Derek Jeter And 3,000 Hits: What Usually Happens After The Milestone?

By Grant Brisbee - Editor

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Jul 10, 2011 - Derek Jeter is in the 3,000-hit club, though it's possible that his days of being a great -- or even above-average -- player are over. This is not a new combination. Getting 3,000 hits and then fading away is like the peanut butter and jelly of great players. Though because one of the things in this analogy isn't exactly desirable, the flavor of jelly would have to be something nasty. Peanut butter and turnip jelly, then. But several members of the 3,000-hit club were winding down their careers when they reached the milestone.

It's an obvious correlation -- you get to 3,000 hits by playing for a long time, and playing for a long time usually means that you get old. Science! But of the 27 hitters who made the club before Jeter, there were a few of them who weren't necessarily on their way out. Here's a look at 3,000-hit club, grouped by how they did in the seasons after they joined the club:

In the club, out of the game

Al Kaline, Wade Boggs, Rafael Palmeiro, Lou Brock, Rod Carew, and Craig Biggio all got their 3,000th hit in their final season. Kaline finished with 3,007 hits in his age-39 season, finishing the year with a .262/.337/.389 line. Boggs had a .377 on-base percentage in his last season, so if he didn't get his final ten hits, he probably could have stayed around for a year as a rich man's Dave Magadan.

And though Roberto Clemente is technically a member of this group, that's only because of his untimely death. In his age-37 season, Clemente hit .312/.356/.479 to finish with exactly 3,000 hits. If Jon Matlack doesn't hang a first-inning curve in this game, Clemente might not be in the club at all.

On their way out

These players didn't play more than a season or two after their 3,000th hit, and they weren't especially productive. For the remainder of the article, all of the stats are for the seasons after the 3,000 hit milestone was reached:

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Rickey Henderson	102	251	47	55	7	1	7	21	49	63	.219	.356	.339	86	Two	43

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Eddie Murray	207	733	82	184	28	1	25	97	76	113	.251	.316	.394	80	Two	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
George Brett	145	560	69	149	31	3	19	75	39	67	.266	.312	.434	94	One	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Cal Ripken	128	477	43	114	16	0	14	68	26	63	.239	.276	.361	70	One	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Nap Lajoie	242	916	73	242	38	9	3	96	25	42	.264	.288	.335	90	Two	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Paul Molitor	261	1040	138	305	61	9	14	158	90	114	.293	.343	.410	95	Two	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Robin Yount	127	454	62	117	25	3	8	51	44	93	.258	.326	.379	90	One	36

 

Yount was the youngest of the group, and that's because he was in the majors when he was 18, though a lot of those Woodland Hills kids probably lied about their age to get a bigger bonus.

Molitor is here only because he didn't fit well anywhere else, but while he hit .305/.351/.435 in his penultimate season, that was only good for a 104 OPS+ in the hitter-friendly 1987 season. And, like Eddie Murray, he got his 3,000th in the middle of a really productive season.

Could still hit, couldn't stay on the field

I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Gwynn could hit .300 today, even considering his weight gain and health problems

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Tony Gwynn	107	229	22	74	21	1	2	34	19	13	.323	.373	.450	117	Two	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Paul Waner	175	368	46	110	20	1	1	43	65	17	.299	.406	.367	122	Three	39

 

 

Put together a couple of nice seasons, at least

All of these players had at least one or  two more seasons in which they were still better than most of their peers.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Willie Mays	290	870	141	218	45	6	32	108	199	218	.251	.391	.426	133	Three	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Eddie Collins	249	643	120	216	47	5	2	84	124	21	.336	.445	.434	129	Five	38

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Carl Yastrzemski	446	1541	176	410	81	3	48	231	206	145	.266	.352	.416	107	Four	39

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Tris Speaker	355	1253	195	386	117	16	12	189	159	28	.308	.389	.456	119	Three	37

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Honus Wagner	353	1228	128	340	54	27	7	141	97	117	.277	.336	.382	118	Three	40

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Cap Anson	344	1300	226	413	58	11	7	256	164	60	.318	.398	.395	104	Two	42

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Stan Musial	613	1814	223	514	80	10	77	317	252	183	.283	.369	.466	118	Five	37

 

Cap Anson was 42, but that's only if you include his National Association numbers, which Baseball Reference does. If you exclude those hits, which Major League Baseball does, he was 45, which would make him the oldest player to get his 3,000th hit.

Freaks

These players probably weren't human.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Hank Aaron	722	2412	368	661	84	6	163	455	375	282	.274	.370	.517	145	Six	36

 

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Ty Cobb	865	3198	620	1136	228	61	36	563	398	98	.355	.430	.498	141	Seven	34

 

 

 

 

Aaron had his arguably his best season the year after his 3,000th hit, putting up a .327/.410/.669 line with 47 home runs, and Cobb hit .401 in the season following his milestone. If they were using a performance-enhancing substance, it was probably motor oil, as they were robots and/or cyborgs, and you know how they love drinking motor oil.

 

Pete Rose

This group includes Pete Rose.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	Seasons after 3,000	Age at 3,000
Pete Rose	1057	3857	508	1092	174	24	10	360	481	244	.283	.365	.348	98	Eight	37

 

And what a weird group that is. He led the National League in doubles the year he passed 3,000 hits, and led the NL in on-base percentage the following year. He obviously had something left. But after hitting .325 as a 40-year-old, the rest of his career was a grind towards 4,192. He was essentially Juan Pierre without the speed, for better and for worse.

What does this mean for Jeter? Absolutely nothing, other than as a reminder that the Yankees shortstop is one of the youngest players to reach the milestone. All of these players have such disparate histories and skill sets, it's pretty useless to compare them. The only common thread is that they were all great, and they are all in (or will be in) the Hall of Fame.

Uh, sorry, Rafael. Didn't see you there. Good luck with all that. And, oh. Pete. You just keep holding a good thought.

Though it's likely that the declining production from Jeter is a harbinger of doom, it's not a given. More than a few Hall-of-Famers maintained their production for some of the seasons that followed their entry into the 3,000-hit club. And with Jeter signed through 2013 (with a player option for 2014!), he'll have every opportunity to find out.

Read More: Craig Biggio (2B - HOU), Derek Jeter (SS - NYY), Rafael Palmeiro (1B - BAL), New York Yankees

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