Boston Red Sox, Adversity Survivors

By Jeff Sullivan - Editor

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Aug 31, 2011 - If you're a Red Sox fan, you probably find this absolutely delightful. If you're everybody else on the planet, you probably find it to be something less than that.

As I write this, the Red Sox are losing to the Yankees Tuesday night. No matter what happens, though, the Red Sox will come away still in possession of baseball's second-best record, a little in front of the Yankees and a little behind the Phillies. It's only the end of August, and while they aren't a postseason guarantee, they're about as close as it gets, as CoolStandings puts their odds at 99 percent. The Red Sox are a playoff lock.

Now, the idea of the Red Sox being a playoff lock is hardly surprising. I think most people assumed the Red Sox would make it before the season even began. They had a big winter, and the Rays were reloading, which cleared the path. Several months ago, the overwhelming majority of people figured the Red Sox would be among baseball's best teams.

But while on the surface the Red Sox have met expectations - which isn't interesting - it gets all weird underneath. Which is interesting. For a good team, an awful lot has gone wrong.

The Red Sox have baseball's second-best record, and they have Carl Crawford. Carl Crawford, to whom the Red Sox committed $142 million last December. Crawford owns an 81 OPS+, and he's posted nine strikeouts for every two walks. For that money, he's been the offensive equivalent of Juan Pierre or Ryan Theriot.

The Red Sox have baseball's second-best record, and they have J.D. Drew. A year ago, Drew posted a 110 OPS+ that was down from his normal area, but still quite good. This year it's fallen to 70, and for the past month-and-a-half Drew has been on the disabled list.

The Red Sox have baseball's second-best record, and they have John Lackey. Over all of baseball, 132 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings. Lackey's ERA ranks second-worst.

The Red Sox have baseball's second-best record, and they have Clay Buchholz. Buchholz was doing just fine for a while, but he hasn't pitched since June 16 because of a back injury that's jeopardized the rest of his season. If Buchholz comes back at all, it will almost certainly be as a reliever.

The Red Sox have baseball's second-best record, and they have Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka pitched poorly, went on the disabled list in the middle of May, and then he underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Tally that up. Crawford and Drew made up two-thirds of Boston's expected regular outfield coming into the year. Lackey, Buchholz and Matsuzaka made up 60 percent of their expected starting rotation. As a unit, they've been an expensive disaster. FanGraphs gives them a combined WAR of 2.5. Baseball-Reference gives them a combined WAR of 0.5.

And, as noted, the Red Sox still have baseball's second-best record.

It helps that Jacoby Ellsbury has come out of nowhere to blossom into a borderline superstar. It helps that Jarrod Saltalamacchia has finally hit. It helps that the rest of the big-name players have performed like big-name players. Despite individual disappointments, the Red Sox haven't missed a beat since the season's third week.

The Red Sox would be a great story if they weren't expected to be a juggernaut from the get-go, and if they weren't the Red Sox. As is, God help their opponents if Crawford, Drew, and/or Lackey turn into contributors the rest of the way. That is a team that doesn't need the boost.

Read More: J.D. Drew (RF - BOS), Daisuke Matsuzaka (P - BOS), Carl Crawford (LF - BOS), John Lackey (P - BOS), Clay Buchholz (P - BOS), Boston Red Sox

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