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Dec 14, 2011 - The Twins are reportedly going to sign Josh Willingham, perhaps for three years and $21 million. According to TwinsCentric, Willingham will be a particularly good replacement in the lineup for free-agent Michael Cuddyer, who is presumably not coming back. See, Willingham is a big-time pull hitter, while Cuddyer is not. Which is notable because ... well, here. You can read for yourself:
The Twins organization puts a great amount of pride on getting their hitters to use the entire field. Unfortunately, in Minneapolis today, that gets you diddley-squat. According to observations made by Delmon Young in October, the former Twin said the configurations and the environment made using the entire field nearly impossible ...
--snip--
Most of the home runs hit at Target Field by right-handers were pulled, a dozen were hit to left-center, five to center and just three went opposite field. This was a huge drop-off from production at the Metrodome when right-handers had 20 home runs to center and right field in 2009. If the Twins were going to get a right-hander with home run power, they would need to acquire a pull hitter to thrive at Target Field. That's where Josh Willingham comes in. In the simplest terms, Willingham is that dead-pull hitter the Twins need.
Hey, I love dead-pull hitters as much as anyone. Willingham's a dead-pull hitter, and a good one. Consistent, too. His OPS+'s the last three seasons: 127, 129, 121.
Of course, Willingham is almost 33 years old and it's quite possible that we've seen his best. I would love to have him for one season, and I would like to have him for two. Three ... well, that might be a season too far.
Or it might not be. If he's healthy and keeps pulling the ball, he could certainly be worth $21 million over three seasons. Probably will be, now that I think about it.
I don't buy the analysis above, though. There were supposedly eight home runs hit to center or right field by right-handed hitters in 2011, compared to 20 at the Metrodome in 2009.
Well, okay. But what about 2010? And is a difference of 12 home runs over the course of 81 games really huge? It's huge, percentage-wise. But otherwise it's really not. That's well within the range, I suspect, of random statistical variation.
Now, I might be more amenable to the analysis except for two more things.
One, two seasons is not enough to draw any overarching conclusions about a ballpark's impact on statistics and performance.
And two, there is no obvious reason why Target Field would be particularly tough on right-handed power hitters with a yen for the opposite field. Sure, there's no cozy baggie over there, beckoning opposite-field hitters like the Green Monster does. It's certainly easier to pull the ball for home runs than going the opposite way, just as in nearly every other ballpark that's ever been built. But the right-field fence is actually closer than the left-field fence, both down the line and in the alley.
Again, there's nothing wrong with pull hitters. Willingham's cheaper than Cuddyer, the slightly better hitter, and just a month or so older. Willingham is a good alternative to re-signing Cuddyer, particularly considering that in letting Cuddyer go, the Twins will pick up a couple of draft picks next summer.
But there's nothing particularly special about Willingham, or Target Field.
7 comments
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Comments
Target Field is a beautiful ballpark.
I will say that.
by Jesse on Dec 14, 2011 4:20 PM EST reply actions
Loni Anderson is a beautiful woman.
I will also say that.
by RandBall's Stu on Dec 14, 2011 4:43 PM EST reply actions
Sorry Rob, you're wrong here...
Not about the players themselves, but the field they’ll be playing on. Consider the way Target Field is built, e.g.: with the second and third levels overly close to the playing field (the Twins brass like to call it “intimate”). The upper deck in left field is basically right in line with the outfield wall, and over half the lower deck around the infield is under the overhang of the upper levels – there is nowhere for air to circulate properly, or I should say “fluidly” over the field of play. I call it a “coffee can” (I could draw up some diagrams for you if this isn’t making any sense) This is magnified by the open plaza of right field, as the air only has one way to go in it’s efforts to flow smoothly, causing incoming and escaping gusts to simply crash into each other head on. Stick the ends of two water hoses together, turn them on, then watch what happens and you’ll understand what I’m talking about. Air can do nothing but circulate, which is incredibly good at knocking the wind out of a baseball’s sails.
Furthermore, there is not enough digits on both my hands and both my feet, to count the number of times I’ve seen a hitter flip his bat or pimp a hard hit ball in the batters box, only to watch helplessly rounding 1st base as it’s caught for an out on the warning track. Players like Miguel Cabrera, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler – all whom know a thing or two about when they’ve hit a baseball hard enough for a HR – they’ve all done it, only to walk back to the dugout with an incredulous look on their face.
And if you’re a Right-handed hitter trying to go opposite field, good luck. I’m pretty sure I can count the number of oppo-HR’s there have been on 1 hand in Target Fields 2 years of existence. That’s not an anomaly, that’s striking evidence for this argument.
by MNTwinsGUFS on Dec 14, 2011 5:08 PM EST reply actions
Very nicely done Rob, I'd have to agree
Altough you contend Willingham is the slightly better hitter, I think they’re essentially =.
Cuddyer has a much lower K% and the difference in batting average you know you’re going ot get with Cuddy has me feeling more comfortable giving a large role to him on a team, a team in particular need of a cleanup hitter in Minnesota.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2011 6:39 PM EST reply actions
Hard to believe a charter member of the Baby Marlins is 33
by schraderfan on Dec 14, 2011 6:40 PM EST reply actions
I don't think he was always a pull hitter
Just something I looked at here on FanGraphs. You can see on that chart that his batted ball angle changed last year and was really close to zero degrees on flies, lines and homers before last year.
www.AmazinAvenue.com
www.FanGraphs.com
by Eno Sarris on Dec 15, 2011 2:47 AM EST reply actions
I call lame
Wow. Ever since Target Field opened there has been nonstop talk of how it swallows up fly balls, and statistics bear it out. It’s fine to be contrarion, but really, these are your best arguments?
1) it might be random;
2) two years is not enough to be sure it’s even happening;
3) off the top of your head (without actually looking at it or reading anything) you can’t see a reason why it’s happening, so maybe it’s not.
We’re supposed to reject all evidence to the contrary because of that? Rob, you are usually the most rational baseball writer around. This is not like you.
Your conclusion, regarding pull hitters, is that “there’s nothing particularly special about either WIllingham, or Target Field.”
I recommend people just read the linked article, but I’ll cite just two bits of evidence.
One is a spray chart showing all the home runs hit by right handers at target field. A grand total of three balls were hit out to the entire right half. Take a look: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zGl4hNCJGas/To8pLlmM23I/AAAAAAAAAOw/dx62u9WVhPM/s1600/Target+Field_RHB_2011.JPG.
Hageman then presents stats showing that for the past three years, Willingham has put up the 7th highest wOBA and 4th highest ISO in all of baseball when pulling the ball, behind only a handful of people like Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista.
What exactly do you have to do to be “special”?
I am a Twins fan and have read everything I could about WIllingham in the past few days. Parker Hageman’s analysis stood out as the most useful, penetrating, and insightful of everything I read. He makes a clear, incisive argument, and backed it up with powerful, surprising facts. Frankly, this critique seems kinda shallow and lazy. It’s hard to believe it’s by Rob Neyer, one of the smartest, most sensible (those don’t always go together) writers I follow. Very odd.
by by jiminy on Dec 16, 2011 12:05 AM EST reply actions
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