What To Expect From Stephen Strasburg Upon His Return

By Jeff Sullivan - Editor

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Aug 17, 2011 - Hyped to an extreme degree even before he was drafted, a year ago Stephen Strasburg sprinted to the majors and somehow exceeded even the highest of expectations. He threw his fastball 100 miles per hour, and his breaking ball acted like a cartoon character that ran off a cliff and looked down. Strasburg whiffed 14 Pirates in his debut and didn't look back, amassing 92 strikeouts in his 68 innings.

But in August, he encountered elbow problems despite having been treated with so much caution. Exams revealed a torn ligament that would require Tommy John surgery, or ligament replacement. Strasburg had the operation at the beginning of September, and he was expected to be out for a full year. The consensus response: what a shame. What a shame, to see that happen to such a young talent.

Fast forward. It's August 2011, and Strasburg's on the road to recovery. He made his first minor league rehab start a couple weeks ago. He followed that with another on the 12th. Now we get this, from Adam Kilgore:

Full explanation to come, but Davey Johnson [has] a speculative scenario that would have Strasburg pitching for the #Nats 9/2.

Stephen Strasburg could conceivably be back in the majors in a little over two weeks. He would presumably be limited to shorter outings, as the Nationals will want to be careful, but otherwise, all systems would be go. Strasburg has just about completed his recovery from major elbow surgery.

That's awesome, for Strasburg, for Nationals fans, and for baseball as a whole. But there's an important question to be asked: what should we be expecting from Strasburg? He did have a major operation. Now that he's almost back, what should we expect him to be?

I've done some research, and it's all pointed to the following answer:

• Stephen Strasburg

We should expect Stephen Strasburg to be Stephen Strasburg. Yes, he had one ligament in his elbow replaced by another ligament from somewhere else, but outside of that, nothing has changed, and these days the procedure is practically routine. Pitchers return from Tommy John surgery all the time, and they seldom leave much talent on the operating table.

Reports from Strasburg's rehab starts have certainly been encouraging. His last time out, he was consistently reaching 98mph, and touched 99. His velocity sounds like it's fine. His breaking ball sounds like it's fine. His changeup sounds like it's fine. Strasburg's probably got a little rust, as we'd expect him to, but he'll shake that off, and his repertoire is intact.

When he comes back, there's just not much reason to think that Strasburg will be less than what he was before he got hurt. And since, for a lot of pitchers, the replacement ligament is stronger than the original one, Strasburg may be even less of an injury risk now than before. He could still hurt his shoulder, and he could still re-injure his elbow, but it's not like Strasburg's going to be a man of glass.

What we could see is Strasburg maybe dialing things back a little. Or maybe he'll throw fewer breaking balls. He could pitch in a way so as to consciously reduce his injury risk. But that isn't a guarantee, and even if he does this, he should still be exceedingly amazing.

Sometimes Tommy John surgery doesn't work out perfectly. It doesn't have a 100 percent success rate. But it's remarkably close, and with Strasburg almost back, the odds are that the year he's missed will be little more than a delay. Or, for hitters, a respite.

Read More: Stephen Strasburg (P - WAS), Washington Nationals

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