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Tim Lincecum is coming up on arbitration, and while the Giants have offered $17 million, Lincecum has requested $21.5 million - the highest request ever for a player in his situation.
Jan 17, 2012 - Tim Lincecum isn't set to become a free agent for another two years. That's good news, for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is eligible for arbitration in the meantime. That's worse news, for the Giants. Because the Giants are going to have to pay Tim Lincecum an awful lot of money.
Lincecum just wrapped up a two-year, $23 million contract he signed in February 2010. The Giants are trying to sign him to a longer-term contract. Lincecum is looking for a shorter-term contract. For now, both sides had to submit arbitration figures before Tuesday's deadline. The figures are in, and the figures are big:
Tim files at $21.5M, giants at $17M
Lincecum had a $13 million base salary in 2011, so the Giants are offering him a substantial raise. Lincecum is seeking a more substantial raise. As a matter of fact, Lincecum's request is the biggest request ever for a player with fewer than six years of playing time. Previously, the biggest request belonged to Derek Jeter in 2001, when he asked for $18.5 million. When you account for inflation, Jeter's request is bigger, but who ever accounts for inflation in these things? That would be too sciencey and accurate.
If this goes all the way to arbitration in February, an arbitrator will hear arguments from both sides and choose a salary of either $17 million or $21.5 million. Either/or, no in-between. It may not get there, though - Lincecum and the Giants can continue to negotiate, and they could agree to a settlement or a multi-year contract. That two-year deal Lincecum just finished was agreed to shortly before a hearing.
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Comments
So Lincecum is arb 2?
would he have been Super 2 had he not signed the 2 year deal that just ended?
Based on the standard 40-60-80 arbitration award estimates often bandied around, if Lincecum is arb 2, that means Lincecum is valuing himself at $35M on the free-agent market. He’s a great pitcher, sure, but that’s insane.
by SuckaMD on Jan 17, 2012 6:59 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, he would've been Super Two
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 17, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
I know about the 40-60-80 estimates
but are there any similar guidelines for Super Twos, who have 4 years of arbitration? Is it something like 20-40-60-80?
by SuckaMD on Jan 17, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
I believe that is correct
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 17, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Lincecum was worth 35mm on the FA market
as recently as two years ago according to fWAR.
Also, as a FA he was worth 20mm last year and the year before.
So while it might be somewhat high for where he is now, it’s not completely outrageous to me for him to ask for 20 in arbitration.
by aronofsky40 on Jan 17, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, it kind of is.
You really think any team would pay him $35 MM/year? Albert Pujols is probably the best player in baseball and is not a pitcher. Pujols just got about $25 MM/year from the Angels. Sabathia’s AAV is well south of $30 MM. No way does Lincecum make $35 MM/year.
Adopted father of Chris Lincecum, without whom (quite literally) Timmy would not exist.
by speckops on Jan 17, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
He won't
but if his numbers don’t dip I can easily see him getting 20-25mm on the FA market. And if his numbers don’t dip he’d be worth it.
by aronofsky40 on Jan 17, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
btw pujols
according to fWAR, has not been the best player in baseball over the last 2 years. In fact, he hasn’t even been tthe 5th best player in baseball.
by aronofsky40 on Jan 17, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
rWAR
According to rWAR (and using $4.5 million per WAR), Lincecum was worth $31 million in ’08, $28 million in ’09, $16 million in 2010 and $20 million in 2011.
Also, players give up some salary in return for the security of a long-term deal. If Lincecum signs a multi-year deal, I’d guess three years and $65 million.
by GBSimons on Jan 18, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
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