you), the AL has a .555 WP in IL games. That is a lot! That suggests an average AL team would be a 90 win team in the NL.
My research in the past (do a search in this blog and I think I wrote a piece a while back on THT or BP) indicated that the edge has mostly been in pitching and in fact the NL may have had equal or better hitting than the AL in the last few years. Keep in mind this has nothing to do with league rpg or ERA or the fact that the AL bats 9 real hitters and the NL only 8 (plus pinch hitters for the pitcher of course). When we say that the AL is a better pitching team that means that if you took a pitcher from the AL and put him the NL, his rank among pitchers and thus his value, like WAR, would go up. Same for batters.
Mickey then runs through some moderately complicated calculations, most of which I moderately understand. Anyway, the upshot is that in 2011, nearly all of the American League's big edge was due to better pitching: pitching, a little fielding, and a teeny tiny bit of better hitting.
Has the pitching equation changed this winter? Not really. I believe that only two truly notable starting pitchers have changed leagues: Hiroki Kuroda to the American, Mark Buehrle to the National. Well, the Athletics' housecleaning sent both Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill to the National League. But Edwin Jackson and/or Roy Oswalt seem likely to move from the National to the American. Overall, the equation's not likely to change much in 2012; if the American League was the better league because of better pitching last season, the American League will probably be the better league because of better pitching this season.
Which I bring up today because a) I grew up resenting the National League, always bullying my poor little American Leaguers in the All-Star Game; and 2) hey, we have another reason to think the Detroit Tigers aren't getting the Prince Fielder they think they're getting.
We know that baseball players typically peak between the ages of 26 and 28, and Fielder turns 28 this spring. We also know that heavy players, historically speaking, don't age well. At all.
We know that Comerica Park is tough on left-handed power hitters. How tough? Over the last three seasons, Comerica has been the fifth-toughest (for homers) in the American League. Granted, Fielder doesn't hit many cheap home runs and might be little affected by that spacious right-field territory. But I'll bet you Comerica costs him two or three taters per season.
And now we know that Prince Fielder will soon be facing tougher pitchers than he's used to. And with smaller benches in the American League, there are presumably a few more lefty relievers available to A.L. managers.
Prediction: Prince Fielder hits 32 home runs in 2012. Leaving a lot of fans in Detroit to wonder if 32 home runs are worth $23 million. Before the decline begins.
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“Welcome To The American League,
Prince FielderAlbert Pujols”Seems like I missed the (at least month-old) analysis where a premier NL Central bat moved to the AL and had the new challenges of hitting illustrated so succinctly.
It may not mean much in a playoff run against AL East/West opponents, but for WAR and raw stats, it seems like the slightly better dimensions to RF at Comerica and the mostly anonymous pitching of the Central would favor Fielder at a Tiger over Fielder as a Brewer.
I’ll lay out the Detroit welcome mat for Prince. He’s definitely valued in our franchise.
Guillen says‚ "¿Que?"
by 51hr_slurpee on Jan 27, 2012 2:52 PM EST reply actions
Difference: Albert went to Los Angeles
So that’s OK with everyone. Nothing to see here!
by Oberon on Jan 27, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Probably a couple reasons for this
Pujols isn’t as one-dimensional a player as Fielder is, and isn’t overweight. However he is older, so it’d be interesting to see a projection of which one of these guys is likely to be more productive in five years.
With Pujols, most of the commentary hasn’t been about the move to the AL, though – it’s been more along the lines of “you gave a ten-year contract to a 32-year-old player? Are you CRAZY?”
by Westside guy on Jan 28, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
A few things to consider
A) AL Central pitching as a whole, outside of the Tigers, is awful.
B) Fielder will play regularly in hitter friendly parks like US Cellular, Progressive and Kauffmann
C) Fans in Detroit are smarter than you think. We’re less interested in his HR total than his RBI total and runs scored totals, and most importantly – the win total, which will rise with Prince in the fold.
by jelletlambie on Jan 27, 2012 3:05 PM EST reply actions
parks...
God, I forgot about the band boxes at the Cell and KC. Plus it gets about 120 degrees in KC and fly balls never land.
God bless you, Mike Illich!
Guillen says‚ "¿Que?"
by 51hr_slurpee on Jan 27, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting.
It happens to be the White Sox who lead the AL in pitching WAR over the past five years. Also, the Tigers are in fourth place in their DIVISION in that category, ahead of only the Indians. If you prefer more recent vintages, the White Sox are also in front if you look at the past three years (though the Tigers are much better there, at fifth in the AL).
"The Sox have a better home record than the Twins, but...we're not at home right now." -DJ
by Joist on Jan 31, 2012 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
Location, location, location...
(FA) signs mega deal on the coast: They are all in! What a coup!
(FA) signs mega deal in Detroit: WTF? Worst. Deal. Ever.
