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Of the 13 new players on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, Bernie Williams is probably the best. But is that good enough for the voters?
Nov 30, 2011 - This week, the Baseball Writers' Association of America mailed out the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot to "approximately 600 voting members".*
* In case you're wondering, a "voting member" isn't the same as an "active member". There are also approximately 600 "active members" of the BBWAA, including Robert J. Neyer and Amy K. Nelson. But one doesn't become a "voting member" until one has been an "active member" for 10 years. Meanwhile, a significant number of "voting members" haven't actually written or thought about baseball for some years. But so it goes. Pobody's nerfect.
What makes next year's ballot less interesting than most: None of the new names on the ballot are going to garner significant support from the voters.
Here are the 13 new names. Stop reading when you see a deserving candidate...
Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Brian Jordan, Javy Lopez, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, Eric Young
The best of those players was Bernie Williams. The worst of them was ... Nah. That would be mean. Brad Radke was a lot better than people remember, and Tim Salmon somehow never played in an All-Star Game. Terry Mulholland was almost impossible to steal against. All of these guys were good baseball players, in their own ways.
But Williams is the only one who's going to get any love at all from the voting members.
And you know, there's a case to be made for Bernie Williams. For roughly 15 years, he played center field for an excellent team. He scored 100 runs eight times, and drove in 100 runs five times. Sure, his teammates helped in those areas. But Williams' .297/.381/.477 line is quite lovely for a center fielder.
The problem for most of the voters will be Williams' counting stats. Because he didn't really become an every-day player until he was 24 and was finished at 37, he didn't pile up a ton of hits or homers or RBIs. And while he does have nearly a full season's worth of postseason statistics -- for which he deserves some credit -- he has few memorable October moments and overall his stats are right in line with his regular-season numbers.
That's why he won't get much support from the voters.
Should he, though? Based purely on his position and his hitting, I would rate him a borderline candidate. The problem is that his defensive statistics were terrible. Yes, I know he won four Gold Gloves. Derek Jeter won five. These facts say a lot more about the idiocy of the process than about Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Williams was a slightly below-average center fielder. According to FanGraphs, he was a terrible center fielder. Oddly, though, both sites come up with the same answer about his overall value: 47 or 48 Wins Above Replacement. And that's just not a Hall of Famer.
Of the holdovers from last year's ballot, only five candidates received at least 30 percent support a year ago: Barry Larkin (62 percent), Jack Morris (54), Lee Smith (44), Jeff Bagwell (42) and Tim Raines (38).
Others who deserve serious consideration: Edgar Martinez (33 percent), Mark McGwire (20), Fred McGriff (18), Dale Murphy (13), Rafael Palmeiro (11), Alan Trammell (24), Larry Walker (20).
I could make cases for all of those guys. Not bullshit cases. Reasonable cases. All of them. That's just where we're at right now, with a ballot loaded with candidates who meet reasonable historical standards for the Hall of Fame.
If I were a voting member, I certainly would vote for Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, and Trammell. And I would agonize for many, many hours over the rest of them.
In any event, I do expect Larkin to be elected. The rest of these guys are in real trouble, though. You think this is a crowded ballot? Next year, these worthies will be joined by Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, and Craig Biggio. And then the fun really starts.
20 comments
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Comments
I want to say yes
Considering he was one of my favorite Yankees growing up in the 1990s. But he didn’t quite do enough for long enough. Although, I could see him getting VC love 30-40 years from now.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 30, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions
Edgar Martinez Needs a Strong Showing
As stated above, with the names being added to next year’s and the following year’s HOF ballots, Edgar needs to show strong improvement this year to remain relevant. I’d hate to see him have to wait another 10 years or so like Bert Blyleven.
by cjdahl on Nov 30, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions
No to Bernie, yes to Edgar
Maybe it’s just my Mariners bias, but Edgar is clearly the best designated hitter in history, a multiple-time batting champion and the steady face of the Mariners. I liked Bernie Williams and think he was a great player. But somehow he doesn’t have an “of course he’s a Hall of Famer” reaction from me. Edgar does, as does Dale Murphy, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell and perhaps Fred McGriff. I’d include Mark McQwire too now that he’s come clean about not being clean; he was a great player before steroids, but I admit that one could vote against him because of the steroids. Next year’s ballot? All three of the non-steroid players: Piazza, Schilling and Biggio. The rest are worthy only if you get past the steroid issue.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". ~Rogers Hornsby
by extavernmouse on Nov 30, 2011 4:02 PM EST reply actions
Hall of Very Good
by theterminizer on Nov 30, 2011 4:05 PM EST reply actions
Led the league twice:
Batting average (once) and intentional walks (once).
