Aug 15, 2011 - Jim Thome just hit his 600th home run.
Here is a list of players with 500 home runs who have not been enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame:
Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield
Here's the same list, but this time without the players who haven't yet been tainted by specific allegations of steroid use:
Ken Griffey, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas
Three players. Griffey hit 630 home runs and Thomas hit 521 home runs. Thome, you know.
In the absence of specific allegations, Griffey's going to sail into the Hall of Fame. Thomas might have to wait a year or three, but he figures to be elected as well.
And Jim Thome? Also, no specific allegations. But he simply isn't spoken about in the same terms as Junior or The Big Hurt.
Griffey won an MVP Award (unanimously) and also finished second, fourth (twice) and fifth in the balloting. He played center field, and won 10 straight Gold Gloves.
Like Thome, Thomas wasn't much with the glove. But he won two MVP Awards and also finished second, third (twice) and fourth.
Thome's never won an MVP Award, or finished second or third. His best finish was fourth, in 2003. He's finished in the top 10 in the balloting four times, and that's probably just about right.*
* Voters are usually overly impressed by sluggers who drive in a lot of runs. But in Thome's case, not so much. Maybe an actual voter can tell you why they've given so little love to Jim Thome over the years, and so much to Ryan Howard. But I can't.
We generally expect our Hall of Famers to have been dominant, MVP-caliber players for at least a few years, and that's just not what Jim Thome's been.
On the other hand, we also expect our Hall of Famers to have been worth a great number of wins. According to FanGraphs, Thome's currently sitting at 71 Wins Above Replacement. There's a great cluster of players in the 70-72 range.
These guys are already in the Hall of Fame: Goose Goslin, Johnny Mize, Duke Snider, Ed Delahanty, Yogi Berra, Willie Stargell, Ozzie Smith, Zack Wheat.
These guys are not already in the Hall of Fame: Graig Nettles, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Andruw Jones, Tim Raines, Joe Torre, Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio.
Just missing the cut (because I'm not rounding up): Edgar Martinez, Lou Boudreau, Billy Williams, Pee Wee Reese, Manny Ramírez, and Alan Trammell. Boudreau, Williams and Reese are in the Hall of Fame. Most observers believe that Ramírez has Hall of Fame numbers; most really intelligent observers believe that Trammell does, too.
I know that's a lot of names, some of which probably don't mean anything to you. The point is that Thome's career, at least according to this particular measure, fits in nicely with plenty of Hall of Famers, or players (Larkin and Biggio, in particular) who will eventually be in the Hall of Fame.
But there's another point, which is that some players with similar contributions are not in the Hall of Fame, and won't be. Nettles, Smith, Evans ... none of them got even a sniff from the voters. Raines hasn't drawn much support, and Torre's fell well short.
But none of those guys hit 600 home runs. Or 500.
My guess is that Thome won't be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA, at least not early on. Eventually, though, if his reputation remains untainted by scandal, he will get in somehow.
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Comments
If you vote No/Borderline you are a fool
shots fired
Do these effectively hide my thunder?
by splitty on Aug 15, 2011 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 10 recs
As well as a tool!
/salvo
"The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't."
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by TWinSS on Aug 16, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
By the logic that Hall of Fame voters want good defense before voting someone into the Hall, Jeter won’t get in right away either, right?
No? You mean it depends entirely on where you played?
Jim Thome is a first ballot guy and it shouldn’t be close. It’s a testament to how great a game baseball is that it still exists, let alone is so popular, when you look at how screwed up some of the institutions that run baseball allow it to become. Thanks for nothing, ESPN.
Il faut d'abord durer.
by CU Adam on Aug 15, 2011 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 7 recs
Is this even a question?
600 Home Runs(not that the round number matters, but the 8th all time does), career .400 OBP, .950 OPS, career .156 OPS+. No brainer.
by ThatGuy22 on Aug 15, 2011 9:41 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Killebrew was 6th all-time in HRs when he retired… Eddie Matthews and Duke Snider were also pretty high up on the list when they retired. All of them had to wait a number of years before the BBWAA voted them in.
by erosen on Aug 17, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
The BBWAA was a lot dumber then.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 18, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll get in....