Guillen says‚ "¿Que?"
by 51hr_slurpee on Jan 27, 2012 3:08 PM EST reply actions
People thought the Pujols signing was dumb, too
by ThirteenOfTwo on Jan 27, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but nobody ever wrote a piece wondering loudly if he'd be able to hit American League pitching
Or if he’d be able to adapt to the Angels’ ballpark. Or if he’d ever be able to lift Orange County on his shoulders and give them the winning team… oh, wait, that’s only something that happens to Detroit teams. My bad.
Point is, it does seem like people are ragging on the Tigers and Illitch way more than anyone ragged on the Angels or Moreno. Granted, Pujols might be a bit more durable, isn’t the size of the Michelin man, and can play first base with competence. But still. It’s still irritating to Detroit fans.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
by jhitts08 on Jan 27, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps I am wrong but
Didn’t Detroit win the Central last year? Weren’t they the favorites to win the Central again this year (before the Prince signing)? Didn’t Anaheim miss the playoffs the last two seasons? Without Pujols (and Wilson) I don’t think many would have picked them to win the West in 2012.
I have no problem with fans looking past the flaws of their favorite players and teams, but to pretend that only your team gets ragged on probably only speaks to the fact that you are less likely to read every story about the Pujols signing than you are to read every story about the Fielder signing.
Don’t let it get to you too much, eventually I will forgive the Royals for signing Davis and Davis. And eventually this will all be forgiven as well.
ps. just as a fan of the Rangers, and the Royals, I can tell you that in my opinion the Pujols signing worries me more than the Fielder signing.
by andy.richter on Jan 28, 2012 2:19 AM EST up reply actions
As long as he is driving in runs, does it matter?
Rob, I like your writing, but you do seem to be beating this thing to the ground. (And, as a previous poster said, I do not remember reading this from you about Albert when he switched leagues.)
Fact: Victor Martinez hit only 12 home runs last season, in those spacious confines of Comerica. Yet he was one of the most valuable hitters in the league last year. Probably because his OPS was 850 and he was hitting behind Miggy Cabrera.
Granted, VMart has never been a pure power hitter like Prince. But if Prince is producing and scoring runs (and wins), then Detroit fans are going to love him regardless of how many homers he hits.
"I believe in a good kick in the ass. This— I believe. " -- Walker Percy
I tweet about stuff sometimes @jackhitts.
by jhitts08 on Jan 27, 2012 3:08 PM EST reply actions
Why aren't people talking about this more?
Looking at the photo above – if you put a hat on Mike Ilitch, he’d look just like Harpo Marx.
by Westside guy on Jan 28, 2012 8:03 PM EST reply actions
We have another reason to think the Detroit Tigers aren't getting the Prince Fielder they think they're getting."
Who is this “We” that you post of, Neyer?
Are you attempting to turn this into an ALL MLB fans vs Tigers fans issue about our franchise’s brass having signed Prince Fielder?
Because it sure reads like that, IMO.
“Prediction: Prince Fielder hits 32 home runs in 2012. Leaving a lot of fans in Detroit to wonder if 32 home runs are worth $23 million. Before the decline begins.”
Hope you end up eating ALL of your words, along with a nest of crows, not that I ever plan on EVER reading any more of them, anyway.
by DDL56 on Jan 28, 2012 8:10 PM EST reply actions
If a writer’s opinion (backed up by analysis and facts) really upsets you this much, I suggest you take a deep breath and reevaluate your life. He writes about sports for a living. He is doing his job. There are some deals he will like and others he will not like. If this Fielder deal turns out well, he will probably be right here to admit he was wrong. Where will you be if he turns out to be right? Are you right on all your predictions? If Rob is so bad at it and you are so good, why aren’t you being paid to write your predictions? There is a reason Rob is a well-paid sports writer and you are not. I should also note that you did not make one single counterargument nor did you even attempt to refute any of Rob’s points.
Also, the “we” refers to the vast number of people (myself included) who think this will be a terrible deal. Are you really unaware that outside of Detroit people seem worried about this deal?
by PentePro on Jan 30, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
A murder of crows
Unless you really meant a nest of baby crows, then it would be a nest of simps.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 4, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Success depends on your context
[Disclaimer: The following comment was cogitated by a Royals fan.] It seems almost sure that, from Rob’s and other national baseball analysts’ perspectives, this is an incredibly bad deal. They are looking at it in terms of long-term financial impacts to the team, and using known facts and history to make their evaluations.
However, as has been stated, Illich is old. He wants to win league championships and World Series SOON. Most fans want the same, and are willing to sacrifice future potential for results now. If the Royals ever had the buckets of cash needed to make such a crazy, stupid decision I would feel a little nauseous thinking about 2020—and then I’d be getting excited to watch my new star mash for the next however-long-it-lasts. For Illich, that pleasure may be priceless.
by littleE on Jan 31, 2012 7:28 PM EST reply actions
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