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How Old Is Albert Pujols?

Nov 21, 2011 - Jason: Let's debate.

Resolved: Albert Pujols is not 31 years old.

Rob: I'm not sure who you would debate with!

Jason: Well, let's kick it around, anyway. I'll argue the affirmative, and you play Devil's Advocate. (Literally, Satan's lawyer!) Okay?

Rob: Sure.

Jason: So did you see Dan Le Batard's column? I mean, did you see it?

... like a lot of teams, the Marlins believe Pujols to be older than the 31 he claims to be... Keep in mind, the Marlins told popular Dan Uggla they wouldn't ever give a player older than 30 a contract of more than four years. And now they're offering nine to Pujols, whose age they don't even know.

[snip]

Fielder fits Florida's philosophy a lot better than Pujols because you don't have to give him as much money or years, and you get him in his prime and ascending as opposed to Pujols, who has to terrify you coming off the worst year of his life now that, in the post-steroids era, there is no fountain of youth and the normal decline of a hitter begins around the 33, 34, 35 that Pujols indeed might be.

Rob: I saw the excerpt at Baseball Think Factory. And of course thought immediately of you. But this was the first time I can remember where an actual newspaper columnist gave any credence to the notion that maybe Albert Pujols is perhaps somewhat older than he's been letting on.

Jason: Right. Until now, questions about Pujols' age were mostly discussed at places like this (you should definitely click on that, by the way), rather than the Miami Herald, so this seems significant.

I've long thought that a) Pujols is older than he claims and b) this is the most important sports story that the press never talks about. And so I view Le Batard's column, in which he practically assumes Pujols' official age is a fiction, and the MIT Analytics conference, where you and a four other people went on record with the same belief, as somewhat vindicating. I will now declare victory and go home.

Rob: Well, it might be a little early for that. Now, if Pujols does not get a nine-year deal from anyone, that might suggest something of a consensus on this subject. There's little in the statistics to suggest that Pujols isn't actually 31, is there? Sure, he was terribly young for a great hitter when he broke in. But since then he's had a perfectly normal career path for a Top 10 hitter.

Jason: Well, if you squint hard enough, you might catch a glimpse of early decline in his numbers. His OPS+ has decreased every year since 2008. But I wouldn't want to make too much of that, because he's still playing at a superstar level, and really, who needs statistics when you've got a lot of rumors and hearsay evidence?

The case against Albert Pujols being 31 years old is a circumstantial one. It has to be, because no media outlet seems willing to actually investigate how old he is. And the only guy brave and handsome enough to bring it up all the time doesn't have the resources to hunt down his Dominican birth certificate.

Rob: You mean Le Batard? Yeah, he is a handsome devil, ain't he? Let me play Satan's Advocate for a moment, on two fronts. One, we don't know that nobody has investigated Pujols's birthday. We only know that nobody has presented any real evidence, one way or the other. It's quite possible that the Cardinals have done plenty of work, and found something. One way or the other. I have to think that any team considering a $200 million investment would spend, I don't know, twenty grand on a couple of private investigators. Or something.

Two, it's probably not all that surprising that people who saw Pujols in high school and juco were surprised that he was only (supposedly) 17 or 18 or whatever. I'll bet Herschel Walker didn't look like he was 17 when he was 17, either. There are basketball players who, at 17 or 18, are ready to compete at the highest level of the sport. Maybe Albert Pujols was just a Prodigy for the Ages?

Jason: Both excellent points. I used to think sentiment might prevent the Cardinals from doing their due diligence. But that's crazy. It's just too much money not to check.

I think the Cardinals must know how old he is. (Whitey says they do!) And I think this likely affected the abortive negotiations for an extension last March. But whereas the Cardinals might reason, as the Yankees did with Jeter, that he's worth more to them in terms of long-term revenues than to other teams, I don't see how it makes sense for Miami. But that's another topic.

To your second point, was Pujols a "Prodigy for Ages"? Maybe. I think Pujols is obviously physically different than other humans. He heals faster than Wolverine, for instance. But both things could be true: he could be a physical marvel and be lying about his age.

Either he's the only player in the modern era who could compete at an MVP-level at age 20, or he wasn't 20. Which is more likely?

Rob: I don't know, man. Maybe we were just due for another Ty Cobb / Ted Williams / etc. And for that matter, you seem to have completely forgotten Alex Rodriguez, who very nearly was the MVP at 20.

I do think the Cardinals' caution might suggest something interesting, which I mentioned last spring when their reported offer seemed absurdly low. If they had any interest in actually signing him for a long time.

Jason: Right, A-Rod. Alex Rodriguez was on cover of Baseball America when he was in high school. But Albert wasn't even drafted out of high school. And he was not, so far as I know, recruited by any of the big NCAA baseball programs. He went Maple Woods Community College (which may not be a Division I school, but they are a Region XVI powerhouse). He hit a grand slam and turned an unassisted triple play in his first game. Finally, after a year of that nonsense, he was drafted. In the 13th round. That is, every team in baseball had a dozen opportunities to draft Albert Pujols and declined. It's easy to say, "Well, sometimes the scouts are wrong. They missed on Piazza." Yes. But why were they wrong? Were they unimpressed with his talent, or did they think they were watching a proto-Danny Almonte?

Rob: Did you read the chapter about Pujols in Jonah Keri's book?

Jason: No.

Rob: It's possible that I've forgotten something, but I don't believe Jonah referenced any doubts about Pujols's age. He worked out for the Devil Rays brass in St. Petersburg and everyone presumably assumed he was 18 or 19, but they weren't impressed because he had sort of a funny build and nobody could figure out where he would play on the field. I mean, it all seems so ridiculous now. But it's not like scouts haven't missed guys before.

Jonah tells the story well, but it's just about the Rays. I would love to see a full accounting of all the baseball men who had absolutely no idea how good Pujols would be. Which reminds me, even if he was 21, at the time, aren't scouts still supposed to be able to guess what a player will do in the majors? Isn't that the whole point of the job?

Jason: Well, that and selling jeans.

Let me take one more stab at this.

Pujols was reportedly 16 when his family came to the United States. Had he been 17 (or 18, or 20), he would have been ineligible to attend high school (or play high school baseball). This seems like an obvious motive.

Further, many people—players, scouts, coaches—who saw him play in high school, college, and the minors believed, based on his size and otherworldly play ("one mammoth shot Albert launched at Liberty High School... landed on top of a 25-foot high air conditioning unit some 450 feet from home plate") that he was older than he claimed. It was an "open secret" at Maple Woods that he was "older than advertised." He "lied about his age" (in the other direction) to his future wife.

Despite his remarkable play in high school and college, something kept the scouts away. Something spooked them. Yes, he was... I hesitate to say "fat"... he didn't have a body that impressed baseball scouts. But that's the reason they missed out on the greatest player of his generation? I don't think the scouts were dumb. I don't think they couldn't see what was right in front of them. I think they thought they were watching a grown man competing against little boys. If you saw Matt Kemp play for a juco team, would you really know what to make of him?

Anyway, did I convince you, Dark Lord?

Rob: I won't be shocked if we someday discover that Albert Pujols had a baseball age. But -- and I have to admit that this is just now occurring to me—you've got a huge group of men who could use a really good excuse for missing Albert Pujols. Twenty-nine Scouting Directors and 29 General Managers—or 30 of each, if you want to count the Cardinals, because of course they passed for 12 rounds. Also hundreds of scouts, none of whom saw enough to persuade their bosses to use one of the first 401 picks in the 1999 draft on Pujols. Why haven't any of those people spoken up about their doubts? There must be some retired scouts who wouldn't have anything to lose by saying, "Yeah, I knew he could hit but I thought he was 22."

Find me three or four of those scouts and I think you'll have a slightly better case, counselor.

Poll
How old is Albert Pujols?
31
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Older than that
990 votes

1553 votes | Poll has closed

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Jason Brannon

Hot Corner Scribe

Jason Brannon is a sometime research assistant to Rob Neyer, wrote a chapter for Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders, and plays drums with Oh,... Read full bio


Comments

Display:

I guess I don’t understand. Why is Pujols supposedly older than 31?

Have I totally killed a joke or am I absolutely missing the point?

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 3:26 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

It is not a joke, it is an obsession. And one that becomes very tiresome, in the absence of any new evidence or arguments.

by Ursa Major on Nov 21, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Any new evidence? Is there even any old evidence?

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Evidence, not proof

Evidence is something which indicates. Proof is something that proves. The latest bit of evidence is that, according to Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald, the Marlins, “like a lot of teams, believe Pujols to be older than the 31 he claims to be.”

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

But that is not evidence.

Without further explanation, that quote by Le Batard is not evidence. Even taken as fact that “a lot of teams believe Pujols to be older than the 31 he claisms to be” is also not evidence. It is belief.

As an example, I believe in God. Is that evidence for the existence of God? No.

If the Marlins et al have evidence that has led them to construct this belief, and they may well, then that’s a different story, but without that evidence, all you’ve presented here is, literally, nonsense.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Evidence would be something like an account from Pujols’ high school career dated 1992 or slipping up his story or having a 17-year old son or something.

An article by a sports columnist that someone else believes something is decidedly not evidence.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Unless you think Le Batard was wrong or lying about the Marlins’ (and “several other teams”) belief that Pujols is older than listed, don’t you have to consider that evidence of some sort? The alternative is these multi-million dollar franchises believe something for no good reason, and which is not in their best interest.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

"Unless you think Le Batard was wrong or lying about the Marlins’ (and "several other teams") belief that Pujols is older than listed, don’t you have to consider that evidence of some sort?"

Nope. That’s really only evidence that there exist people who believe that Pujols is older than he says he is. It doesn’t really support any case that Pujols actually is older than he says he is.

by joof on Nov 21, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

No, you don’t. First of all, we only get Le Batard’s take on things. We don’t know if the Marlins officially think Pujols is 34, or Jeff Loria thinks he’s 34 or the parking attendant thinks he’s 34.

But second, and more important, how did they (whoever “they” is) come to that “belief?” Do they think there’s no way a 20-year old is that good at baseball or do they have real evidence for his age being greater than publicized? if so, what is it? All we have otherwise is there belief.

Unless the Deus comes ex the machina with a birth certificate or birth notices in a newspaper or affidavits by his parents or something, then there is no real evidence. All you seem to have is evidence that the Marlins et al believe in something.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

it's circular logic

why do we think pujols isn’t 31? because the marlins think that. why do the marlins think that? back to the same initial question.

you can’t use the marlins’ reasoning as good evidence, especially when it seems like they are looking for any reason to NOT have to pay an exorbitant amount of money this offseason, just like every offseason.

by BVHeck on Nov 21, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

As an example, I believe in God. Is that evidence for the existence of God? No.

I don’t think that’s helpful. The question of God’s existence isn’t really knowable. But Pujols has a birth certificate.


If the Marlins et al have evidence that has led them to construct this belief, and they may well, then that’s a different story,

Well, of course they have evidence. If they didn’t, they, and the other teams who assume (or know) that he’s not 31, are acting irrationally, and against their best interests.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think that’s helpful. The question of God’s existence isn’t really knowable. But Pujols has a birth certificate.

How is it any different? God’s existence is only unknowable because it’s something we don’t understand. We simply lack evidence for it.

Either way, however, you’re evidence cited herein is merely others’ belief.

Well, of course they have evidence. If they didn’t, they, and the other teams who assume (or know) that he’s not 31, are acting irrationally, and against their best interests.

Fine. What is it? When you publish something about Pujols being older than stated based on evidence, you need to publish the evidence for it. Until then, all you’ve got is someone else’s belief, which, founded or not, is all but useless for the critical mind.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Just realized maybe I’m coming off as a bit of a douche. That’s not the intent, so apologies if it’s being taken that way.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

You are not.

Asking him to give evidence and not belief isn’t douchey. On top of that, he keeps responding with beliefs. I get the “whispers,” but I fear these are from people who could have alternate agendas.

BTW, it clearly states he started as a SOPHOMORE at Fort Osage and not a freshman. There are lots of 16 yr old sophomores.

"Hope isn’t a very good strategy when you’re out there pitching and trying to get guys out." CJ Wilson 7/20/10

by Parman on Nov 22, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

And if you're going on someone else's belief only

with no actual hard evidence or documentation, thats dangerous.

by NastyNate82 on Nov 21, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

i don't think you are aware

of how difficult it can be to find proper documentation in some south american countries. the cardinals had to do a ton of research to let MLB sign Carlos Martinez last offseason, who had a contract with Boston negated 2 years prior.

by BVHeck on Nov 21, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

See Oviedo, Juan Carlos.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Technically speaking it is evidence

Evidence is anything that is probative. This means any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is of consequence to the determination of the issue more probable or less probable than it would be without the evidence. Federal Rules of Evidence 401.

