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Apr 13, 2011 - David Schoenfield can't figure out why Jason Heyward's been dropped to sixth in the Atlanta Braves' batting order this season ...
Heyward was Atlanta's best hitter in 2010, leading the club in OPS. He's Atlanta's best hitter in 2011, sailing along with a .273/.429/.636 line through 11 games.
So it makes perfect sense that new Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez is hitting Heyward sixth, right?
No, of course it doesn't. Nobody bats their best hitter sixth, not even Tony Muser.
You know what's especially odd about this? Fredi Gonzalez isn't some grizzled old baseball man who spits tobacco juice on any statistic that wasn't in The Sporting News in 1963. Gonzalez showed up at the SABR Convention in Atlanta last summer and seemed to fit right in.
Granted, it's nonsensical to bat Heyward sixth, based on the numbers. Depending on his particular skills, of course, you want your best hitter batting either first (Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines), third (Hank Aaron, Ted Williams, etc) or fourth (Willie Stargell, Frank Robinson). I don't have the foggiest idea who the greatest No. 6 hitter in history might have been, but I'll bet he wasn't as good as Jason Heyward is, right now.
And it's obviously bizarre that Gonzalez has been penciling Nate McLouth in the No. 2 slot; that's just a crime against sabermetrics, pure and simple.
Of course, you know as well as David Schoenfield that it really makes little difference where McLouth and Heyward bat. Granted, McLouth's will cost the Braves a few runs over the course of the season if he stays in the No. 2 slot all season. Which he won't. And Heyward might account for two or three more runs if he were batting third or fourth rather than sixth. But the odds against the Braves missing a playoff spot because of Fredi Gonzalez's batting orders -- as opposed to the players he actually uses -- are exceptionally long.
Really, this is about aesthetics more than anything. It just looks wrong for McLouth to be listed four slots ahead of Heyward. And yes, I wish Gonzalez would stop it. If only because we don't get to see Heyward hit quite as often. And because we have to watch McLouth bat more.
22 comments
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Comments
The Book sez...
Your best three hitters hit 1-2-4 and that #3 should be taken care of after those (and in most cases the #5 spot as well unless your 4th best hitter lives and dies by the long ball) are taken care of. Heyward is Atlanta’s best hitter, so he should be hitting first, second, or fourth. I don’t really care which.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
by PWHjort on Apr 13, 2011 1:54 AM EDT reply actions
Kind of discouraging
That half the readers either don’t understand this or think Heyward is the Braves’ fourth best hitter.
by bsally on Apr 13, 2011 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted 2nd
Gonzalez is probably doing this for “psychological” reasons. Try to pump up a fragile McClouth by batting him second and trying to convince him he’s a better player? Keeping Heyward in the same spot because he’s hitting there and he’s comfortable there?
I think managers use batting order more as a psychological tool than a sabermetric tool, and I don’t know how much large sample size statistics can evaluate the “guts” of the psychological dimensions of managing.
Now whether that’s good or not, I don’t know. I doubt the “psychological”, “guts”, and “scouting” are going to have but so much credibility in these parts. I’m totally cool with that and look forward to seeing what Rob and others have to say about that here or elsewhere.
Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris - almost as all in as his battery mate Ryan Tatusko.
by souldrummer on Apr 13, 2011 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I like this thinking
if McLouth feels that his manager has faith in him and won’t yank him around the lineup the first time he goes 0 for 4, it helps his confidence at the plate.
Not to mention that he gets great pitches to hit with Jones, McCann, Uggla and Heyward all hitting behind him.
All that said, honestly Heyward should be batting 2nd or 3rd…with Chipper batting leadoff
by AU_Jonesy on Apr 13, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
OT: I dig your sig
I think that the Braves are going to come to regret trading Yunel, much like they may regret the Texeira deal. When you’re the Braves, I don’t think you are a team that can make any moves that are focused on the short term.
Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris - almost as all in as his battery mate Ryan Tatusko.
by souldrummer on Apr 13, 2011 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Look beyond the stats
Escobar was a cancer. A giant PITA. He needed to go. Everybody on that team hated him. If he was tearing the cover off the ball, you can live with it. However, Yuney wasn’t hitting last year before the trade.
I highly doubt anybody misses him in Atlanta. Especially considering Alex Gonzalez hasn’t been half bad and is really cheap, and Pastornicky is playing well in Mississippi
by AU_Jonesy on Apr 13, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Well those people are idiots then. Well, okay, not really. But seriously, Yunel does hit well for a shortstop and he’s roughly equivalent to Alex Gonzalez defensively. It’s a travesty that he was replaced with Gonzalez. Although if they bring up Pastornicky or Lipka soon and they hit well enough, I’ll manage. Still it cost the Braves to make that trade. Clubhouse cancer or not.
