Should Yankees Replace Jorge Posada With Jesus Montero?

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By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor

DETROIT, MI - MAY 05: Jorge Posada #20 of the New York Yankees looks on while playing the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on May 5, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 6-3. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

May 10, 2011 - Fact: Jorge Posada, the New York Yankees' primary DH, is batting .152/.257/.354 this season.

Fact: Jesus Montero, currently toiling in Scranton, is batting .337/.352/.416 this season.

Question: Should the Yankees give up on Posada and give his plate appearances to Montero?

It's About the Money's Chip Buck considers this question in great detail and ...

In conclusion, given Posada's solid chances of seeing his performance improve in the coming weeks, along with Montero's need for a little more development time in AAA, I think it's in both parties' best interest to keep things status quo. If the Yankees are still in the same place on June 15th (the Super 2 deadline), then we'll need to re-examine our situation. Until then, let's be patient with both Posada and Montero, and see how it plays out.

It's relatively easy to be patient when you're in first place. At the moment, the Yankees are tied for first place. If they fall behind Tampa Bay, they'll 1) be in second place and 2) be getting pushed hard in the Wild Card standings, too. If that day comes ... Brian Cashman seems like the patient sort, but I'm sure even he's got his limits. Not to mention the men who sign Cashman's paychecks.

Leaving all that aside, though, Buck's argument for patience is largely predicated on the twin notions that Posada can't be this bad and Montero probably isn't quite this good.

Did you notice the tiny difference between Montero's batting average and his on-base average? In 24 games this season with Scranton, Montero has drawn three walks. There's not much difference between his batting average and his slugging percentage, either; he's hit five doubles and one home run. Which is to say, nearly all of Montero's value as a hitter this season is due to his batting average ... and batting average is highly subject to luck. Which isn't to say Montero's not a high-average hitter; he's got a .315 career batting average in the minors. But he might not really be a .337 hitter in Class AAA, and he might not be a .300 hitter in the American League. And given the paucity of walks and power, if he's not hitting .300 he's not creating many runs. Not yet, anyway.

That said, I do not think the timing is a real issue. Since when do the Yankees care about someone's "Super 2" status? Plus, the rules regarding such things might well be different after this season, since they're a part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that expires soon. What the Yankees probably do care about is Montero's development. Do they want a 21-year-old catcher serving as their primary DH? Alternatively, do they want their primary catcher learning on the job, while Russell Martin or someone else is DHing?

No, probably not.

I don't think the Yankees will necessarily wait until the 15th of June to do something with Posada if he's still below the Mendoza Line. But the 10th of May seems a bit early to jettison the plan that seemed to make pretty good sense on the 10th of April.

For more about the Yankees, please visit Pinstripe Alley.

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio

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Comments

Next year

Let R.Martin catch, just give Posada less at bats at DH if his bat is a problem. Jesus is good, Jesus is great and I thank him for the food I eat. But it shouldn’t hurt much to hold off on him until next year.

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by Xeifrank on May 10, 2011 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

Firm Super Two deadline?

Who said the Super Two deadline is June 15? Don’t the top 1/6th of the players in terms of service time between two and three years qualify for arbitration? This would make the date float each year. I’m 99% sure there’s no firm date.

by GBSimons on May 10, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

I'm pretty sure it's the top 1/6s of players by production, not service time. I'm pretty sure there is a firm service time cutoff for being eligible.

"I can't recommend highly enough going back and watching old clips of Jose Lopez." -Jeff Sullivan

by joof on May 10, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

This year is Posada's last roundup- his contract expires.

Montero may not get called up until September for the traditional ‘cup of coffee,’ unless Martin gets hurt.

by designatedquitter on May 10, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

That's why you wait.

When you sit Jorge Posada, you’re ending his Yankee career. He is still showing an ability to draw walks and hit for power and as Rob pointed out when talking about Montero BA is fickle. If Jorge was hitting .235 his walk rate and ISO would be enough for him to be a good hitter. He’s been to good for to long to give up on him now. As for Montero the low walk rate and lack of power are anomalous to this short season, he’s always done both. He can use the extra time to develop as a catcher and if Posada is still struggling in another 150 PA’s or so, then bring him up as a DH backup catcher. As for the super two issue, I doubt that either Steinbrenner brother or Randy Levine bothered to learn anything about the complex rules service time and arbitration eligibility. They just wait for Cashman to tell them how much to write the check out for.

by Pflood83 on May 10, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions