Sep 14, 2011 - Joe Posnanski has written a wonderful piece titled "The Meaning of 600 Saves", but it's really more about the meaning of saves, generally. And while I hate to do this because now you might not read the whole thing, here's Posnanski's big finish:
I really do think baseball has been dramatically altered by a statistic invented by a perturbed sportswriter. Let’s end this thing with one more thought about Rivera. He is the best relief pitcher who ever lived. But he’s also a failed starter. Baseball is such a fickle game. When I think of Rivera setting the save record, I think about how PERFECTLY he fits his era, his space, his team, his role. There are so few people who are ideal for their moment of time. John Wayne was, I think. Johnny Carson. Elvis. Lucille Ball. John Unitas. Michael Jackson. Senfield.. Oprah. Michael Jordan. If they had come around in another era, in different circumstances, there’s no telling how they might have expressed their talents, but it seems likely that they would not have inspired a generation.
If Rivera had come up in another time, he would have been great. But he might not have anything approaching 600 saves. If he had been with another team, he would have been great. But we might not have known just how good he was in the playoffs. And if he had been used 120 or 130 innings a year, he would have been great. But maybe he would not be as brilliant as ever at age 41. All of that is impossible to know, of course. What we do know is how good Mariano Rivera has been. When he breaks the record, raise a glass to him … and also to Jerome Holtzman who invented a flawed statistic that has changed the game and also made Mariano Rivera larger than life.
I've got two completely different minds about this.
First, we don't know that Rivera would have been great in another time. We don't know that Rivera would have been great if he'd been used for 120 or 130 innings per year; very few relief pitchers have been able to handle that sort of workload for long. The only thing we know is that Rivera has been perfectly suited to throwing 70-80 innings per season. Better suited than any other pitcher who's been asked to do it. The rest of it, we can barely guess.
I also have to say this, though ... Mariano Rivera is not "a failed starter".
Not in my book, anyway.
Do you know how many starts Rivera got in the majors?
Ten.
Granted, that's more than Bruce Sutter or Dan Quisenberry (zero apiece) got.
But it's fewer than Rollie Fingers or Goose Gossage (37 apiece) got.
Rivera got 10 starts in the majors, and yes: he struggled as a starter.
In the minors, though?
In 13 triple-A starts, he posted a 3.98 ERA with 53 strikeouts and 13 walks in 61 innings.
In 9 double-A starts, he posted a 2.27 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 8 walks in 63 innings.
In 17 fast-A starts, he posted a 2.25 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 17 walks in 96 innings.
(I know that's a lot of numbers, but here are just two more: In Rivera's first professional season, he pitched 52 innings in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and gave up one earned run. Granted, he was pitching out of the bullpen. Maybe his ultimate role should have been obvious from the beginning.)
Obviously, Rivera didn't make a lot of starts in the high minors ... but that was largely because he was pitching so well as a starting pitcher that he kept getting promoted.
So yes, he failed as a starter in the majors ... but only in the sense that he performed poorly in the exceptionally limited opportunity that he was given to perform. My opinion is that if he'd been with almost any other organization, he would have been given a greater opportunity as a starter, and would have eventually have been successful.
Of course, the odds are hugely against him having becoming a Hall of Fame starter, or even winning 100 games. Rivera was not regarded as a truly premier prospect, perhaps because he didn't reach triple-A until he was 25. And the odds are stacked against even premier prospects.
But I just don't think he started enough games in the majors to have failed.
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Comments
Well....
I agree that he never had the time to actually fail as a starter, but why are you so sure that “with almost any other organization, he would have been given a greater opportunity as a starter, and would have eventually have been successful.”? Isn’t it just as likely or unlikely he would have been made into a reliever in any other organization? Pretty impossible to know.
by Fielder's Choice on Sep 14, 2011 7:32 PM EDT reply actions
No, it isn't just as likely.
The Yankees, because they’re always trying to win today, have always been particularly impatient with young starters. You want to see a list of young starting pitchers the Yankees have either turned into relief pitchers or traded?
by Rob Neyer on Sep 14, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
From a Yankees fan...
….please no. I like to be able to sleep at night.
