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By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor
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Aug 9, 2011 - Sunday night in the fifth inning when Dustin Pedroia stepped to the plate, ESPN's Dan Shulman said this:
The Red Sox with two acknowledged MVP candidates -- still accounting for the fact that there's about seven weeks left in the season -- Adrian Gonzalez, and Jacoby Ellsbury coming up fast on the outside. And Terry Francona says if Pedroia keeps going like he's been going, maybe they'll have three MVP candidates.
Gonzalez is having a great season.
Ellsbury's having a great season.
But what's made the Red Sox so fantastic this season is they've got five guys having great seasons.
Of the dozen American League hitters with the highest OPS's, five wear the scarlet hose (when they bother to dress uniformly, that is). That's a lot, five.
Wanna guess which of them plays second base brilliantly?
Wanna guess which of them runs the bases brilliantly?
It's the same guy: Dustin Pedroia.
Recently, Buster Olney apparently wasn't comfortable with a bunch of big-hitting first basemen not ranking at the top of the Wins Above Replacement lists. It just looks wrong, I guess. But as our friend Dave Cameron demonstrates, positional adjustments are real (and yes, they're fantastic).
Which is how the Red Sox list looks like this:
Pedroia: 6.7 fWAR
Ellsbury: 5.9
Gonzalez: 5.1
There are, of course, other lists:
Ellsbury: 23 Win Shares
Pedroia: 22
Gonzalez: 20
Pedroia doesn't have Gonzalez's power, or for that matter his batting average.
Pedroia doesn't have Ellsbury's power, either. Not this season, anyway.
What Pedroia does have is almost Ellsbury's power, plus a better stolen-base percentage, other baserunning skills, and a fantastic glove at second base.
The numbers really aren't precise enough to tell us which of these guys has been the best ... and Win Player Average drops Pedroia below Ellsbury and Gonzalez. But regardless of which metrics you prefer, it's pretty hard to avoid concluding that the Red Sox already have three legitimate MVP candidates. Which is why they're where they are.
Of course, I would vote for José Bautista.
Read More: Dustin Pedroia (2B - BOS), Adrian Gonzalez (1B - BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (CF - BOS), Boston Red Sox
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13 comments
National Baseball Editor
Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio
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Comments
What is Win Player Average?
I thought WPA meant Win Probability Added. Are these to things the same?
by Jonas007 on Aug 9, 2011 8:54 AM EDT reply actions
*two
by Jonas007 on Aug 9, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
You are correct.
Win Player Average is not a thing.
by ltrebleg on Aug 9, 2011 9:26 AM EDT reply actions
Also, WPA is a terrible way of judging players.
It’s a story-telling stat, very useful for telling a story of how a game went. It is not a value-measuring stat.
by ThePanda on Aug 9, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure it’s a bad value-measuring stat, as long as you are restricting yourself to looking backwards. Certainly, it has very close to zero value looking forwards.
Geeks of All Nations, Compile!
by AMusingFool on Aug 9, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
It gives players credit for doing well in high-leverage situations,
and that’s a perfectly legitimate thing to take into consideration when determining who was the most valuable in a given season. But yes, don’t use it to predict future performance.
In the game of chess, you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
by jsimon66 on Aug 9, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess it's how you want to measure value.
It’s the difference between measuring “what happened” and “what should have happened given league-average opportunities”. It’s like RBI’s, players are getting rewarded due to what their teammates provide them.
by ThePanda on Aug 9, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
team construction
I think what you see here is a strong synergistic effect. great teams have multiple players that are playing near-MVP levels. bad teams can have MVP-caliber team (A-Rod in Texas, etc.), but great teams assemble players that, once all together in a lineup, complement each other.
For example, how many extra fastballs does AG get because JE or DP is on 1B ready to sprint to 2B? What impact does that have on his Avg. and Slg.?
by bcdcsox on Aug 9, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions
addendum
as an addendum this synergy makes bautista’s April through early July all that much more impressive. he has good hitting teammates but none approach the JE/DP level. i think what i’m arguing for is a multiplier less than 1 to account for really good teammates in the MVP discussion.
by bcdcsox on Aug 9, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Rob, you forgot the guy who's actually going to win it...
Curtis Granderson has been the most valuable player in the American League this season. Without Bautista, the Jays are in 4th place. Without one of Pedroia, Gonzalez or Ellsbury, the Red Sox are still a first place team. Without Granderson, the Yankees are battling with the Rays for 2nd place in the AL East. Granderson has been the catalyst in that potent Yankee offense that has seen injuries and mediocre performances from plenty of its members.
I hate the New York Yankees, but I would say Curtis Granderson has been the most valuable player in the American League this season.
by mattpullman on Aug 9, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
There's definitely an argument to be made for Granderson...
but that sure as shit wasnt it. Going by sum inane logic where we not only penalize a player for how bad the rest of his team is, but now we’re penalizing them for being too good? That’s completely insane.
Funnily enuff the Yanks have 2 players in the top dozen in WAR and one of those players ISNT Texiera(17th), the current AL HR Leader (non-Bautista edition). It’s you guessed it, speedy lil Brett Gardener.
by Brendl on Aug 9, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions
.... , ....
The same way Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright split votes for the Cy Young the past few years, Pedroia, Ellsbury and Gonzalez are all going to split votes for the MVP this year. There’s not a clear cut MVP on that team, how are you going to decide which one is the clear cut MVP of the league?
Bautista is arguably the best player in the American League, but will not win the MVP because his team did nothing and realistically his performance thus far has not been noticeably better than any of the other 4 candidates (3 Sox and Granderson).
Granderson, on the other hand, is the standout MVP on a team that, although lacking in talent compared to the Red Sox, has had control of a playoff spot from Opening Day.
For anyone who thinks Ellsbury is deserving, switch out Granderson for him in the Red Sox lineup and tell me they aren’t a better team offensively and defensively. That knocks Ellsbury out right there, bringing us down to Granderson, Gonzalez and Pedroia (and Miguel Cabrera just because a late surge from him could easily bring him home the trophy).
So, relax Brendl.
by mattpullman on Aug 9, 2011 8:20 PM EDT reply actions
Dont tell me how to feel
Pedroia, Ellsbury and Gonzalez are all going to split votes for the MVP this year. There’s not a clear cut MVP on that team…
Then it’s a very good thing the Blue Jays dont have that problem.
Bautista is arguably the best player in the American League, but will not win the MVP because his team did nothing …
Last I saw all those games Tor played still count in the standings, yes even the ones against the RS and Yanks. And .500 isnt a nothing record either unless you’re using sum kind of George Dubba fuzzy math where all wins under 90 equal 0.
Granderson, on the other hand, is the standout MVP on a team that, although lacking in talent,,,
My oh my those poor Yankess and the lack of talents they’re $200+ mil payroll wont buy them, Thk god they have schlub pitchers like CY candidate Sabathia and HOF closer Rivera to fall back on. Oh u meant the lineup thought right? The same lineup that has 6 of the top 30 WAR players one of which actually leads the AL in HR’s (non Bautista division). My god what a hardship it must be having 2 holes in the lineup.
For anyone who thinks Ellsbury is deserving, switch out
GrandersonBautista for him in the Red Sox lineup and tell me they aren’t a better team offensively and defensively.My thoughts exactly.
by Brendl on Aug 10, 2011 6:45 PM EDT reply actions
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