Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo, long deserving of Hall of Fame induction, are now in. Who should be next on the list of deserving candidates?
Dec 5, 2011 - We need a cause.
For many years, we had two of them.
On the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot, we had Bert Blyleven.
On the Veterans Committee ballot -- ballots, really; there have been so many permutations in the last decade or so -- we had Ron Santo.
Life was pretty easy. Because Blyleven was clearly the best pitcher on the BBWAA ballot who wasn't getting elected, year after year, and Santo was clearly the best player on the Veterans Committee ballots, year after year.
We wrote (roughly) the same pieces every time those guys weren't elected, pieces that wrote themselves because the facts, so compelling to us, never changed.
Now they're both in. Blyleven was inducted last summer; Sunday, Santo was elected.
So who's next? Who do we get upset about every year when he's spurned by the voters once more?
I don't think Barry Larkin is our guy on the BBWAA ballot; I think he's going to be elected very soon (and I'm not alone).
As he should be.
As you probably know already, the Nerd's Choice is Tim Raines.
As he probably should be.
I'm just not as wild about Raines as I have been.
Blyleven was clearly well above the established standard for Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Santo was in the same territory among third basemen.
Raines is not so obviously among the best at his position. Looking just at Wins Above Replacement -- and yes, I know there's more to life than WAR but please bear with me -- Raines's 65 WAR places him above some Hall of Fame outfielders, but below a number of non-Hall of Fame outfielders. Not far behind. But Raines does fall below Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, and (by just a smidge) even Kenny Lofton on that scale.
Granted, Raines's baserunning probably isn't fairly accounted for by WAR. And Raines's peak was more valuable than those other guys' peaks. But I can't help shaking the feeling that we've not done quite enough to work yet to separate Raines from (say) Larry Walker. And if we're looking for a cause célbère, the argument should be compelling.
Which is why this nerd's choice is Alan Trammell. With 67 Wins Above Replacement, Trammell ranks seventh in major-league history among players who spent the great majority of their careers as shortstops. The top six: Honus Wagner, Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughn, Derek Jeter, Luke Appling, Barry Larkin.
Trammell is right behind Larkin, and ahead of everyone else. Am I sure that Trammell was really better than Pee Wee Reese and Ozzie Smith, next on the list? I am not. But I'm comfortable arguing that Trammell is one of the 12 greatest shortstops, which seems like as good a qualification for the Hall of Fame as any.*
* There are currently 17 shortstops in the Hall of Fame, with Larkin and Jeter on the way.
Meanwhile, Trammell's appeared on 10 Hall of Fame ballots, and this year's 24 percent was his best showing. He'll get a few more votes next year, probably. But then his percentage figures to plummet in 2013 when the ballot is flooded with outstanding (if steroid-fueled) candidates.
So Alan Trammell isn't the next Bert Blyleven; he's not going to be elected by the BBWAA, no matter how much you and I and Rich Lederer might scream about him. At best, he'll be the next Ron Santo. But that's many years off.
Right now, I'd like to come up with today's next Ron Santo.
When the Golden Era Committee convened yesterday, only three other players got more than two of the 16 possible votes: Jim Kaat with 10, Gil Hodges and Minnie Miñoso with nine apiece.
Kaat's case is simple: He won 283 games. Maybe that's enough, though if it's enough for Kaat then it's enough for Tommy John, too. For me, Kaat's relative lack of outstanding seasons and his 108 career OPS+ just doesn't get it done.
I've been writing about Hodges for a long time. Despite playing for outstanding teams, he never finished higher than seventh in MVP voting. You can make a case for him, but he certainly wasn't one of the dozen best first basemen ever. He might be in the top two dozen. But it's close. The case for Hodges essentially requires giving him extra credit for managing the 1969 New York Mets. Which is fine, except once you start giving really good players credit for their managerial successes, too, you'll have to open up a new wing in the Hall of Fame. There's just no precedent for doing that.
So in the absence of real support for guys like Buzzie Bavasi (who's on the ballot) and Bill James (who was not), I suspect our energies might best be applied to Miñoso. I've gone back and forth on him over the years, and just this fall I concluded that he fell just a bit short. But lately a lot of smart people have been writing about Minnie, and now I'm back on the other side. If you believe that baseball's color line cost him two or three (or more) seasons in the majors, he's got a great case. If you believe that his efforts allowed a number of Cuban players to play in the majors in the 1960s -- and argument I've seen, though not explored in depth -- that's another marker.