It is isn’t very strong evidence, but it is certainly true that the fact that the Marlins believe Pujols to be older than 31 makes it more probable that he is in fact older than 31 than it was before we received that information.

by Benignuman on Nov 21, 2011 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Hmm. Even using that definition, I still disagree. The likelihood of Pujols being 31 or 34 or 906 does not change if the Marlins do or do not believe it.

Plus, given the Marlins’ depth of insight into the Juan Carlos Oviedo situation, I’d actually argue that them believing Pujols is older makes it less likely. Not really, of course.

In any event, all we know is that “the Marlins” believe this. We don’t know what part of “the Marlins.” We don’t know why they believe it. Like I said earlier, if they do in fact have evidence (real evidence) that Pujols is eleventybillion years old, then that may change things, but the fact that they believe something is not and never will be a part of this band’s repertoire evidence for that something being true.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, as an example, I believe in God. Is that evidence, then, for the existence of God? No, and I would certainly hope that no-one would treat it as such!

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Hopefully (for your sake) you are not a lawyer.

Please don’t try to tell a federal judge that your “evidence” for some assertion is your client’s unsubstantiated belief that it is so. I would fear for your personal safety.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 2, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

DEPENDS ON YOUR MODEL

AN ACCURATE BAYESIAN MODEL CREATES A PROBABILITY AS A BELIEF STATEMENT, RIGHT? IF SO, THEN DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF THE PRIORS, THE MODEL, AND SO FORTH, ONE MAY ARRIVE AT A HIGH CERTAINTY BELIEF STATEMENT THAT CAN SERVE AS EVIDENCE, NO?

by TOLAXOR on Nov 21, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

WHAT WAS THAT?

SPEAK UP! I CAN’T HEAR YOU!
OH, WAIT A SECOND… LET ME GET MY GRAND-KID IN HERE TO SHOW ME HOW TO WORK THE shift key.

by Tom Ruane on Nov 22, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

My belief is that people who use all caps in posts

are incapable of reason. How is that for evidence Tolaxor?

"Hope isn’t a very good strategy when you’re out there pitching and trying to get guys out." CJ Wilson 7/20/10

by Parman on Nov 22, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

WHY ARE WE YELLING?

by Phrozen on Nov 22, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

In other words, I can’t prove Albert Pujols is 34 years old. But lots of little pieces of evidence, perhaps none of which would convince me by itself, have me leaning in that direction when taken together.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

This sounds a lot like the birther debate

Perhaps if Pujols provided his long-form birth certificate, that would please you…

by msgg139 on Nov 21, 2011 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

I think, just as it was with Obama, the burden of proof is firmly on you.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

You mean the official and actual legal document?

That’s what the short form is.

And in any case I’m certain the Cardinals have it – that’s why they don’t even bother to address the issue.

Nor has any other actual, you know, TEAM.

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Nov 22, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

And in any case I’m certain the Cardinals have it

Well, as long as you’re certain, that’s good enough for me.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 22, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

More stuff

Joe Posnanski mentions the Pujols age issue here, especially as it connects to high school and juco:
 
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/10/pujols-and-respect.html

by HawkeyeEdward on Nov 21, 2011 4:09 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Rob said “There are basketball players who, at 17 or 18, are ready to compete at the highest level of the sport..”

Exactly! By your associate’s standard we should question what age Lebron James, Greg Oden and many other players are. Seldom a college game goes by when I don’t think to myself “man that guy looks old for a college student.”

The idea that Pujols’ rapid ascent constitutes evidence that he lied about his age is risible. It only proves that he was closer to MLB ready than people thought he was. After all, it wouldn’t be difficult to name a ton of 22-year-olds taken a lot higher in the 1999 draft who took a long time to make it to the majors, if they did at all.

by hisownfool on Nov 21, 2011 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

By your associate’s standard we should question what age Lebron James, Greg Oden and many other players are.

I don’t think it’s a great comparison, partly because a) it’s exceedingly rare for someone to jump from high school or single year of juco to MLB, whereas it happens in the NBA all the time, and b) I assume nobody questioned Lebron’s age because people knew him in high school, junior high, grade school, etc. And he didn’t immigrate here at the last possible moment of his high school eligibility.

In case it isn’t obvious, the question of Pujols’ age isn’t important in evaluating his career to date. It’s important because he’s a free agent, and the difference between what he would garner if he’s 34 as opposed to 31 is measured in the high eight-figure range.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t want to belabor the point. Really. But I only brought up the question of appearances because the “case” for Pujols being a liar, which is what we are talking about here, consists of two things: his appearance and his precocity.

That being the case, I was merely pointing out that Pujols was far from unique in looking older than his stated age.

As for precocity, well, everything Pujols has done since his rookie year has been historic. His record of sustained excellence over the past 11 years has drawn comparisons to Ted Williams.

That being the case, is it really so suspicious that he performed at such a high level at such a young age? Many of the great ones are in MLB at a relatively early age. That’s how we know we are dealing with once-in-a-generation players.

What’s more, let’s assume he’s a liar and he really was 24, not 21 when he broke into MLB. Name another player whose first 11 seasons were as dominant as his? I mention this to reinforce my previous point: he’s a once-in-generation-talent. That being the case, his rapid ascent isn’t THAT mysterious or, in this case, suspicious.

I agree that it makes a great deal of difference to the team signing him whether he’s 31 or 34. As a Nationals STH, I want no part of that contract. But if we’re gonna call him a liar then we need more than inferences from appearance and precocity.

My .02

by hisownfool on Nov 21, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not crazy about the term “liar.” People lie about many things, great and small, and lying about one’s age squarely falls into the latter category. Like me, I’m sure you know people who lie about their age out of vanity, and like me I’m sure you don’t call them liars, though it may technically be true.

Likewise, I don’t consider it a great sin for Pujols to have lied about his age to this point. He certainly hasn’t defrauded the Cardinals. And if the team that signs him knows his true age, even if it is kept from the public, that too would not register as any great sin. I would only throw around the term “liar” if he signed a lengthy contract that he would not otherwise receive had his true age been known to the signing team. That would be fraud.

On the other hand, with rumors about Pujols’ age swirling for well over a decade, any team that offered him a dumb contract without thoroughly looking into the matter has nobody to blame but themselves.

Anyway, my intention here was not to out Pujols as a liar. I think this is an important story, one the sports media almost never mentions, certainly not nationally-known columnists for big newspapers. Why this is so interests me, too, but we can talk about that later. Mostly I wanted to discuss this before it became “old news,” which is what the dead-enders will say if it’s ever revealed that Pujols is 34.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

and good for you Jason

just like all the baseball writers who never wrote about guys on steroids, yet I am sure they saw all the signs.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

People don’t talk about it because there is no story! All there is is a bunch of rumors!

Prove me wrong! Cite some evidence, real evidence, that there is a disparity!

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Tejada

Were there rumors swirling around about his “true” age before it was revealed that he was, in fact, older? I don’t remember the lead up, just the story breaking that he was a couple years older than advertised. I’d be curious if there was a similar (albeit smaller) debate about that and whether there was any evidence before there was the conclusive evidence.

by Cauzneffct on Nov 23, 2011 6:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Keith Law

mentioned in a recent chat that it is a widespread thought, across baseball front offices, that Pujols is not the age he says he is.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2011 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

It’s funny how this suddenly gains noteriety when he’s a free agent, not that I don’t possibly believe he’s older.

by hrv2010 on Nov 21, 2011 5:52 PM EST reply actions  

not really

Neyer has been writing about this before he came over to SB Nation.

And it really wouldn’t matter before he became a free agent because only one team would be affected. There are plenty of other teams that could be affected if he is not as old (young) as he says he is, and there are plenty of people in baseball, apparently, that don’t believe he is 31 years old.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe he did steroids.

Or maybe he’s an alien. Or maybe an alien-human hybrid, or perhaps a humanoid.

My evidence is because he’s too good. We all know the best baseball players are aliens anyway, like Ruth or Williams.

This is not very different from debating whether or not Jeff Bagwell or Frank Thomas did steroids because they “look” like they did, other than the article by Le Batard that reports teams are looking into it. He says “a lot of teams” don’t believe his listed age is the correct one. What teams? Is there a source, or was that a gossip column?