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by Brandon C. on Sep 14, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
i get it.. but stfu and get over yourself
youre just trying to get attention, or get in on the argument.. blah blah..
Bottom line
Save exists
Closer role exists
there is prestige to it, there is something badass about it, he was on the mound for a lot of conclusions of winning games..
loads of other people have been doing it, and he towers over them all..
by willlinn on Sep 14, 2011 8:21 PM EDT reply actions
Yes. Let’s just keep using the best guy out of the bullpen in order to get the last three outs of a 4-1 game. Everybody else does it!
by another simpsons avatar on Sep 14, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
dude..
teams loose in the 9th.. and it takes a kind of nerve..
The mistake of the save is that people think the best reliever should be the closer…
no..
the dude with the most nerve who is a really good reliever should be a closer..
and preferably a dude that strikes guys out and keeps it out of play
by willlinn on Sep 14, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
oh and.. dude throws for the yankees
tell me there isnt assloads of pressure out there in the 9th
by willlinn on Sep 14, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you're being all..
..antagonistic, and trollish and stuff..but it’s ‘lose’. Not ‘loose’. I’m sorry, it drives me nuts. No offense.
And all how would you determine which pitcher has the most nerve? I mean, I’m all for not having the best reliever pitch the ninth though. Papelbon has pitched 7 innings in 25 of the last games. 0 saves, 1 hit, 2 BBs, 0 ERs
The team went 11-14.
by Dale Sams on Sep 14, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
and
the save is pretty awesome…
and.. dont tell me other relievers could put up the same numbers in the closers role..
by willlinn on Sep 14, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I won't tell you that.
I will tell you that a lot of good starters could be great closers.
by Rob Neyer on Sep 14, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Great Starter Does Not Equal Great Closer!
Rob, great article. I’m an unabashed Yankee fan, have been since childhood, have stuck with the team through the whack-a-mole manager days of the 1980s as well as the dark, dark seasons of the early 1990s.
To the folks who say lots of great starting pitchers would make Rivera-grade or better closers… I give you John Smoltz.
Smoltz in his heyday was a great starter, a real horse… then Atlanta, lacking a closer, asked Smoltz to fill the role. He closed four seasons (2001-2004). During his best, he posted a monster ERA+ of 385! But he was never able to replicate that… in fact, his second-best season as a closer posted an ERA+ of 157.
Rivera has AVERAGED an ERA+ of 205 over the course of 17 seasons… and that number includes his dalliances as a “failed” starter, too.
Mariano Rivera is truly something special… and the fact that he’s so well suited to his role doesn’t diminish in the least from his greatness, any more than it diminishes, say, Lou Gehrig’s legacy that he wasn’t a catcher.
by pinstriper on Sep 15, 2011 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
From 2001 to 2004, as a closer, John Smoltz posted a 163 ERA+
That was ages 34-37.
The only relief pitchers with better career ERA+ than that (800+ IP) are Rivera and Billy Wagner.
It’s not too much of a stretch to say that if John Smoltz was a closer for his entire career, he probably could have been among the top five closers ever.
Are you sure Smoltz is the best example to make a case that great starters aren’t great closers?
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
by adarowski on Sep 15, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t say great starters can’t be great closers. I was addressing the other side of that particular coin: that a great closer is nothing more than a failed starter… and the similar argument that a great starter could easily become a great closer. Smoltz was among the best of his era, and serves as a great example of the flaw in that logic. He was very good as a closer! …but not quite Rivera-esque… and most major league starters fall below Smoltz’s ability level. Starting and closing are two different animals, that’s all, and one doesn’t imply the other. I don’t know why some people have such a hard time understanding that.
Incidentally, Rivera’s average ERA+ for ages 34-37 is 234.
by pinstriper on Sep 15, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't see why he has to be as good as Rivera.
Just because he wasn’t Rivera doesn’t mean he wasn’t elite. You say he was very good, but still dismiss him compared with Rivera. I mean, Gehrig was good. But he wasn’t Ruth!
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
by adarowski on Sep 15, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yankees rotation in Mo's first year as closer:
Andy Pettitte
Kenny Rogers
Dwight Gooden
Jimmy Key
David Cone
Ramiro Mendoza
Sounds like there was no space for a rookie. So he went in the bullpen. Then they were like, “holy shit, this guy looks like the best closer in history.” So he stayed there. He never failed. They just figured “Why mess with a good thing?”