The Golden Era Committee is scheduled to meet again in 2014. The members will, I suspect, believe they have failed if they don't elect someone. Minnie Miñoso is 86 years old. According to him. It will be, shall we say, odd if the Hall of Fame's arcane procedures result in Miñoso finally gaining election shortly after he's around to enjoy it, as they did with Santo...
Finally, since this might be my last chance to mention this (without being completely gratuitous) ... In 1980, the first time Ron Santo appeared on the BBWAA's Hall of Fame ballot, he got 15 votes. Among the 23 candidates who fared better: Don Larsen, ElRoy Face, Lew Burdette, and Roger Maris. Oh, and Gil Hodges. Gil Hodges got a lot more votes than Santo. And yet, today Ron Santo's a Hall of Famer and Gil Hodges still is not.
I don't know how to explain it. So I will leave the floor to this wise fellow:
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Comments
Edmonds was a 7 win player at his peak
… a full win better than Raines. It think you could argue that he was a better player than Raines, unless Raines value is solely underestimated by WAR.
I think Edmonds might be the “next guy”. Unremarkable counting numbers, fantastic peak, overshadowed by Pujols, and fairly underrated because much of his value comes from defense, positional adjustment, OBP, and SLG.
by Poochie on Dec 5, 2011 1:48 PM EST reply actions
DICK ALLEN
by court168627 on Dec 5, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions
If we are starting a team of non-HOFers from the so-called Golden Era...
…Richie/Rich/Dick is clearly the #1 position player missing.
I love Minnie Minoso’s career, and do believe he deserves serious consideration for the Hall, in part due to extenuating circumstances, but by the bWAR scores Allen is almost 10 wins to the better than Minoso. Allen was NL Rookie of the Year in 1964 with an absolutely massive year, AL MVP in 1972 with a similar year, and had a bunch of great hitting years in between. Yes, his defense at 3B and 1B was below average, but he was one of the greatest bats in the game for a decade who was able to hold down 3B well enough to play there every day for some years. Unjustly punished by baseball writers who simply couldn’t deal with his manner.
by Tim E. Space on Dec 5, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
Lou Whitaker
He has more WAR than Trammell. And unlike Trammell, he was actually the best 2B in the league for a time. Whitaker has really gotten the shaft. The only eligible position players with higher WAR than are not in are Jeff Bagwell and Bill Dahlen.
by Stephen Suffron on Dec 5, 2011 2:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
When they were playing, I thought they’d go in as a package deal. Since they’ve retired, though, bupkes.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
by Nolij on Dec 5, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Bill Dahlen is ahead of Trammell on the all time SS list
Unless you are ignoring deadball candidates, Dahlen has the fifth highest WAR for a SS and is not in the HOF.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
This is to Rob
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Edgar Martinez
by Chris_FB on Dec 5, 2011 2:27 PM EST reply actions 10 recs
Yes
Post tenebras lux
by Archibald Cunningham on Dec 5, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
This. Definitely this.
by Phrozen on Dec 5, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Look,
I’m as big a fan of Edgar as anyone. I’ve pointed out to people that you can take about five of Edgar’s best seasons and mix them in with Ted Williams’ record and you wouldn’t be able to pick out whose is whose.
But for awhile Edgar was only the fourth or fifth best player on his TEAM (Griffey, A-Rod, Johnson, and depending how you feel about Buhner), and that team didn’t win much of anything championship-wise. That’s a strange recommendation for a Hall of Famer.
Man could hit, though, no question about it. If the best closers can make the Hall, I don’t see why a DH can’t.
by bucdaddy on Dec 6, 2011 7:52 AM EST up reply actions
DH
I’m not one who thinks DH’s shouldn’t make the hall (I think Frank Thomas is pretty much a no brainer), but, unlike others, I also don’t think that DH’s sould be compared against other DHs (ie, being the “best” DH doesnt mean much to me), but must be compared against ALL hitters. For Edgar, his career counting stats aren’t that great, but his BA, OBP, OPS, OPS+ and WAR all seem to be HOF worthy. I guess it depends on whether you rely more on “old” or “new” metrics.
by Cauzneffct on Dec 6, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Whoever it is
I’m sure they’ll just be a stand-in until Bonds and Clemens get minimal support in their first year on the ballot.
I'm as tall as Mel. Why can't I hit 500 home runs?
by Ott on Dec 5, 2011 2:52 PM EST reply actions
Jeff Bagwell
I know he’s probably left out for the same reason as Larkin. But I find it unlikely he gets in next year. And as you know, the 2013 ballot starts getting very crowded.
