Position players have thrown just over 200 innings on the mound since 1970. Rather predictably, their numbers are terrible. Except for one number.
Aug 3, 2011 - A week ago, inspired by a shutout inning of relief work from outfielder Mitch Maier, I was inspired to write this piece about the recent success of position players on the mound. It was intended mostly as humor, built around one small-sample-size statistic I found interesting in its absurdity.
It was supposed to be a one-off. I said what I had to say, and I planned to move on. But I couldn't shake the feeling that there was more. It's always an event when position players pitch, and I wanted to dig into their numbers further, to see what I could find.
A problem, obviously, is that position players don't pitch very often. Sample sizes aren't easy to build up. But thanks to Baseball-Reference, I identified 126 position players who have taken the mound since 1970. That's 126 position players, with 184 games and 202-2/3 innings. That's not a huge sample size, but it's decent, and it gives the numbers some heft.
So what do we see in the numbers? Not surprisingly, the numbers are terrible. These are hitters, not pitchers.
Over those 200+ innings, the position players have posted a 7.64 ERA, and a 7.82 RA/9. That ERA is supported by the peripherals, as the position players have generated 77 strikeouts, 157 walks, and 33 home runs. The home runs aren't laugh-out-loud horrible, but they're bad, and the strikeout-to-walk ratio is ghastly. Predictably ghastly, sure, but ghastly nonetheless, as position players possess neither command nor putaway pitches.
But there was one statistic that blew me away. One statistic that caught me so off guard that I double-, triple-, and quadruple-checked it to make sure I didn't screw up the calculation. I looked at the position players' collective batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP). I was expecting something in the mid-.300s or so, figuring that they'd allow a greater rate of solid contact than the typical figure you see with real pitchers. Why wouldn't they? They aren't real pitchers.
But I didn't get a BABIP in the mid-.300s. I got .296.
In other words, I got a BABIP very near the league average. The league average for real pitchers. I think it's a little higher -- the .300 BABIP rule we have in our heads doesn't apply to the 1970s and '80s, when the league BABIP was lower -- but it's not off by much. Over the last few decades, position players have seen a similar number of balls in play find holes as pitchers have.
That's absolutely wild to me. There are caveats, of course. For one, we're dealing with a sample size of 200 innings. That's basically a full season for a starter, which isn't that big a sample size at all. For two, it's possible that, by the time a position player gets called in to pitch, the other team isn't trying as hard anymore since that usually happens only in blowouts. And for three, even though these are position players, they are presumably position players who were selected for their perceived ability to pitch, either because they had strong arms or some kind of pitching background.
But still. There's always been that idea that BABIP theory falls apart the further you get from the major leagues. That you and I would run BABIPs in the .400s or .500s, and that BABIP theory only truly applies to pitchers selected to pitch at the highest level.
This is evidence to the contrary. This is evidence that players who aren't pitchers at all can still run a pretty normal BABIP when given the opportunity.
That's insane. I think that's insane, anyway. I almost want to be wrong, because if it's true that non-pitchers can post a normal BABIP when they're pitching, then my brain is pretty unprepared for the implications.
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Comments
One theory is that position players are probably swinging for the fences against predominately fastballs, generating more flyballs in the process hence lower BABIP..
by EnglishMariner on Aug 3, 2011 9:18 AM EDT reply actions
Which if you consider their obviously lower strikeout numbers, as well as expecting maybe at least a few more flyballs and line drives from swinging for the fences when contact is made, would make it even more remarkable, not less, would it not?
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by otisnixon'sparty on Aug 3, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
What about home run rate?
Higher home run rate generally leads to a lower babip, right? So if the home run rate is higher AND the BABIP is about league average AND it’s not adjusted for era…
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by Chris St. John on Aug 3, 2011 11:02 AM EDT reply actions
Or at least FB%
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by Dan Lewis on Aug 3, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I looked at this
Turns out BABIP doesn’t change very much based on pitcher’s HR/9. However, I would like to see it adjusted for era. League average BABIP in the 70s was around .280.
@stealofhome
by Chris St. John on Aug 3, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Not quite HR rate...
but maybe slugging percentage as a whole. Same BABIP, but more gappers.
by HawkeyeEdward on Aug 3, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Team data may obscure things a tad...