Boo! Tomorrow AM. I want all things now!
by Perrinbar on Apr 13, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yunel
was hitting .238/.334/.284 at the time of the trade, something Alex Gonzalez could have easily replicated even without hitting another 17 homers. If you tell a GM he can get rid of a jackass on his team, add a couple of interesting prospects, and lose nothing on the field during a pennant race—Bobby Cox’s last to boot—it’s going to be hard to say no.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
by PWHjort on Apr 13, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I know man, I know. But there is a fair amount of evidence that AGonz HR numbers were inflated by playing in Toronto and that they wouldn’t translate well in other parks. And I hated to see the braves make a trade because of the fact that Yunel was having an unlucky, off year especially because everyone knew they wanted to trade him, lowering his value. It looks especially bad because of all the injuries they suffered, which is no way to analyze it, of course. But I’d still be happier with Yunel instead of Sea Bass.
Boo! Tomorrow AM. I want all things now!
by Perrinbar on Apr 13, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
1995 Cleveland Indians
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1995-batting-orders.shtml
In the case of the 1995 Indians, they had Jim Thome (OPS+ 157) batting sixth, with Manny Ramirez (OPS+ 147) batting SEVENTH! Scoring 840 runs that year with a completely stacked lineup makes this somewhat more defensible. There’s absolutely no excuse when one of the guys keeping Heyward out of the top four spots is Nate McLouth.
by YouBeIllin on Apr 13, 2011 2:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This post condenses The Book's optimal lineup argument:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
by JSykes on Apr 13, 2011 8:33 AM EDT reply actions
Second
The difference between the most optimal and suboptimal lineups is usually 10-20 runs, or 1-2 wins over a season. Given that the Braves are likely contending for the WC spot, those wins may make a difference (though, it’s worth noting that the current lineup is nowhere near the least optimal lineup)
Rays/Cubs - AnotherCubsBlog.net - @Manu_P_Mishra on Twitter
by Mish on Apr 13, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions
That should be #2 and #4 to start the post
stupid autoformat
Rays/Cubs - AnotherCubsBlog.net - @Manu_P_Mishra on Twitter
by Mish on Apr 13, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Tangotiger weighs in...
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/is_jason_heyward_the_new_freddie_lynn/
by Rob Neyer on Apr 13, 2011 11:14 AM EDT reply actions
McCoy has a really good post...
…on the best offensive seasons by lineup spot.
by Jason Brannon on Apr 13, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry...
Fixed link.
by Jason Brannon on Apr 13, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
What about...
Prado leading off?
by carloscollazo06 on Apr 13, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions
Here's the problem...
It doesn’t matter where Heyward bats, although it would be great to maximize the number of his plate appearances. The problem is Heyward has nobody in front of him to drive in… and nobody behind him to drive him in. He’s one of those hitters who can do both extremely well, and a lineup that doesn’t take advantage will cost their team wins. Basically, I could pick a better lineup out of a hat, because then at least I’d have a 50% chance of him being in the top 4.
Yes, using Heyward optimally only will amount to a difference in the fractions of wins, but using Heyward correctly will help the Braves use the rest of their hitters correctly, and that all adds up really quickly.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Apr 13, 2011 11:46 AM EDT reply actions
The bigger problem is
that Nate McLouth is batting. Period.
by CSFreeman on Apr 13, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
No
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Apr 13, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Managers get paid to worry about the small chance that something they can easily do and easily justify doing will lead to that one extra win that will, in a tight race, get the team to the postseason. That is why this is so annoying to me, as a Braves’ fan.
It’s not as if those who want Heyward higher in the order are also asking for Chipper in the leadoff spot, though many of us realize Chipper hitting leadoff would likely lead to a few extra runs. We understand that’s a move that a manager could not easily justify to the media and the general fan base. Plus you run the risk of Chipper being less comfortable, given that he’s hit third his entire career. Such a move probably isn’t worth the possible gains.
But Heyward hit second most of last year while playing for an “old school” manager (for lack of a better term). It would be very simple to justify to the media and to casual fans Heyward batting second, or at least higher than sixth.
It’s disappointing that a manager is so unaware of the optimal spot for his best hitter and could very easily justify putting that hitter in that optimal spot.
by Shaun Payne on Apr 13, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
Fredi Gonzalez defends his batting order...
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/04/14/fredi-g-and-his-much-debated-lineup/
by Shaun Payne on Apr 14, 2011 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
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