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By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor
Seven games out of first place just a couple of weeks ago, the Tigers have taken advantage of the Indians' slump and now look like the best team in the American League Central.
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Jun 8, 2011 - Wednesday afternoon, the Cleveland Indians dropped a 3-2 decision to the Minnesota Twins, in 10 innings.
The Indians' record stood at 30-15 on the 24th of May; that morning they held a seven-game lead over the second-place Detroit Tigers.
My, how things can change in just a couple of weeks. Since then, the Indians have lost 11 of 15 while the Tigers have won nine of 14; if Detroit beats Texas Wednesday night, they'll trail the Indians by just half a game in the American League Central standings.
And win or lose tonight -- winning's a tall order, with Alexi Ogando on the hill for the Rangers -- the Tigers have quite suddenly become the real favorites in the Central. According to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report, the Tigers now have something like a 60-percent chance of winning the division, with the Indians and White Sox well behind.
Reasons for optimism about the Tigers, even aside from the numbers above?
Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez anchor a solid hitting attack. It's not at all assured that Jhonny Peralta and Brennan Boesch will continue their potent hitting, but as they fall off some other Tigers are likely to improve. Especially Brandon Inge and whoever's playing second base (with the Tigers, you never know who that might be).
With Phil Coke returning to the Tigers' rotation tonight, they've once more got an intact Opening Day rotation, which features Justin Verlander but also includes four others who should be decent, at least. The one real question mark is Brady Penny, who's earned his 4.76 ERA with too many walks and not enough strikeouts.
If Penny should prove problematic or someone should get hurt, the Tigers do have a couple of viable options in the minors. Top prospect Jacob Turner has thrived this season in Class AA, and might be ready for a supporting role in the majors this summer. Andy Oliver struggled in his seven MLB starts -- five last season, two this season -- but his stuff and his triple-A performance suggests that he just needs more time and opportunity.
The Tigers, it should be said, are not deep in hitters. A few injuries over the next few months could cause real problems, because the bench is unimpressive and there's little help in the minors.
But all things considered, the bench and the minors might be moot. Based purely on talent, the Detroit Tigers are the best team in the American League Central and they're now the team to beat.
To read much, much more about the Tigers, please visit Bless You Boys.
Read More: Detroit Tigers
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National Baseball Editor
Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio
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Comments
I agree that Detroit's now more threatening than the Indians,
But how does this article not mention the tear that the Sox have been on lately? I know they don’t factor into the playoff odds very well (just like the Tigers didn’t 3 weeks ago), but if I were a Tigers fan I’d start to hope the Sox don’t start nipping at their heels. After all, the first couple months of the season they were NOT playing to their potential, now it seems like they might be. Add a regular Dunn and a decent Rios and, well, they’d be right there with the Tigers soon.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Jun 8, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions
Recent history?
The Tigers just took two of three in New Comisky, and have beaten the White Sox five of six for the season. But, sure, we can (should?) all agree that the White Sox are slipping past the sliding Indans as well.
It should be noted that Ozzie did have another hard to follow Twitter meltdown today.
by bdjeff42 on Jun 8, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
While the Tigers have been beating the WSox nicely so far this season,
I don’t think their lineup is a lot better than Chicago’s. A couple of those games really could’ve gone either way, and besides Verlander, I wouldn’t say that there’s anyone Detroit has that consistently makes the Tigers better than the Sox. Actually I think the matchup between those two teams is a lot closer than the series so far this season would suggest.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Jun 8, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Tigers would have lost that series had it not been for a Peavy injury and a failed double play
One good innning won the Tigers the game. That is baseball, but don’t act like the Tigers are superior to the White Sox. Roster wise, most would agree the White Sox players have better track records.
by 815Sox on Jun 8, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
second thought
The problem I have with ScottyPods thoughts is that I see dunn more geared for a National league team then to play a major part on an American league team. Yes he is having a bad year and you could have seen this coming prior to signing with the White Sox for during his carrier his batting average has been always around .250 with around 150 plus strike outs per year. Besides this he strikes me as a player who lacks any speed and is a poor fielder as well. He kind of reminds me of a player that Detroit had back in the nintys named Cecil Fielder. Do not get me wrong he may still finish this year with 30 to 40 home runs but I would not hold my breath for it to happen. As for Rios is concern I could
never understand why the Sox traded for him to start. If you look at his past 3 to 4 years he grades out as average at best and is also a below average centerfielder as well.
Next you could say that that as a team that the Sox were not playing up to there potential by a few of there players as well, but you could look at Detroit as a team and say the same. plus there third baseman , and starting right fielder are also on the D/L list but they do not have a true second baseman as well. Detroits turn around started when Martinez came of the D/L list and there pitching remained sound so to speak,
I am sorry to say that Detroits potential has a higher ceiling then the Sox have because they also have help from the minor league system as well so to feel the voids when they lose a player to injurys as well. One last thought they may also be getting back there starting second baseman by months end as well as they make a trade or two by July 31st.
What also does hurt the Sox as a team was that they over valued there bullpen and let go to many key players to free agency. Cain was a good pick up but not enough to cover for there losses.
By the way what is the Sox record over the past 30 or so games? If you look up Detroits record it is if I remember corectly the best in the major league…………..
by Joseph Ciappara on Jun 8, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Asking a question
Call me an idiot if you like but just asking:
When the Red Sox lose 10 of 12 to start the year, they were still the favorite to win their division.
So why are the Indians not granted that same benefit of the doubt when they go into a slump?
by cmruready on Jun 8, 2011 3:56 PM EDT reply actions
Because the Indians are not the Red Sox
The Red Sox are filled with talented players with long track records. The Indians are not, sure the tribe has some talent, but many of the players on the team were over-performing. Especially the starting pitching, most do not think the surprise performance of the Indians starting pitching will last and it looks like they are starting to fall apart now.
Cleveland fans should still be happy. A third place finish for them at the end of the season will be very good.
by 815Sox on Jun 8, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, but...
last year’s Padres did not have a roster filled of players with track records and they won 90 games. I get the feeling many don’t believe the Indians can win 90, but I think they can. Is that a better comparison?
by cmruready on Jun 8, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
TWO WORDS
PITCHING AND FIELDING
by Joseph Ciappara on Jun 8, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
meaning?
that the Padres had WAY better pitching and fielding? Looks more like a wash to me. Just like it would be a wash if the Indians slump had not occured until September like the Pads. Maybe it is just the timing of the losing, I suppose.
by cmruready on Jun 8, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
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