…but I looked at this and there was no relationship, at least from an offensive perspective, between HR and BABIP:
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.
by Bill Petti on Aug 3, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
AAAA players
in general, like in the Maier and Cuddyer examples, the opposition’s benches have emptied. maybe the guys that come in and pound position player pitchers have below-average BABIPs as batters, so the position player pitcher’s batter-BABIP adjusted BABIP (wowzer) is far above average?
i’m thinking this because many guys in slumps only get into games during blowouts. slumping batters have lower-than-average BABIPs generally. bad pitchers make bad hitters look good, so maybe bad pitchers make bad batters achieve league-average BABIPs?
this all said, it would take a lot of hand-cranking to pull out career and at-that-at-bat BABIPs for batters batting against position player pitchers, even if it’s only what, 800-900 PAs?
by bcdcsox on Aug 3, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
I tried to come up with some kind of logical explanation, but my head started to hurt
Thanks a lot Jeff
by Bret Boone's Farm on Aug 3, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
This is nothing new
Voros McCracken made the same observation in his original article about defense-independent pitching years ago. You’ve basically taken one sentence of his path-breaking article and turned it into an article of your own.
by RM on Aug 3, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
McCracken had a sample size of 38 innings, cited no numbers, and immediately moved on without expanding
Perhaps if he had made a bigger deal of his observation, this wouldn’t have happened.
by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 3, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I mentioned it on Twitter
But Voros did an expanded study on 61 years of data in 2006 that he posted here:
http://vorosmccracken.com/?p=34
And I’m still fairly convinced that someone else wrote up an article with conclusions very similar to yours several years ago, perhaps on Baseball Prospectus, but if they did, I can’t find it. I suppose it’s possible that I’m just remembering what Voros did and transferring it to a different context in my memory.
by Mike Fast on Aug 3, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, in that event
whoops! On the other hand, there are more people paying attention now than ever before, so it can’t be a bad thing to re-state previously unknown research.
by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 3, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have no complaint about your article
It was interesting, and the point is worth making again.
I do fault you completely, though, for pointing out a flaw in my memory which I have been unable to resolve.
by Mike Fast on Aug 3, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all for your personal betterment
by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 3, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Might it be heartening that you and Voros were only .002 apart in your BABIP findings?
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Aug 3, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Made a bigger deal...
Voros’ observations were a VERY big deal in the sabermetric community. Bill James wrote about it in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. Michael Lewis wrote about it in Moneyball (and not in passing). The Boston Red Sox hired him.
Your observation about position players is very interesting, however.
by Larry Mahnken on Aug 3, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't mean his BABIP observation
I meant his position player BABIP observation. Obviously DIPS theory is a huge deal.
by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 4, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Question
Has anyone done research on the relationship between BABIP and defense?
It seems to me that the greatest effect on BABIP would be the defense behind the pitcher, not the pitcher himself (although, I too would have guessed that position players would give up a higher babip than regular pitchers).
But most of these position player pitchers can at least throw in the low-80’s, so it’s not like the overall dynamic has changed too terribly much. Even hard contact is subject to the chance of being hit where someone can field it… and the defense isn’t changing, no matter who’s on the mound.
If I were smarter and more motivated, I’d look into this.
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by nw-orange on Aug 3, 2011 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
Well,
It looks like RM answered my question before I hit ‘Post’. Thanks
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by nw-orange on Aug 3, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
One theory...
Is that hitters may be ‘swinging for the fences’ and putting a bit of loft into their swings. This would induce a lot of home runs for sure but also plenty of deep outs and lazy pop fly’s.
by farmer cam on Aug 3, 2011 2:28 PM EDT reply actions
Another
The hitters have not seen the position/pitchers before so they do not know what to expect. That puts them at a temporary disadvantage.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Aug 3, 2011 4:14 PM EDT reply actions
Newness/Weirdness/Novelty Factor
I think what you’re seeing is true performance, but it’s more due to the pitcher being so radically different than the others who came before him (e.g. velocity-wise) that hitters aren’t able to make an adjustment in time.
It’s hard to go from 95 to 75.
There’s a reason why most position players don’t pitch, or aren’t successful, for more than just one inning stretches at random intervals. Give the hitters time to make the adjustment and the results will be different.
There’s also the macho factor where hitters’ egos take over and they end up overswinging rather than waiting for the ball. You see this all the time when travel or select youth baseball players play in a rec league. Kids can kill good pitchers but cant hit the kid who’s throwing 35 MPH lob jobs that barely make it to the plate.
You also see the same phenomenon when it comes to submarine pitchers and fast pitch softball pitchers who go up against baseball players.
Boog would have made that play.
by thepainguy on Aug 3, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions
I think the reason is already obvious, isn't it?
7.34 ERA is pretty awful, they’re giving up tons of runs via horrible walk rate, low K rate and lots of HRs – just not by hits finding inordinately large amounts of holes to drop into.
That’s a lot of success without needing an adjustment, I’m not sure these sorts of things can adequately explain away a near-normal BABIP rate.
by sandalfan on Aug 3, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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