…because as much as voters want to make a statement about suspected (or proven) PED users, they’ll want to make a statement about guys who “played the right way.” Might take him 2-3 years, but he’ll get in with a lot of puffery and kudos that he probably doesn’t deserve. (He deserves getting in, but let’s face it, we don’t know about him any more than we know about Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell….except that writers like Thome as a person).
by jdscott on Aug 15, 2011 10:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
thome ought to be a first ballot.
also, it would be outrageous if the big hurt had to wait ‘a year or three’.
by craigws on Aug 15, 2011 10:53 PM EDT reply actions
Well duh
"Its like when i’m right…i’m right… and when i’m wrong…i could have been right..so i’m still right cause i could have been wrong"-Chevy Clarke's Twitter
by ryanfea on Aug 15, 2011 11:11 PM EDT reply actions
As was pointed out on LetsGoTribe … it is inconceivable that if a Yankee hit 600 HR, under any circumstances, that anyone would dare say he doesn’t belong in the Hall.
by Jay on Aug 16, 2011 12:31 AM EDT reply actions
Except, of course.....
Alex Rodriguez, who might wind up with 700 and still not get in for a very long time.
by jdscott on Aug 16, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
He cheated...
so it really doesn’t apply. Let’s see the first non-cheater to get to 600… oh, that’s right… guys don’t normally get to 600 without cheating. So, let’s not punish the ones who accomplish such an amazing feat without cheating.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 18, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Bias?
Thome is going to be elected to the HOF. As for the “NY bias” that fans like to parade around, there has been several studies on HOF voting, and percentage wise there is a higher precentage of fringy, questionable HOFers who are not from NY, be they named Tony Perez, Andre Dawson, Bruce Sutter, etc.
I disagree with Rob here that the BBWAA won’t elect Thome. He may not go in on the first ballot, but he won’t have to wait more than two or three tries. He’s an easy yes.
by LordD99 on Aug 17, 2011 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it will depend on who still is on the ballot then...
and how many idiot voters have croaked by then. There are still many voters who just won’t fill their ballot no matter how many credible candidates there are. That will cost Thome some votes, depending on others who retire around the same time.
We’ll see about that NY Yankee bias when Bernie Williams’ name appears on the ballot this winter.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 18, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thome's going to get voted in. 600 home runs is a big shiny number. And without steroids or other controversies standing in his way, Thome ought to sail in.
"Perhaps the worst comment I've ever seen on LL." - sanford_and_son.
by Ride the Apocalypse on Aug 16, 2011 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
* Voters are usually overly impressed by sluggers who drive in a lot of runs. But in Thome’s case, not so much. Maybe an actual voter can tell you why they’ve given so little love to Jim Thome over the years, and so much to Ryan Howard. But I can’t.
A lot of it’s probably because Thome really hasn’t driven in a lot of runs, at least not to the level where the average voter would notice. Surprisingly to me, Thome’s only finished in the league’s top ten in RBIs three times, topping out at third in 2003—which is, not coincidentally, the year he had his best MVP finish. (Howard, on the other hand, is working on his fourth RBI title, and has two other years in the top four.)
by Daniel Wind on Aug 16, 2011 1:17 AM EDT reply actions
Great point, Daniel.
I should have dug a little deeper and noticed that, in which case I like to think I would have made the exact point you have. Thanks.
by Rob Neyer on Aug 16, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
In Thome's Defense
with respect to RBI, a lot of the time there weren’t a lot of runners to drive in. He often batted behind the likes of Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, David Justice and Roberto Alomar. Also, being less flashy than some of those guys, he perhaps isn’t as famous and his exploits less well-known (unfortunately).
I think the writers will be able to overlook that, particularly if there are no other obvious candidates who become eligible when he eventually does.
5th on the all-time HR list, as far as I’m concerned.
by jjackflash on Aug 16, 2011 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wait.
Thome hasn’t driven in a lot of runs?
By the end of this season, he should be 25th on the all-time RBI list. Every eligible player above him is in the Hall.
He is, IMO, a first-ballot HoFer.
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by Al Yellon on Aug 16, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Without a doubt
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Easy Ed on Aug 16, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Walks cost RBI's
If Thome walked 10% less, he would probably have a few moer RBI’s and a lower OBP. Also, I’d really like to see the average OBP of the guys that have hit in front of Thome. Hard to knock in a guy who is already in the dugout.
by Rudemeister on Aug 16, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
He sails in
by Dale Sams on Aug 16, 2011 9:46 AM EDT reply actions
If he doesn't get in, I'mma be all like
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by Chris Haines on Aug 16, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The look on the face of the on-deck hitter is classic
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Easy Ed on Aug 16, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If Thome is kept out of the Hall, it will prove far less about his playing days then it does about how small-minded and vindictive baseball writers are.
He and Baggie need to be in there.
by JulioBernazard on Aug 16, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If he isn't elected into the hall of fame, it would be a travesty.
by joof on Aug 16, 2011 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
VOTE FOR JI
JIM THOME
BECAUSE HE IS TOO POLITE TO ASK FOR HIMSELF
#TheDugout
I'm white and I don't dance but that doesn't mean I have all the answers.
by smk73 on Aug 16, 2011 10:55 AM EDT reply actions
I think you’re way off here, Rob. Thome will go in first ballot. And he deserves it. He’s not quite as good as Frank Thomas, actually, but he’ll go in more easily than Thomas despite that fact.
by Rujasu on Aug 16, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
Statistically outstanding, consistent team player, still producing at age 40...
Wait, what more is anyone asking from him?
by wolfpack2454 on Aug 16, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
okay, so we are going to go WAR here? Lets take Derek Jeter for example. Because he got 3,000 hits, a lot of people are saying he is a first ballot, even more so than Thome. his WAR is 70.5 compared to Thome’s 71.1. He also has 900 plate appearances. I am fine with this logic (at least somewhat though I don’t totally agree) if Neyer also believes that Jeter is not a first ballot.
And the mvp vote is far from a subjective measurement. In a year where Thome had 52 HRs, a 1.122 OPS, an 8.1 WAR, and 122 walks, the first place vote getter was a SS with a 5.2 WAR. How the heck did people seriously vote Torii Hunter and Garrett Anderson over Thome. maybe at the time there was a reason but in hindsight it was pretty darn stupid.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
by bross09 on Aug 16, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
First Ballot, No Question
Rob, you are way off base. You are forgetting Thome’s Clubhouse Guyness. He is beloved by sportswriters. He did it THE RIGHT WAY. And he hit 600 bombs. You’re problem is you see Bagwell getting stopped at the door and think there’s no way Thome’s getting in. But Bags didn’t get 3000 hits or even 500 home runs. I mean, how can you MUSCLES (wink, wink) like Bags and not even hit 500 home runs? You are blinded by your fealty to meaningless numbers (WAR, what is it good for? Nothin! Say it again!) and lack of a moral compass. Next you’ll be suggesting Bonds and Clemons should get it—HA!
by Jay Essman on Aug 16, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks for the comment...
But are all reading what I wrote? I don’t think I suggested that Thome won’t make it. I certainly didn’t write that “there’s no way Thome’s getting in.”
I do think he might have to wait a while, though. Like a lot of other great candidates have been made to wait.
by Rob Neyer on Aug 16, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yep...he'll have to wait...5 years.
Fire Jim Hendry. Injuries aren't the problem.
by Easy Ed on Aug 16, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right that Thome doesn’t have the same media hype of Jeter, but he’s still recognized for being an awesome player, and has been well-liked everywhere he’s gone. There may not be as much buzz surrounding him as there will be with Jeter, but that’s Jeter. I don’t think many writers are going to say, “No, Jim Thome is not a Hall of Famer.” In fact, I think the same factors that worked against Bagwell will help Thome, because while Bagwell is (very questionably) suspected of steroids, Thome is one of the few power hitters widely believed to be completely disconnected from PED’s. That will give him some bonus points, as will the fact that nearly everyone likes Jim Thome and considers him a class act.