He should be in, and the push needs to be started now. If he’s stuck around 50 percent after this year, he could just be part of the crowd.
by todmod on Dec 5, 2011 2:57 PM EST reply actions
Tim Raines for Sure
Here’s why it’s really not fair to compare Raines and Walker: the latter played half of his games (for more than 9 years) in pre-humidor Coors Field. Perhaps not surprisingly, his career home OPS is a full .200 higher than his career road OPS. His career OPS at Coors was 1.172. That’s simply ridiculous. It was .890 at Olympic Stadium, where he played 350 games. Raines compiled an .838 OPS in Montreal. If there were a way to figure his stolen bases into SLG (a single + 2 SB is almost as valuable as a triple), Raines would look even better. Walker was surely a very good player, but for many years, he was just one of a handful of guys who hit a lot at Coors. Raines was a special player.
by jjackflash on Dec 5, 2011 3:07 PM EST reply actions
I vote Raines too
by DavidRF on Dec 5, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
"If there were a way to figure his stolen bases into SLG"
I believe wOBA does this. Walker beats Raines .414 to .374. I actually think both should be in the HOF, but Walker will get less credit than he deserves because of Cooers. So Walker is more underrated.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
I Can't Find
anything that says that SBs are part of wOBA. Maybe it’s counted in something else. I’d really like to know, though. The bases he stole are a big part of Raines’ value. The results show up elsewhere, indirectly (i.e., surely he scored a good number of runs due to the fact that he got himself into scoring position via SB).
Then there’s the whole “intangible” factor – the number of hittable fastballs served up to guys hitting behind him by pitchers who were distracted or hoping to give their catchers a chance to throw him out. But that’s a completely different discussion.
by jjackflash on Dec 5, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Edgar Martinez!
by joof on Dec 5, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
McGwire
He already fills the Clemens/Bonds slot – but with the caveat he has admitted his PED use without having any legal actions taking against him.
Would it be fair to say that the argument over who the “next” should be probably shouldn’t begin until someone has been on the ballot 4-5 years and is clearly not going to increase in voting without some kind of campaign? Larkin seems likely to go in next time, Bagwell possibly as well. In that case, Raines, Trammell, Whitaker and perhaps Bobby Grich should dominate this discussion.
by jdscott on Dec 5, 2011 3:29 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
My short list of those eligible for HOF
Not including Bagwell or Larkin, whom I think both will be inducted in the next few years. My top ten not in the HOF, in no particular order:
1. Lou Whitaker – in the top ten second basemen of all time
2. Bobby Grich – also in the top ten second basemen of all time
3. Graig Nettles – ranked 11th third basemen of all time according to bWAR
4. Edgar Martinez – in top four DH’s of all time (with Molitor, Thome, and Big Frank)
5. Bill Dahlen – woefully underrated SS from the dead ball era – top five SS all-time
6. Ted Simmons– 11th best catcher all time according to bWAR
7. Alan Trammell – top ten SS of all time
8. Larry Walker – great player underrated due to where he played and the era he played
9. Bob Caruthers – great 19th century player – racked up impressive value as a pitcher and a hitter
10. Rafael Palmeiro – 3000 hits, 500 HR, how come no other steroid-accused player reached those levels?
What will probably happen is once Mike Mussina and Scott Rolen are eligible, they will take over Santo’s and Blyleven’s spots.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 3:51 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Jesus,
are we really still stumping for 1890s and Dead Ball-era guys?
Where does it end? Where do we draw the line?
by bucdaddy on Dec 5, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
If they deserve to be in the Hall, then absolutely
If a player retired before the turn of the century, it was 40 years before the HOF came into existence. Many players did not have contemporary writers alive and able to vote for them. Now we have the ability to look at these players historically.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One through four, yes. Five I’ve never heard of. Six and seven yes. Eight, meh. Nine, I’ve heard of but no. Ten? HELL no.
by Phrozen on Dec 5, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Well I figured Raffy would be controversial
But you should really look at Bill Dahlen.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Good list
You certainly have thought long and hard about it. I have as well. My list is based on my wWAR metric:
– Al Spalding (I rank him first though he’s already in the Hall, but not as a player.)
1. Jeff Bagwell
2. Bob Caruthers
3. Pete Rose
4. Shoeless Joe Jackson
5. Bill Dahlen
(YES! SANTO USED TO BE HERE!)