Look at how well Ted Williams performed when he was 20. How can a man do that? How can the same man leave baseball two separate times and come out as the best player in the league twice? That doesn’t make any sense. Therefore, I have evidence he’s an alien. Certainly not as plausible as lying about your age, but the amount of evidence is similar.

Astro Travellin'

by BlackOps on Nov 21, 2011 9:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Lebatard

is not the only writer who is saying that. Keith Law has said it a few times, and Neyer has written about it for a few years now.

If Lebatard’s source is a front office type, why would he name names? He can’t.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Sources indicate that you are a Padres fan. Sources also indicate that Pujols is a 12-year old girl from Weehawken, NJ, that it’s getting cold outside, and that I need another beer.

by Phrozen on Nov 21, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Youre right, even if he could, why would he?

That’s sports journalism 101, the anonymous source.

Astro Travellin'

by BlackOps on Nov 21, 2011 9:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Look at how well Ted Williams performed when he was 20. How can a man do that? How can the same man leave baseball two separate times and come out as the best player in the league twice? That doesn’t make any sense. Therefore, I have evidence he’s an alien. Certainly not as plausible as lying about your age, but the amount of evidence is similar.

Williams is a bad example. He was a rookie in 1939. That’s pre-integration. MLB was drawing talent from a much smaller population and the quality of competition wasn’t nearly as good as now. It’s much rarer for twenty-one year olds to play at an MVP-level (7.7 WAR) today.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 21, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

that said, it happens—

a-rod was much better, as has already been discussed, and ken griffey and andruw jones both had better age-20/21 seasons in the last 20 years.

it’s not evidence pujols is 31, but to be honest pujols being good at a young age seems like a complete dead end for disputing his age. right now his aging curve makes sense, especially given the constant beating his lower body has taken over the last two years, and he’s had a better career than griffey or jones and a more consistent 28-31 period than a-rod. this isn’t cesar cedeno.

by Dan Moore on Nov 21, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

It may be rare, but it is not evidence that he is/was older than stated.

by Phrozen on Nov 22, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I will say this

I find it interesting that so many people are willing to automatically take Pujols at his word [on how old he is without seeing his birth-certificate] when so many people have called Obama a liar for claiming he was born in Hawaii. I have no problem with a ball club being skeptical of his age when they will be forking out nearly $200m for nine years of service.

That being said, I am in no position to say that Pujols is one day older than he claims to be.

That being said, is any player worth $200m? or $175m? or even $100m? I think not.

by the flame on Nov 22, 2011 12:39 AM EST reply actions  

I don't know why you're surprised by that

I’d imagine the cohort that’s both skeptical of obama’s heritage and not skeptical of pujols’s birthdate is so small as to be practically nonexistent.

by Dan Moore on Nov 22, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

OH MY GOD

That’s a fucking parody account.

will do ANYTHING for a rec

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 23, 2011 5:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Here's me being more polite.

Ahem. The twitter you linked here you kind sir is simply a Cardinal fan who is making fun of the minority of Cards fans who are dumb. (Think the picture on his profile picture) And really people like that are so nonsensical anyway, when the hell did we start caring what they thought?

That twitter right there is not really proof (par for the course with you all over this page I guess). I was just frustrated with my comment above at how a guy who works with Rob Neyer (who I usually enjoy reading) used such a poor poor excuse of journalism by Dan Le Bastard.

will do ANYTHING for a rec

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 23, 2011 5:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, even though I just got owned, I'm happy.

What you just did was proof. I wish you would have done that for this whole comment section. (Except the Pujols situation has none, so everything is just baseless conjecture…)

will do ANYTHING for a rec

by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 23, 2011 6:07 AM EST up reply actions  

You realize Obama hasn't claimed he was born in Hawaii?

He has proven it beyond a shadow of a doubt with actual evidence and irrefutable proof.

"Hope isn’t a very good strategy when you’re out there pitching and trying to get guys out." CJ Wilson 7/20/10

by Parman on Nov 22, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

You accept the facts available - and ignore factless speculation based on envy

anything else is silly and a waste of time.

As a Cardinal fan that has nothing to do with whether I want my team giving a (next year) 32 year old a possibly ruinous 9 year contract – no matter what he means to the team.

