Al Yellon
Editor
It's Gotta Be The Hair - May 15
Grant Brisbee
Editor
Tarasco Sauce - May 16
Jeff Sullivan
Editor
Mission Accomplished - May 16
Rob Neyer
National Baseball Editor
Baseball is Unpredictable - May 12
Dan Moore
Contributor
Joey Votto And The Twilight Of The Giant First Basemen - Apr 14
Jason Brannon
Hot Corner Scribe
Len Kasper Has Been Over Into The Future... - May 15
Jim Baker
Contributor
eBay Item Of The Day - May 15
Marc Normandin
Contributor
The Royals And Pitcher Development - May 15
Wendy Thurm
Contributor
On Being Young And Brash In The Social Media Age - May 12
May 2, 2011 - Last Thursday night, well into a monotonous blowout, Cubs broadcaster Len Kasper -- one of the best in the business, by the way -- said a couple of things that got my various juices flowing more quickly than usual.
First, he gave a pretty amazing shout-out to this Hot Corner item.
Second -- and I'm definitely paraphrasing here -- he said something like this: "You know, right now you can make a pretty good case that Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the major leagues."
Jose Bautista? Who is 30 years old, and has exactly one great (or even good) season in his career ledger?
On the face of it, the notion seems preposterous (or might have, a month ago). Historically, great hitters have almost always been easily identifiable by their middle 20s, if not earlier. The only recent counter-example is probably Luis Gonzalez, whose first big season came at 31.
But Gonzalez and Bautista are hardly comparable. Before that first big season, Gonzalez had a career 108 OPS+; he was an above-average hitter throughout his 20s. Before Bautista's first big season, he had a career 91 OPS+; he was a below-average hitter. In the major leagues, anyway.
Was Bautista's big 2010 a fluke, though? Late in the 2009 season, Bautista changed his swing ... and had a big September. He's having a HUGE 2011. We've got eight months of data, spread over three seasons, that tells us Bautista is simply not the same hitter he used to be.
The best in the majors, though?
First, let's identify the candidates...
There aren't many. Albert Pujols, obviously. And looking at 2009, 2010 and 2011, I've come up with only two others: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto.
All four of these players rank atop any leader boards you care to make, when considered purely hitting performance from September 2009 through yesterday. Granted, that does seem to skew the results in favor of Bautista, since of course that's when he began to hit like a Hall of Famer. But again, that's also when the adjustments he made seem to have begun paying off. And in those selected eight months, it's been these four who have done the most damage.
Because I'm looking at months, I'm not able to look at park-adjusted numbers. So we'll start by looking at the big two, on-base percentage and slugging average, for each of the four over these last eight baseball months ...
Bautista: .392/.631
Cabrera: .420/.600
Pujols: .406/.578
Votto: .443/.613
Those are crude tools, of course. So is OPS, which is why I didn't bother to list those. One thing we know is that on-base percentage is more important than slugging percentage; the degree depends on the environment. But if you're going to combine OBP and Slugging, you get closer to the truth if you weight OBP more heavily, and in today's context, multiplying OBP by 1.8 isn't far off. Here are the "adjusted" OPS's for the quartet ...
Bautista: 1336
Cabrera:1355
Pujols: 1309
Votto: 1411
What about the ballparks? Busch Stadium is a tough place for hitters, and especially for right-handed power hitters (like Pujols). The Rogers Center is a good place for right-handed power hitters (like Bautista). Detroit's Comerica Park, though it has the reputation of a pitcher's park, has actually played as a hitter's park these last few seasons. And Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark is a good place for power hitters (like Votto).
So Pujols is the only one of these guys who's probably hurt by his home ballpark. He's also hurt, in this space, by his subpar April performance, especially with Bautista, Cabrera and Votto all off to brilliant starts to the season.
The relevant factors that I haven't considered yet? There are dozens, with quality of competition and luck ranking near the top. If you make me choose one of these hitters for one game, I'm probably choosing Miguel Cabrera.
But is Bautista a legitimate part of this conversation? I believe that he is.
8 comments
Mickey Hatcher, Angels Hitting Coach, Relieved Of Duties
Vance Worley Has 'Soreness', Will Miss Wednesday Start
Justin Morneau Will Be Activated From DL Wednesday
Manny Ramirez Rehab Assignment Will Start Saturday In Albuquerque
Jon Jay Heading To Disabled List; Shane Robinson Recalled
Troy Tulowitzki Day-To-Day With Deep Leg Bruise
Matt Kemp Goes On 15-Day DL With Sore Hamstring
Jeff Niemann Likely Missing 'A Few Months' With Leg Injury
VIDEO: Bryce Harper's First Career Home Run
Torii Hunter Placed On Restricted List Following Son's Arrest
More News »
Comments
It’s nice to see you delve into something a little more long-form once in a while, Rob.
I voted (predictably) for Pujols, because the consistency makes him the “safest” bet for his perfromance being at a sustainable level, but my suspicion is that Votto will keep himself in the discussion for at least a couple more years.
"That’s the sort of pitch that Lincecum throws several times a game — the sort of pitch that made Satchel Paige say: 'I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain’t been seen by this generation.' Lincecum threw 10 or 15 generation pitches on Thursday." -Joe Posnanski
Et tu, Ribe?
by Solidarity on May 2, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
i Think he is the Best Earthly Hitter for this moment
by Daily News on May 2, 2011 4:43 PM EDT reply actions
at this very moment he is mlb's best hitter
don’t see it lasting too long though.
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on May 2, 2011 10:14 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think the ballpark matters too much here
Bautista hits a LOT of no-doubters
by Mike Friesen on May 3, 2011 6:04 PM EDT reply actions
that doesn't justify the ones that go right over the wall
which is why ballparks matter
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on May 3, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There are just too many things left out of this article
No way can you judge the best batter on only On Base and Slugging
Strikeout percentage and batting average, especially when looking at the type of hitters you are, are what differentiate Bautista(20.4%, .260 last season) from the absolutely exceptional(Pujols- 12.9%, .312, Votto-22.9, .324, Cabrera17.3, .328).
Why you did not look at any of the all inclusive metrics like wOBA or wRC+ either is beyond me.
It was a good idea but I feel you selected bias statistics to shelter Bautista’s deficiencies when comparing him to average and power hitters instead of just power.
by Eugene Brown on May 4, 2011 1:54 AM EDT reply actions
Agreed. Why focus on what the batters actually produced when he could focus on irrelevant breakdowns?
by remmycool on May 4, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Len Kasper's comment . . .
. . . was that Bautista is “right now” the best hitter in baseball. And there’s no doubt he is, especially now 10 games or so later. Last year he wasn’t, but things have changed. Last year he saw a lot more pitches in the strike zone (around 50% to start the season, which slowly declined until September when the rate was down to about 35%). He hit very well, and got better as the season went on. But so far this year, he’s been ridiculous. He’s still seeing fewer pitches in the zone than anybody else, around 34%, but is nevertheless driving balls out at a greater rate than anybody else. He’s walking more, striking out hardly at all, has incredible plate coverage, and a seeming ability to foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something he can crush. I don’t know how long this will last, but I doubt he’ll have 2 quite ordinary months like he did last year. Maybe pitchers will just stop throwing him any strikes at all, but I doubt it. Everything I hear about him from the Toronto media indicates a relentless work ethic, diligent preparation for every game, and burgeoning confidence. He’s quite a different hitter from last season. A better hitter, by far.
by ShipwreckTheory on May 18, 2011 12:30 AM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed