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By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor
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Jul 21, 2011 - Adam Dunn's got a .158 batting average, and yes you read that correctly. Just to reach the Mendoza Line, Dunn would have to collect 15 hits in his next 15 at-bats ... and he's got only 15 hits in his last 125 at-bats.
All of which, as you might imagine, is not a great deal of fun for him (let alone all the White Sox fans who rejoiced when Dunn signed a $56 million contract last winter). What's on Dunn's mind? Retirement. Jeff Passan:
Adam Dunn is talking about quitting. He’s talking about it like he’s been thinking about it, like it’s always a possibility, a failsafe if this misery continues. And then he’s talking about it like the chances of him doing it are infinitesimal because he adores baseball, even as it corrodes his sense of self. And then he’s talking about it like he’s not sure what he thinks, which tends to happen when a 31-year-old with 363 career home runs suddenly forgets how to hit a baseball.
"If I’m not having fun anymore, I’ll go home," Dunn told Yahoo! Sports. "Flat out. I’ll go home. I mean that. Swear to goodness. I’ll. Go. Home. I enjoy playing. Even though I suck. Or have been sucking. I enjoy playing the game. Love it. But as soon as I lose that, I’m gone, dude. It’s true.
Okay, but here's a List of Important Reasons Why Adam Dunn Flat Out Isn't Going Home:
1. He's still got about $45 million coming to him.
2. He almost certainly couldn't keep keep hitting .168, even if he wanted to (which he does not).
3. Same interview, Dunn says about quitting, ""It’s not going to happen. Zero chance. Zero. You can’t get this competition anywhere else, dude. I don’t care where you look. Nowhere else. It’s one-on-one, dude."
Which seems fairly definitive. Granted, if Dunn finishes this season with a sub-.200 batting average, then does it again next spring and summer ... Well, then you might see something crazy happen. He might quit, or the White Sox might quit on him. But that's a lot of money, and Dunn's hit a lot of home runs over the years.
But while Dunn might well finish this season under .200, today that's not exactly a mark of truly ill distinction. Since 1920, only 15 players have finished with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and posted a sub-.200 batting average. But would you believe that two of them did it just last year?
Carlos Peña batted .196 last year ... and was rewarded with a $10 million contract. Mark Reynolds batted .198 last year ... and has since been installed as the Orioles' every-day third baseman. Oh, and here's the best part of the story ... both Peña and Reynolds, with batting averages in the .220s this season, rank among their teams' best hitters.
Reports of Adam Dunn's demise? We'll check in again next summer. For now, they have been greatly exaggerated.
Read More: Adam Dunn (DH - CWS), Chicago White Sox
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6 comments
National Baseball Editor
Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio
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Comments
Seems like there's a big difference between Pena / Reynolds and Dunn.
Just saying, Carlos Pena’s fWAR last year was 1.0. Mark Reynolds’s was 2.3. fWAR isn’t a perfect stat, but Adam Dunn’s this year is -1.6. Hitting below the Mendoza is one thing, but that’s a 4 win difference between Reynolds in ‘10 and Dunn in ’11. That’s roughly the exquivalent of BJ Upton’s season last year, or Carlos Beltran’s season (so far) this year.
I guess it’s just more fuel to the fire that batting average isn’t the best metric to determine player value, even between similar types of player.
Twitter: @bgrosnick
Writer at RotoHardball
by Bryan Grosnick on Jul 21, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
"Did America quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"
“Quiet, he’s on a roll.”
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, but isn't a cucumber that small called a gherkin?"
by jbg2772 on Jul 21, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions
Dunn just hasn’t adjusted to being the DH yet. He should be at 1st base when in the lineup, not left field like he was in Cincinnati. Of course, he won’t as long as Konerko is there. Give him time, that entire team in Chicago is underpeforming in what I consider to be the second-weakest division in baseball most years.
http://www.FromThisSeat.com
by jwmann2 on Jul 21, 2011 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
Oh yeah, and why can’t this guy seem to take care of himself? Look at pictures of him when he was a rookie in Cincinnati in 2001. He has picked up tons of bad weight. Maybe the answer would be hitting the weights and treadmill. Get yourself built up like Frank Thomas.
by jwmann2 on Jul 21, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions
I’m not saying he’s done, but he does have an OPS+ of 63. His demise isn’t exaggerated at all. Of course, he’ll bounce back to a certain degree.
Folksy literate type.
by birdman on Jul 22, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
Birdman, most people do not bounce back even “to a certain degree” from a demise. So, yes reports would be exaggerated if there was a bounce back.
by Satan1001 on Jul 22, 2011 5:43 PM EDT reply actions
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