6. Ross Barnes
7. Jack Glasscock
8. Ted Simmons
9. Deacon White
10. Joe Torre
11. Edgar Martinez
12. Barry Larkin
13. Bobby Grich
14. Alan Trammell
15. Larry Walker
16. Dick Allen
17. Kevin Brown
18. Jimmy Wynn
19. Lou Whitaker
20. Wes Ferrell
Creator of the • @baseballtwit on Twitter
by adarowski on Dec 5, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't include Rose or Shoeless Joe because they are still ineligible
Glasscock, Torre, Allen, Brown, and Wynn are on my short list (probably in that order). Not so sure on Ferrell, White, or Barnes – all good players, no doubt, but borderline for the HOF for me. Although, I have to admit to not knowing a great deal about Barnes – how do you correctly value someone from the 1870s with a short career and short seasons?
by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
adarowski
have you made wWAR available yet? I would love to get it into a spreadsheet and study it more.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Trammell and Whitaker Both
The Hall of Fame is pretty terrible at admitting that there is less offense at non-corner positions when you’re not using steroids, which ruined the hindsight view of the great Tigers duo. They should both be in, preferably before they die.
Moose definitely deserves to get in.
R.I.P. Nick Adenhart - Always an Angel
by Kernel on Dec 5, 2011 4:26 PM EST reply actions
Trammell
He’s an interesting case. Using an arbitrary cut off of seasons in which he played at least 100 games (cutting off his first year and his last 3, plus 1 other year), he’s almost evenly split with 7 years with an OPS+ under 100 and 8 years over 110. He’d have 2 or 3 years where he was over 120-30, and then a year where he was under 90.
by Cauzneffct on Dec 6, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
But he put up those numbers as an above average defensive SS
With a career 110 OPS+, he belongs in the HOF to me.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Marvin Miller
End of discussion
by Nathan Thurm on Dec 5, 2011 4:34 PM EST reply actions
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Oh wait, I have.
Anyway, in lieu of Marvin, if you really “went back and forth” over the years trying to decide whether a guy is a Hall of Famer,. then he isn’t. Also end of discussion.
by bucdaddy on Dec 5, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
I reject that assertion.
Utterly.
Your approach is predicated upon the notion that we begin our analysis with every scrap of relevant information. Which we usually do not, and which we especially do not in the case of Mr. Miñoso.
by Rob Neyer on Dec 5, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
If you want to keep watering down the HoF
with borderline guys (“Gee, from this angle he looks like an HoFer and from this angle I’m not so sure”), that’s your privilege, I guess. They’re never going to get a dollar out of me one way or the other (if I’m ever in Cooperstown, I’m going to the Ommegang brewery). But is that really what you want your Hall of FAME to be? Fine. I’m sure there are some guys back in the One O’ Cat era who haven’t properly been considered yet, after 200 years of analysis. They’re pretty underrepresented in the Hall, don’t you think?
And what does the color line have to do with Minnie Minoso? I’m not trying to underplay the disaster baseball brought upon itself by keeping black players out of the majors for so long. I understand he got cheated. I’m saying, what does it have to do with anything? If we give Minnie credit for the years he lost to the color line, why don’t thousands of other guys get credit for, I dunno, the years they were cheated while they were in military service in World War II, or Korea, or why don’t we give Tony Conigliaro credit for the years he was cheated out of by being hit in the head with a pitch? He might have hit 600 homers if not for that, so should he go in the Hall, because of what he MIGHT have done?
But if you’re happy with a Hall that has 3,000 members, then I guess I can’t argue with you.
by bucdaddy on Dec 5, 2011 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
3000 members is a bit of an exaggeration
The fact is the baseball HOF is the most exclusive HOF of the major sports, but it has become too exclusive at the expensive of highly deserving candidates.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 5, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
We can dicker
over “highly deserving” all day, but we both probably have better things to do.
by bucdaddy on Dec 6, 2011 7:53 AM EST up reply actions
"Might have done"
I agree that we have to take a player’s career for what it was, not what it could have been. What’s interesting is that when people talk of a player being cheated out of time, they always assume that he would have performed at a great level where its just as possible that he would have played ok/poorly, gotten hurt, been traded to a different team, etc,. all of which could have negatively impacted his overall stats.
by Cauzneffct on Dec 6, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Tony Oliva!
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 5, 2011 7:18 PM EST reply actions
ehhhh
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
Posting pictures
by Andrew GM on Dec 5, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ted Simmons
by hotwater2 on Dec 5, 2011 9:06 PM EST reply actions
Bryce Harper
by hcoguy on Dec 5, 2011 10:59 PM EST reply actions
Danny Murtaugh
definitely deserves a place in Cooperstown, if we objectively analyze his qualifications. Surprising he hasn’t received more support, but managers don’t have the volume of data players compile.