Oh, and he’s put up gaudy numbers. Great WAR, but also huge HR totals, tons of RBI and he’s not done yet. Even assuming he retires at season’s end he’ll have such great numbers that everyone will recognize him. He won’t have to wait at all. First ballot with ease.
by Rujasu on Aug 16, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Word Up Thome
WordUpThome: HEY THIS IS JI
WordUpThome: JIM THOME
by Brendl on Aug 16, 2011 5:58 PM EDT reply actions
Reggie Jackson was elected with 93% of the votes his first year eligible. Thome has a better career batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Thome has more runs scored and home runs. Jackson has only 40 more RBI’s in over 1000 more plate appearences.
by Geoffrey Feldman O'Brien on Aug 16, 2011 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Jackson was helped by his postseason feats
And playing in more high-profile cities and postseasons. When it comes to the writers voting, it is never just about numbers. If it was, Catfish Hunter wouldn’t have been voted in on his third try, while Bert Blyleven had to wait until his 14th.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 16, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a proper comparison
Comparing numbers across two different playing generations is pointless. Reggie played during a depressed hitting time, while Thome played in one of the great hitting times. Jackson’s BA would have been much higher and he’d easily have eclipsed 600 HRs, and may have even approached 700 HRs, if his career ran from 1991 to 2011. His style of hitting was made for today’s game.
No matter, since it’s a small quibble as I’m firmy in the pro-Thome camp. Where he beats Jackson is walks on OBP, which is critical. He should be elected on the first ballot, but I suspect it might take two or three tries. He’s more than deserving.
by LordD99 on Aug 17, 2011 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Jackson was the definition of famous...
even if sometimes was infamous. Thome is far from famous, especially outside of sports circles.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Aug 18, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
First Ballot
No question. Six hundred without PEDs was Aaron, Ruth, Mays for so long. Five hundred was a magical number. Six hundred was legendary. Has it been tainted? Yes. In Thome’s case, it makes the difference between a first ballot guy and a few years of build-up. I wouldn’t expect 90% of ballots, but I think he is pretty secure. He’s a good guy with an incredibly gaudy statistic on his resume, isn’t that exactly what hall voters like?
by kg422 on Aug 16, 2011 8:45 PM EDT reply actions
Mize Thome Greenburg
I’d slot Thome just ahead — probably a dead heat — of Hank Greenburg and just behind Johnny Mize …this easily puts him in the top ten firstbasemen of all time; he’s a slam dunk for th HOF
He isn’t as good a hitter — overall — as Thomas, but better than Murray.
And he’s aged well.
by Blake Walker on Aug 17, 2011 2:00 AM EDT reply actions
Rob - Your Intuition Has Misfired
1. The comparisons to Jeter are completely irrelevant. Fielding or not, Jeter is widely recognized as an historically top-tier shortstop, even without his postseason and persona issues included. I’m not a Jeter groupie, but he is a no-brainer first ballot.
2. I agree Thome will get in more easily than Rob says. Not sure it will be a slam dunk first ballot, but probably first ballot, at most second or third.
3. Is there any indication Thome retires soon? He’s 40 and hitting well. What’s to keep him from finishing with 640 HRs and another 100 RBIs? That puts him #6 all time (Assuming ARod stays ahead of him). Even lacking star-power and MVP votes, I find it totally inconceivable that the BBWAA would make a drug-free #6 wait.
by dans489 on Aug 17, 2011 11:15 AM EDT reply actions
The "nth ballot" issue is a logistical one
In a vacuum, Thome would be an easy pick, but there are a ton of great candidates becoming eligible in the next five years. The BBWAA has shown that it only likes to induct 2 or 3 players a year. The fact that some of those great candidates may not get inducted right away because of PED issues will only serve to clog the ballots more.
As for retirement, his production is still solid when he’s in the lineup, but Thome has had problems staying healthy.
by DavidRF on Aug 17, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
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