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Nov 22, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I started shaving everyday when I was 12

and when I was 14 and striking out 15 per 9 ip in little league I had a mustache. Made same of the other kid’s parents whisper. But I do have a birth certificate. I don’t know how good the Dominican records are.

by Brian Cartwright on Nov 22, 2011 4:25 AM EST reply actions  

My buddy Kent had a real beard at 15 - he used to buy the beer

of course it was only 18 in those days and much more lax

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Nov 22, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Well played, Neyer

This is a reasoned argument from Rob.

Meanwhile, Jason continues to tilt at windmills.

by GBSimons on Nov 22, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Very silly argument. For one, when he was 17 no team would give a damn if he lied about his age – they care about if he can hit in the majors. After 8 years, if he does pan out, if, if, if – they don’t look that far ahead. That was just an error in judgment. Maybe he hit a golf ball in Paul Richards’ living room.

Another thing is it’s tiresome when a HOF level hitter comes along and people go to great lengths to add caveats. I know there’s possibly or probably outside issues, but part of considering Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens seems to include “they’re an all-time great! There must be something fishy here!” I’m sorry to see it here, but it’s what the press does. You know, it is possible for a player better than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or whomever to come along. Why wouldn’t it be? Sooner or later, given enough years, it’s even likely.

The only party that really should be concerned is the one who he signs a contract with. Otherwise, who cares? And why string together a bunch of “there is a chance that…”s and think it in any way proves a point?

by stephsbear on Nov 22, 2011 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

Nonsense when judging when/where he was drafted

They draft college guys all the time, the scouts just clearly built some sort of group think – as they often do – a consensus they would claim.

And come on, there’s no evidence at all.
How old is LaBron again?

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."
- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower

by lietothegirls on Nov 22, 2011 3:28 PM EST reply actions  

ever tried to start a primitive fire?

because if you have, you know this old saying isn’t true. Same goes for the Pujols age debate: the more asshats like Jason Brannon and Dan Le Batard rub, the more smoke they cause. Call me when they get a flame.

"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum

by scoot on Nov 23, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Because you don’t have the guts to come out and say it. You wink at it, nod at it, and imply it, but you are too gutless to say it. You are calling Albert Pujols a liar. You are saying that he has been lying about his age for at least 12 years.

Couple things:

1) Maybe don’t call people “gutless” while using an anonymous handle. But if you have to, at least note the irony.

2) Would it be brave if I called him a liar? In the first place, I don’t know he lied about his age, I think he lied about his age. And secondly, if he lied about his age, I think he did so for understandable reasons—namely, wanting to go to high school. It is much, much better to go to high school than to not, on the off chance you don’t turn into the best baseball player of your generation.

If your aunt fudges her age out of vanity, do you shout “liar!” to her face? This sonofabitch lied about his age to get into the Marines. Sure, he jumped on a couple grenades to save his buddies, and they gave him the Medal of Honor, but to me he’s just a goddamned liar. Can you see why someone wouldn’t want to throw around the term “liar” in every situation?

And you have zero evidence to back this assertion up—zip, nil, nada.

I know he plays for your favorite team and it offends you that I would question his veracity, but you should really stop saying that. There is a difference between evidence and proof. When people pointed to Barry Bonds’ crazy physique and insane performance at ages 36-39, they said, “that guy’s on something.” They didn’t have proof, but they had pretty decent evidence. The evidence that Pujols is older than he claims to be is not great evidence—you wouldn’t take it to court—but for many people, some of whom (per Le Batard and Keith Law) work in major league front offices (and may have better evidence than we do), it’s enough to tip the scales in the direction of “he’s older than listed.” Admittedly, the evidence we have is mostly supposition and hearsay. It is evidence of circumstance rather than direct evidence. But, to my thinking, the opinions of front office types—by themselves—lead me to think it is more likely than not. I’m not 100 percent sure, more like 60-70 percent sure. I wouldn’t bet the farm on such a proposition, but I’d probably put a little money on it. (Note: I have a gambling problem.) Be honest: if you were a GM, would you sign him to a nine-year deal without checking it out first?

I have to ask, are you a journalist? Do you know what the word "investigation" means, or the noun phrase "investigative reporter"?

Am I a journalist?! Honestly, it’s like you think we work in an office where people yell “Woodstein!” and out come Robert Redford and Dustin Hoffman. I mostly write goofy essays on a baseball website about non-existent booster clubs and stupid-looking hats. I mean to entertain. If I’m a journalist, clearly I’m on the lowest rung of the ladder. The guy above me prints school lunch menus for the number two paper in a town of 600 people and the guy below me hands out flyers alerting people that if they buy one pizza, they can get a second pizza of equal or lesser value for free.