What everyone has danced around is the fact he was a Yankee, and thus bound to be seriously overrated by at least half the voters. He’ll make it in, for much the same raeson a guy like Herb Pennock is in there.
by bucdaddy on Dec 2, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I really liked King Fish
but eh, his career was a wee bit short, and he definitely deserved a few all-star appearances in some years. He had plenty of good years, just not enough “wow” years.
by Adamthebluejay on Nov 30, 2011 4:34 PM EST reply actions
Does the vote answer your question?
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
#FireRoseman
@boknows71
by boknows71 on Nov 30, 2011 4:35 PM EST reply actions
Rock
I still find it hard to believe how short people’s memories are. Tim Raines was not Rickey Henderson, but he was a very good to excellent player for many years.
by RynoatSecond on Nov 30, 2011 5:12 PM EST reply actions
Rock
You know why he wasn’t as good as Rickey? Because no lead-off hitter has ever been as good as Rickey and we’ll all be lucky if we live out entire lives and see even one lead-off hitter that approaches that level of greatness. Rickey, I feel, is the exact reason Raines is having trouble. They are two lead-off hitters from the same era and Raines is clearly #2 with a bullet. He’s still a HOF lead-off man whether he played in Rickey’s era or not. He just gets lost in all things Rickey. I also feel like if the teams they had played for were reversed and if Raines’ personality was similar to Rickey’s larger than life personality there wouldn’t be a question about Raines’ candidacy.
by Win-cicum on Nov 30, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
I’d love to see Salmon go in…
by BrentSchmidt on Nov 30, 2011 7:05 PM EST reply actions
Had some good years, but....
Didn’t even get 300 HRs in his career. .
A good player on a great team isn’t HOF material.
Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?
by Buttermaker on Nov 30, 2011 10:07 PM EST reply actions
At this point, my ballot would be: Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell. Maybe Scruff McGruff.
by Phrozen on Nov 30, 2011 11:25 PM EST reply actions
Rob's Ballot
I completely agree with the way Rob would vote. Those four guys belong, and while there are some phenomenal ballplayers that Rob has left off of the ballot I believe in the end they all have flaws that keep them out. They are great, great players, but there will forever be guys that everyone struggles with. I believe that keeping that perspective in mind and staying objective about some of these players’ shortcomings and the hall’s high standards is the hardest part for the HOF voters.
by Win-cicum on Nov 30, 2011 11:57 PM EST reply actions
The Hall's what?
by bucdaddy on Dec 2, 2011 3:00 AM EST up reply actions
Bernie Williams HOFer
I would put Bernie Williams in the HOF because he had a better career than a majority of the center fielders in the HOF. I would take Bernie Williams over Elmer Flick, Lloyd Waner, Earle Combs, Richie Ashburn, Larry Doby, Hack Wilson, Edd Roush, Kirby Puckett, and Max Carey. If these players, who played a significant part of their careers as center fielders, are in the HOF how can Bernie Williams be left out?
by SportsGuy823 on Dec 1, 2011 8:14 AM EST reply actions
Richie Ashburn: 58.0 rWAR, 67.5 fWAR.
Bernie Williams: 47.3 rWAR, 47.5 fWAR.
by Phrozen on Dec 1, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
gotta include the murph
bagwell, martinez, mcguire, larkin, raines, murphy.
by 3run_bomb on Dec 1, 2011 10:53 AM EST reply actions
My Ballot - I'm voting for ten
In order:
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Alan Trammell
Tim Raines
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Lee Smith
The last four are a bit weaker and/or more controversial, but all have solid HOF arguments. After next year, many of them will drop off the ballot, so every HOF voter needs to vote for ten to help with the backlog we already have and will continue to get worse.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 1, 2011 9:32 PM EST reply actions
You know what would solve that?
One vote: In/Out. None of this 15-year waiting bullshit, and then having everything the BBWAA does held up for review 25 years later.
Who designed the HoF voting structure, Moammar Qaddafi?
I’m particularly a fan of Edgar Martinez. You can mix five or so of Edgar’s best years in with Ted Williams’ record and you couldn’t tell the difference. But really, Edgar was the fourth or fifth best player on his own TEAM for awhile (A-Rod, Griffey, Randy Johnson and depending on how you feel about Buhner), and that team never made a World Series.
Tim Raines, and Tim Raines only.
Plus my annual write-in for Marvin Miller, if I had a vote.
by bucdaddy on Dec 2, 2011 3:06 AM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have 15 years than one vote only
They should remove the limit of 10 players to vote on, and make a minimum number of votes mandatory (say 3 per voter)
by cookiedabookie on Dec 2, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
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