Basically, it’s how Papelbon became a closer. He was a very good starter, but he was too good at closing to leave the role.
Now, whether that was the best decision in either case is a completely different thing.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
by adarowski on Sep 15, 2011 12:46 PM EDT reply actions
It's possible the elbow surgery Mariano had back in '92
contributed to the Yanks’ decision to move him to the ’pen long term.
by Paul Bourdett on Sep 15, 2011 1:01 PM EDT reply actions
That makes sense.
He was plagued by arm problems throughout the early years of his career.
He also didn’t develop the cut fastball until 1997. Before that he was just a skinny dude with an easy motion who threw really, really hard.
by pinstriper on Sep 15, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Friends, analysts, Yankee fans, lend me your ears...
I come to bury Mo, not to praise him.
The saves that men collect do live after them;
The cutter is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Rivera. The noble Poz
Hath told you Rivera was a failed starter:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault;
And grievously hath Rivera answer’d it.
Here, under leave of Poz and the rest, —
For Poz is an honorable man;
So are they all, all honorable men, —
Come I to speak in Mo’s 600th save.
He was my closer, faithful and just to me:
But Poz says he was a failed starter;
And Poz is an honorable man.
by Brendl on Sep 15, 2011 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
The starter sample size is even smaller
It is unknown what he would have done as a starter, and the relevant sample size is even smaller than the ten games Poz referenced. It’s only six starts. When Rivera was first called up in early ’95 he basically had a fastball, slider and changeup. He did not have his cutter then. The fastball sat around 90.
His first three starts in the majors did not go well and he was shipped back to AAA. It was during the next month while in AAA that the man who we would get to know as Mariano Rivera began to take shape as a pitcher. His fastball increased to 94-95 as a starter. The Yankees recalled him, and on July 4th, George Steinbrenner’s birthday, the new Rivera with the better fastball started against the Chicago White Sox. He pitched eight innings of two hit ball, struck out eleven batters and didn’t allow a run. His game score was 85. I remember watching the game and thinking this is not the same guy who was up the prior month, and the Yankees might actually have something here.
The Yankees gave Rivera two more starts that month, where he pitched twelve innings, giving up four runs. Not as dominant as his first start back, but quite effective. He then didn’t start for another ten days, and his starts became more sporadic as I’m sure what ever veteran he was filling in for finally returned, and eventually by September he was being used out of the pen for mop-up in blow-out games. Yet even to the Yankees it was clear Rivera had reached a new level, but there was debate on if he was a starter or a reliever.
Rivera sealed his own fate during the 1995 ALDS. In three games when all else was failing he was the only option, yet in two of those games Showalter didn’t use him properly. The first was game two that went 15 innings. With a short bullpen, Showalter was forced to go to the rookie Rivera, who came in and pitched 3.1 innings, striking out three, no runs, and got the win .In game three, with Jack McDowell fading, Showalter went to several relievers, all whom failed, eventually turning to Rivera who shut the door. For Showalter and the Yankees, it was too late. The Mariners had taken the lead. And then in the deciding game five, he did turn to Rivera early, but only let him pitch two-thirds of an innings (once again giving up no runs) before strangely turning over the game to Jack McDowell, who eventually lost it.
That is the series and game that supposedly saved baseball in Seattle and helped get the new stadium built. Showalter to this day says he didn’t quite realize what he had sitting out in the bullpen and he would have went to Rivera sooner and longer if he did. And if he did, then the Yankee dynasty that was to begin in 1996 might have started a year earlier and the Joe Torre era never would have started because the Showalter era never would have ended. Baseball in Seattle? That one can’t answer!
Regardless, Rivera’s performace was so dominating that the Yankees had made up their mind. They need a bridge to the ninth inning and Rivera was going to serve that in 1996. He wasn’t a failed started; he was just an amazing reliever. In an alternate history, or another team, Rivera may have been a Cy Young starter, we’ll never know.
by LordD99 on Sep 20, 2011 4:18 AM EDT reply actions
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