I wrote about Pujols’ age because I think it’s an incredibly interesting and important sports story. The best baseball player of his generation is weeks or perhaps days away from signing his last contract, several teams think his stated age is a fiction, and he’s already turned down at least one nine-year deal. Is that not fascinating to you?

Believe it or not, though I’m not a reporter (let alone an “investigative reporter,” sheesh), a few months ago I actually tried to do some real reporting on this. I mean, it shouldn’t have come to this. Pedro Gomez or Tom Verducci should be doing this, not the guy who wrote this (I’m super proud of that one, by the way. It got three tweets). Anyway, I met someone who had a low-level job with a Midwest League team the year Pujols played in Peoria. He told me it was widely known (assumed) around the league that he was older than listed. I tried to get him to put me in touch with other people he knew who could at least confirm that much, but he wouldn’t do that. (And really, why would he? Who am I?)

Actually, thinking about it now, I should have promised him I wouldn’t tell anyone he was the guy who put me in touch with them. See, that’s the kind of thing Pedro Gomez probably knows by instinct. But I’m not a reporter, and certainly not a “journalist” (like a reporter, only richer and more self-important) so I didn’t think of that. I tried to think of someone else to cold call, but why would anyone in a position to know tell me anything? The only way to get the story, I reasoned, is to go to the Dominican Republic. But a) I’m not a reporter, b) I don’t know anyone in the the DR and don’t speak the language, c) are birth certificates public record in the DR?, d) assuming I could actually see it, how would I know what I was looking at? How could I authenticate it… and on, and on. But mostly I didn’t go because I don’t have any money, and Rob won’t even let me expense my Mountain Dew.

So I gave up. If he doesn’t re-sign w/ St. Louis during the season, Jon Heyman will look into this, I figured. Well, here we are. If you think I violated j-school ethics by speculating on a baseball website about Albert Pujols’ age, go tell Romenesko, or complain to Le Batard. If you think I shouldn’t be allowed to even speculate about this unless I’m actively clutching his birth certificate in my hand, fine. I mean, I think that’s crazy, and if you believe that, I hope you’re enjoying your first visit to the internet.

You think Albert Pujols is older than he says?

Oh, but I do!

BACK IT UP, or do us all a favor and shut up.

I like you. You seem fun.

by Jason Brannon on Nov 23, 2011 7:11 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Seems like the reply function must have been out of order or something.

Admittedly, the evidence we have is mostly supposition and hearsay.

Mostly? It’s ALL supposition and hearsay.

Pedro Gomez or Tom Verducci should be doing this…

Maybe there’s a reason they’re not doing it? You know, like, it’s a non-story?

by Phrozen on Nov 23, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

journamalism
Maybe don’t call people "gutless" while using an anonymous handle.

Gutless is as gutless does. You’re the one that’s getting paid to write for this website, and you’re the one who chose to impugn Albert Pujols’ character without evidence.

If your aunt fudges her age out of vanity, do you shout "liar!" to her face?

My aunt isn’t a public figure, and my aunt isn’t trying to obtain a contract for at least two hundred million dollars under false pretenses, as you allege with Pujols. If Pujols is actually older than he says he is, and he is trying to negotiate eight-digit salaries for when he is 42 years old, that’s fraud.

you should really stop saying that.

Why? You don’t have any evidence. At all. Is there a teenage Albert Jr. hidden away in the D.R.? Anyone with fond memories of going to Albert’s 18th birthday party in 1994? Pictures of Albert in an elementary school yearbook from 1983? Anything?

I like you. You seem fun.

Sorry. I guess I should call people liars, but do it in a funny way. Anyway, I hope you liked the Viva El Birdos blog entry that called you a Pujols birther. Good stuff.

by Vidor1 on Nov 23, 2011 9:33 PM EST reply actions  

Seriously

C’mon, man. A guy says he’s thirty one, then he’s probably 31… Unless you’re a racist.

http://wheremccarverat.com/2011/12/06/if-you-dont-believe-albert-pujols-is-31-heres-your-hood/

by Tron C on Dec 22, 2011 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

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