In the history of baseball, only 13 multiple winning World Series managers have earned induction. Murtaugh won as many world titles as Bobby Cox and Whitey Herzog COMBINED. And Murtaugh must be credited with the manner he led those championship runs, leading the underdog Pirates past the favored 1960 Yankees and 1971 Orioles(and those clubs had HOF managers). Murtaugh rallied the Bucs from 2-1 deficits in both series.
Postseason frequency is another category where Murtaugh ranks well versus HOF managers. Currently, only seven managers have been elected to the Hall whose careers included significant stretches from 1969 on. Only Earl Weaver owns a better percentage, and Murtaugh beats the likes of Walter Alston, Sparky Anderson, Dick Williams, Leo Durocher, and Herzog in this department.
In recording 1,115 wins, Murtaugh’s regular season winning percentage is easily good enough for Cooperstown, ranking in the middle of the pack among HOF managers. His .540 ranks ahead of the likes of Tommy Lasorda, Williams, Bill McKechine, and Casey Stengel.
Murtaugh played an important part of MLB history in 1971, when he fielded the first all-black lineup in MLB history. He also played a key role in developing talent in Pittsburgh, as many of his players keyed the Bucs’ dominance in the 1970s. In fact, only the A’s won more world titles than the 1970s Pirates.
Health issues limited Murtaugh(who died in 1976) to four different stints as manager, and from possibly winning another world title. However, his resume is Cooperstown-worthy, and only needs to be recognized.
by SteelStealth on Dec 5, 2011 11:12 PM EST reply actions
I'll pick one nit with you.
It’s not like Murtaugh consciously set out to be a ground-breaking pioneer with the all-black lineup. He had some guys hurt and just played the best players he had available that day. That they happened to be black, I think, was beside the point. He was just trying to win that day’s ballgame.
by bucdaddy on Dec 6, 2011 7:56 AM EST up reply actions
Color-blind Attitude
I understand your point about Murtaugh trying to win a game that day with the first all-black lineup, but some of the Pirates on that team believe this wasn’t an accident, and he was very much aware of the history being made that day. In 1971 race was still an issue, and this was several years before Frank Robinson became the first black manager.
The Pirates during Murtaugh’s tenure had many quality minority players during the 60s and 70s, and he was able to successfully integrate the clubhouse, while fielding winning teams. Murtaugh didn’t always see eye to eye with Roberto Clemente, but later, recognized Roberto’s leadership role, and began confiding in him to pass along important messages for the entire team.
Longtime Hall of Famer Willie Stargell said " If I were a manager, Murtaugh is the type of manager I’d want to be like. He doesn’t demand respect; he commands it. He knows how to handle players, to get the most out of them. He doesn’t say much, but when he does, you listen because you know it means something."
The outspoken Dock Ellis said " Winning. That’s all he cares about. Nothing else. Screw up, you hear about it. Black or white."
by SteelStealth on Dec 6, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'd say Tim Raines first
but after that, how about the Evanses, Dewey and Darrell. Dewey Evans was a better player with a longer career than his teammate Jim Rice. His peak value is even comparable to Rice’s peak.
Darrell Evans was sort of the Ron Santo of the 1970s, except he didn’t have Santo’s glove. He was OK there though, at least when he was young.
by Josh Timmers on Dec 6, 2011 12:24 AM EST reply actions
Evans didn't have the peak of Santo, but had the longevity Santo didn't have
but he should definitely be in the Hall.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Casey Kelly
Why does there have to be another player to support?
by LordD99 on Dec 6, 2011 3:40 AM EST reply actions
Thank you.
by bucdaddy on Dec 6, 2011 7:56 AM EST up reply actions
Hondo
He could replace Rice.
by TZig on Dec 6, 2011 9:28 AM EST reply actions
Most Deserving & Most over looked
How about Dwight Evans? Perenial Gold Glover, with power, possessing on-Base skills …. Career OPS almost at .900.
Would take him over Tony Perez, Andrea Dawson,
Dwight never received any love from HOF voters … and he had a better career then Jim Rice (and I’m a huge Rice fan) .
by MDaniels37 on Dec 6, 2011 10:25 AM EST reply actions
The Louisville Slugger
Pete Browning couldn’t field and he wouldn’t slide, but he won batting titles in more than one major league and was a .400 hitter more than once. He should be in.
by squires8 on Dec 6, 2011 11:13 AM EST reply actions
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